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What starts with rare earth restrictions will grow into a long era of ‘lawfare,’ and the U.S. economy is not yet fully prepared to challenge China.
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Trump threatens to use government shutdown to cut ‘popular Democrat programs’
President Donald Trump said his administration plans to use the government shutdown to permanently cut government programs popular with Democrats. -
Trump threatens to use government shutdown to cut ‘popular Democrat programs’
President Donald Trump said his administration plans to use the government shutdown to permanently cut government programs popular with Democrats. -
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A leap of faith is required anytime an investment is based on predicting what the future will hold in five to 10 years. -
Fed’s Barr: Not seeing a generalized spillover of tariffs into services inflation
- Some components of services inflation stem from high stock prices
- There is a lot of resilience in the US economy
- Mostly in labor market, AI will be complimentary
- There may be two economies right now, with upper income doing well and lower income struggling
- Long term neutral rate has gone up a little but, based on productivity from gen AI
- Separate question is how restrictive is the Fed’s rate right now
- Data does show AI may be having some labor market effect
Notably, the Fed’s Kashkari said “I basically agree with everything you said” after Barr’s speech.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
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Fed’s Barr: Not seeing a generalized spillover of tariffs into services inflation
- Some components of services inflation stem from high stock prices
- There is a lot of resilience in the US economy
- Mostly in labor market, AI will be complimentary
- There may be two economies right now, with upper income doing well and lower income struggling
- Long term neutral rate has gone up a little but, based on productivity from gen AI
- Separate question is how restrictive is the Fed’s rate right now
- Data does show AI may be having some labor market effect
Notably, the Fed’s Kashkari said “I basically agree with everything you said” after Barr’s speech.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
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Gold takes a dive
It’s been a long time coming but some real profit taking in gold finally arrived.
Gold tested $4000 again about an hour ago and this time it didn’t hold. That led to a heavy round of selling that saw it quickly fall to $3945.
I think it would be healthy to see gold scale back to around $3700 but the bulls have answered every challenge so far. This one — not coincidentally — is also coming alongside some selling in high-flying equities.
Even more importantly, the US dollar is strong today following upbeat comments on the strength of the consumer from Delta Airlines. A reacceleration — and re-heating — of the US dollar would be something of a gamechanger in the current state of play in many markets, though gold certainly has multiple factors supporting it.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
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EUR/USD remains pinned near lows as the attention turns to the Fed
EUR/USD remains practically flat, right above one-month lows at 1.1600. The pair trades at 1.1615 at the time of writing, with upside attempts finding sellers, as France’s political uncertainty keeps investors on their toes. -
U.S. Treasury auctions of $22 billion of the 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.734%
- High-yield 4.734%
- WI level at the time of the auction 4.73%
- Tail 0.4 basis points versus 6 month average -0.2 basis points.
- Bid to cover 2.38Xversus 6 month average 2.37X
- Directs 26.9% versus 6 month average 25.8%
- Indirects 65.5% versus 6 month average 61.2%
- Dealers 8.7% versus 6 month average of 13.0%
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
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United States 30-Year Bond Auction increased to 4.734% from previous 4.651%
United States 30-Year Bond Auction increased to 4.734% from previous 4.651%
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