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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3959; (P) 1.3996; (R1) 1.4059; More… Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral again with current retreat. On the downside, firm break of 1.3930 support will indicate rejection by 1.4014/7 cluster resistance. That would keep the rebound from 1.3538 corrective, and turn bias to the downside for 1.3725 support. Nevertheless, sustained break […]
The post USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
The GBPUSD moved lower earlier today, breaking to a new low not seen since August 5. The decline tested that prior low at 1.32594, where buyers stepped in to stall the fall. A sharp reversal followed after news that President Trump was preparing massive tariff increases on Chinese imports, triggering a strong rebound in the pound.
The rally carried the pair back above the broken swing area/floor between 1.3323 and 1.3341, and extended to a high of 1.3370. That move retested two key levels: the 61.8% retracement of the rise from the August 1 low at 1.3364, and the swing low from Wednesday at 1.33695. Sellers capped the upside at that zone, and the pair has since rotated lower.
Currently, price is holding within the old floor area around 1.3323–1.3341, where buyers are attempting to reestablish support. The failed downside break may prove to have been an exhaustion move, but for buyers to regain broader control, the pair must push back above the 100-hour moving average at 1.33887. A further break above the 200-hour moving average at 1.34227 would strengthen bullish momentum and shift the bias more clearly to the upside.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
The St. Louis Fed Pres. Musalem is speaking and says:
Fed’s goals are in tension
Inflation running high, labor market showing signs of potential weakness
Balanced approach on monetary policy only works if inflation expectations are anchored
Less able to respond to short-term labor market fluctuations if inflation expectations become unanchored
Right now inflation expectations a little elevated up to 2 years out
Long-term inflation expectations are anchored
inflation materially above target.
Labor market looks at full employment, could we get
Expect tariff impact on inflation to fade by 2nd half of 2026.
Only 10% of inflation we are seeing is tariffs
Expects labor market. In some orderly way
prices to stop increasing due to tariffs after mid 2026.
There are material risks around baseline expectations.
Inflation could rise more, labor market could weaken more.
Supported September rate cut as insurance against labor market weakening.
Policy is between modestly restrictive and neutral.
Financial conditions are accommodative.
Open-minded on potential further rate cuts as further insurance.
Believe we should tread with caution.
Limited room for more easing before policy gets overly accommodative.
Monetary policy should continue to lean against inflation
Expects 4Q GDP to be healthy
GDP growth is likely to be close to potential for the year.
Data suggst all households are spending.
Anecdotes shall low income households stretching to do so
Consumer spending by some groups like Hispanics has softened.
Cutting back on spending because of inflation, not from job market.
Really important to achieve 2% inflation goal.
St. Louis Fed will conduct on the survey to measure labor market this month
Overall, he’s more dovish than hawkish—willing to cut rates to protect the labor market—but his caution on inflation means he’s not strongly dovish. He’s positioning himself as a measured dove rather than an aggressive one.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
The price of crude oil is trading sharply lower by $2.48 and $59.05 as the market reacts to the prospects of higher tariffs slowing growth and demand. Hopes for continued peace in the Middle East is also an influence as is the production increases.
Pres. Trump said yesterday the gasoline will be at $2 per gallon shortly
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
The Nobel Peace prize was awarded to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. The five-member committee reportedly decided to nominate Machado by Oct. 6, according to earlier reports. Some sizeable bets were made late Thursday:
Investigation launched: Norwegian officials are probing suspicious Polymarket trades tied to the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize announcement.
Suspicious bets: At least three traders placed large wagers on Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado winning, just hours before the official announcement.
Profits made: The trades generated about $90,000 in combined profit, with one account (“Trader 6741”) earning around $53,500.
Market disruption: Machado’s odds spiked Thursday evening, shifting what had been a tight race with Yulia Navalnaya, Donald Trump, and Pope Leo XIV.
Leak concerns: The timing raised fears of insider information leaks, as the committee reportedly made its decision by October 6.
Official response: Nobel Institute spokesperson Erik Aasheim confirmed they are “looking into it.”
The White House has called the vote political. So far Pres. Trump has remained quiet but I can hear “rigged” and “political” along with the potential for more.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
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