News

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is having a knee jerk reaction on the back of comments from United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

• “If there Is no progress, US will step back as mediators in this process”

I pray this war ends but Russia is in an interesting spot here. They can stall and it sounds like Trump would possibly turn to secondary sanctions if it falls apart but at the same time, he would drop military support for Ukraine, or at least limit it. If that’s the case, Russia could calculate it could win the war outright in time.

That second scenario would be bullish for oil prices, particularly if the US went hard on Russia secondary sanctions.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• If auto makers can’t get parts we don’t want to penalize them
• There is great support for a tax deal
• Not at all worried about the auto industry
• India coming along great, think we have a deal on tariffs
• He will visit Africa
• He will speak to Australians

More signs point to the first tariff deal being with India, as I speculated.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Synopsis:
Goldman Sachs has revised its USDCAD forecasts lower, citing stronger-than-expected Canadian data, a supportive fiscal policy stance, and diminished expectations for Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cuts. While Canada’s close ties to the U.S. may limit broader gains on the crosses, Goldman expects the Canadian dollar to outperform the U.S. dollar through the remainder of 2025.

Key Drivers Behind the Revision

• Emerging Trade War Effects
  Canada’s recent payrolls report may be the first sign that the U.S.-led trade war is beginning to weigh on hard economic data beyond the U.S.

• BoC Defers to Fiscal Support
  The BoC is emphasizing fiscal policy—not monetary easing—as the primary buffer against trade-related growth risks. This stance reduces the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts.

• CAD Supportive Backdrop
  A combination of less dovish BoC policy expectations and proactive government stimulus is strengthening the outlook for the Canadian dollar, especially versus the USD.

• USDCAD Forecast Revisions
  Goldman Sachs’ updated projections are:
  • 3-month: 1.36 (previous: 1.40)
  • 6-month: 1.35 (previous: 1.39)
  • 12-month: 1.34 (previous: 1.38)

Conclusion

Goldman Sachs is growing more confident in the CAD’s relative strength against the U.S. dollar, supported by macroeconomic stability and policy alignment. However, due to Canada’s close economic ties with the U.S., broader CAD gains on cross-currency pairs may remain limited.

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.

Tags

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Lutnick said a trade deal is “done, done, done, done,” but he declined to say which country he was talking about.

Shares of Starbucks have fallen 8% this year, as investors worry about tariffs and how they will affect consumer spending.

House Education and Workforce Committee Republicans have released their plan to overhaul the country’s student loan and financial aid system.

Amazon was smart to set the record straight to avoid the unwanted ire of the Trump administration.

Base Power is a Texas-based startup, backed by Lennar, that rents batteries to homeowners and then manages the power going into and out of the home.

the