USD/CHF Daily Outlook

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7941; (P) 0.7968; (R1) 0.7983; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidations from 0.7871 is still in progress. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, but upside should be limited by 0.8054 support turned resistance to bring another fall. Below 0.7871 will extend the larger down trend to 61.8% projection of […]

The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7941; (P) 0.7968; (R1) 0.7983; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidations from 0.7871 is still in progress. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, but upside should be limited by 0.8054 support turned resistance to bring another fall. Below 0.7871 will extend the larger down trend to 61.8% projection of […]

The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1541 (vs. estimate at 7.1806)

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.

Previous close was 7.1780

PBOC injected 75.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.40%

  • 98.5bn yuan mature today
  • net drain 23bn yuan

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1541 (vs. estimate at 7.1806)

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.

Previous close was 7.1780

PBOC injected 75.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.40%

  • 98.5bn yuan mature today
  • net drain 23bn yuan

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

How have interest rates expectations changed after the first tariff letters?

Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 50 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 22 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoE: 51 bps (75% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 28 bps (76% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA: 60 bps (85% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 31 bps (57% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 10 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 12 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

We got some slightly more hawkish repricing for a couple central banks. The pricing for the Fed consolidated around 50 bps after the NF report which is the Fed’s baseline scenario of two rate cuts by year-end.

For the ECB there’s some hawkish repricing probably due to positive rumors around a US-EU trade deal. In fact, a trade deal would further decrease uncertainty and likely lead to increased economic activity, especially given the fiscal and monetary impulses. We might even see the market price out the last rate cut altogether with a trade deal.

There was also a hawkish repricing for the RBA after they surprisingly delayed the rate cut and sounded cautious about rushing on monetary easing.

Finally, despite the US tariff letters threatening much higher rates if countries don’t reach a trade deal, the market largely ignored them. The context is much different than April when the tariffs led to very dovish expectations for the central banks. Now the market continues to expect deadlines to be postponed indefinitely and trade deals to be reached eventually.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

How have interest rates expectations changed after the first tariff letters?

Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 50 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 22 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoE: 51 bps (75% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 28 bps (76% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA: 60 bps (85% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 31 bps (57% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 10 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 12 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

We got some slightly more hawkish repricing for a couple central banks. The pricing for the Fed consolidated around 50 bps after the NF report which is the Fed’s baseline scenario of two rate cuts by year-end.

For the ECB there’s some hawkish repricing probably due to positive rumors around a US-EU trade deal. In fact, a trade deal would further decrease uncertainty and likely lead to increased economic activity, especially given the fiscal and monetary impulses. We might even see the market price out the last rate cut altogether with a trade deal.

There was also a hawkish repricing for the RBA after they surprisingly delayed the rate cut and sounded cautious about rushing on monetary easing.

Finally, despite the US tariff letters threatening much higher rates if countries don’t reach a trade deal, the market largely ignored them. The context is much different than April when the tariffs led to very dovish expectations for the central banks. Now the market continues to expect deadlines to be postponed indefinitely and trade deals to be reached eventually.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/JPY Hits 12-Month High

EUR/JPY Hits 12-Month High

As the chart indicates, the EUR/JPY pair has risen above ¥172 per euro — a level last seen in July 2024. Since early June, the exchange rate has increased by approximately 5.6%. This upward movement is driven by a combination of factors, including: → Divergence in central bank policy: The European Central Bank’s key interest […]

The post EUR/JPY Hits 12-Month High appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/JPY Hits 12-Month High

EUR/JPY Hits 12-Month High

As the chart indicates, the EUR/JPY pair has risen above ¥172 per euro — a level last seen in July 2024. Since early June, the exchange rate has increased by approximately 5.6%. This upward movement is driven by a combination of factors, including: → Divergence in central bank policy: The European Central Bank’s key interest […]

The post EUR/JPY Hits 12-Month High appeared first on Action Forex.