News

Gold (XAU/USD) trades around $4,021 on Thursday, down 0.50% on the day at the time of writing, yet comfortably holding above the key $4,000 psychological mark.

The GBPUSD has moved below a swing area floor between 1.3321 to 1.3341. That area found support earlier today, but remained a key area for both buyers and sellers. Stay above and the floor remains in place. Move below and the floor gives way. The floor has given way.

Downside momentum has driven the pair to a fresh low at 1.3292, keeping sellers firmly in control. The next key target sits at the August 5 low of 1.3259. A decisive break below that level would shift focus toward the 200-day moving average at 1.3167—a benchmark the pair hasn’t traded under since early April.

That moving average also aligns closely with the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 range at 1.3140, and falls inside a broader swing area between 1.3140 and 1.3203. This zone represents a critical test: if reached, it could either attract buyers looking for value or open the door to an extended downside push.

For now, the path lower remains the bias as long as the pair holds beneath today’s broken floor. Sellers will be eyeing that cluster of support levels as the next major destination.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

YouTube is rolling out a feature for previously terminated channels to apply to create a new channel after scrutiny from Republicans and President Donald Trump.

US home builder stocks have fallen about 9% this week, in part because President Trump posted over the weekend to berate them, saying they’re sitting on too many empty building lots.

“They have to start building homes,” Trump wrote.

That was followed by Bill Pulte — the same person who has been spearheading the politicization of the Fed — writing this:

“When I was young and growing up in the Pulte Homes business, Big Homebuilders had less than 10% of the market. Today, that number is 50% and some say 60%. With great market share comes great responsibility … I encourage all builders to realize this, and sooner rather than later.”

Pulte is the grandson of the founder of Pulte Homes, which has a $24 billion market cap. That last line of his post sounds like a threat and that’s part of the reason that home builders are down but it’s not all.

The market is increasingly worried about a re-acceleration of the US economy, leading to higher rates. Consumer spending indications are improving while the US government continues to run massive fiscal deficits. That could ultimately lead to Fed rate hikes or higher Treasury yields.

Have a look at the chart of the homebuidlers ETF ($XHB) and note the failure to take out the old highs along with a head-and-shoulders top in the past month. The homebuilding industry is already in a harsh recession and is being strangled by higher labor prices due to deportations.

This isn’t a good combination for them.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Investing Club holds its “Morning Meeting” every weekday at 10:20 a.m. ET.

“There’s evidence that you can take models … and you can hack them to remove their guardrails,” ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt said.

GBP/USD tumbles during the North American session on Thursday as the US Dollar reaches a 9-week high, as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY), hitting 99.51 as hedge funds increase bets on USD gains towards the year-end.

United States 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.03% vs previous 4.06%

The US dollar is continuing higher as the market is getting its head around the idea that the US consumer — and the economy in general — are strong. I really want to highlight the comments from Delta’s CEO following Q3 earnings and I expect we’re going to get much more of that in the weeks ahead. He emphasized increasing consumer spending, particularly from high end consumers.

See: Consumers are flush: Airline stocks rise as Delta sees strong demand

The US dollar is broadly stronger today and CAD is a slight underperformer. I don’t see a good reason for CAD selling but we’re carefully watching trade negotiations. It looks like there is some kind of larger deal being worked out but the Canadian auto industry looks like it could be in for some bad news.

Domestically, Canada isn’t doing as well as the US but there are signs the housing rout is ending as inventory numbers start to sag and sales pick up in the Toronto area. I worry about a heavy wave of listings next Spring though. Gold is certainly a tailwind for Canada but to really get some loonie strength, we need broader commodity strength, including in oil. If we get some increasing optimism on consumers, that could come quickly.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD had been trading within a 40 trading range going back to last Friday. That range was from 1.3931 to 1.3971. That is just too narrow and wrote about it in this post today.

“….when ranges get this tight, the market is primed for a break. Right now, the 5-day high sits near 1.3971 and the low is anchored at 1.3931. A decisive move beyond either of those boundaries could trigger momentum and a directional run.”

The break occurred, and the price has run to a new high for the day and week up to 1.4011.

For buyers, the close risk level is the high from last week at 1.3985. A more conservative risk marker sits just below, at the old high from this week and last Friday near 1.3970. Holding above those keeps the bullish case alive. The buyers are making their push — the question is, how far can it extend?

On the daily chart, a key upside target looms at the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline, coming in at 1.4018 (see daily chart below). A break above that zone would add conviction to the bullish bias and open the path for further momentum.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.