News

Canadian and US deputies continue to meeting in Washington and yesterday hinted that they were close to a deal. Canada has been angling for relief on steel and aluminum while dangling energy (Keystone XL was proposed again) and hoping to get some certainty on autos.

There are some interesting market moves today. Cleveland-Cliffs shares are up nearly 10% and the company has a notably-large steel mill in Canada. Aluminum giant, which produces 75% of its North American aluminum in Canada, is also up 3.5%.

There is clearly some anticipation (leak?) of a deal here. I wouldn’t think the announcement of a deal on just steel and aluminum would move the loonie much but it certainly wouldn’t hurt. In terms of Canadian equity markets, they’re higher today led by gold, silver and base metals producers, which are soaring.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Every weekday, the Investing Club releases the Homestretch; an actionable afternoon update just in time for the last hour of trading.

The euro caught a small bid after comments from France’s caretaker Prime Minister:

• As of this evening, I consider the mission finished
• There is a majority that’s against dissolution of parliament (and fresh elections)
• I told Macron that the prospect of dissolution is becoming more remote

It looks like they’re going to find a way forward. The euro is still down 47 pips on the day but it ticked higher on this.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The latest minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting suggest policymakers are leaning toward further rate cuts this year. While most officials backed the quarter-point reduction, the discussion reflected growing concern about labour market risks and a more balanced inflation outlook.

Gold price rally extends for the third consecutive trading session in the week, hitting a record high of $4,056 a troy ounce, up over 1.70% on the day.

• Some participants noted financial conditions suggested policy may not be “particularly restrictive”

• Those participants judged a cautious approach to future policy was warranted

• Most participants at the Fed’s September 16–17 meeting judged it would likely be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of 2025, minutes show

• Some participants noted financial conditions suggested policy may not be “particularly restrictive”

• Those participants judged a cautious approach to future policy was warranted

• Almost all participants supported quarter-percentage-point cut to Fed funds rate at September meeting

• Most participants judged downside risks to employment had increased, upside risks to inflation had either diminished or not increased

• Participants generally noted their judgments about appropriate policy action at September meeting reflected a shift in the balance of risks

• Almost all participants supported quarter-percentage-point cut to Fed funds rate at September meeting

• Most participants judged downside risks to employment had increased, upside risks to inflation had either diminished or not increased

• Participants generally noted their judgments about appropriate policy action at September meeting reflected a shift in balance of risks

• A few participants saw merit in keeping Fed funds rate unchanged at September meeting or that they could have supported such a decision

• A majority of participants emphasized upside risk to their outlooks for inflation

• A few participants noted the standing repo facility would help keep the Fed funds rate in target range and ensure money market pressures would not disrupt ongoing quantitative tightening

• One participant preferred a half-percentage-point rate cut at last month’s meeting

• Fed staff revised up GDP growth projection for 2025 through 2028

• A few participants saw merit in keeping Fed funds rate unchanged at September meeting or that they could have supported such a decision

• One participant preferred a half-percentage-point rate cut at last month’s meeting

• A majority of participants emphasized upside risk to their outlooks for inflation

• A few participants noted the standing repo facility would help keep the Fed funds rate in target range and would ensure money market pressures would not disrupt ongoing quantitative tightening

• Fed staff revised up GDP growth projection for 2025 through 2028 (we don’t get the actual forecasts)

• Upward revision reflected stronger-than-expected consumer spending and business investment, and slightly easier financial conditions

• Inflation forecast mostly unchanged, projected to reach 2% by 2027

• Last month saw job risks rising but remained wary about inflation

• Full text

The Fed minutes showed officials edging toward easier policy as most participants agreed it would likely be appropriate to cut rates further over the remainder of 2025. A few still saw merit in holding steady, but the tone clearly shifted toward easing. Downside risks to employment were noted to have increased, while inflation risks had diminished or stabilized. Some members flagged that financial conditions may no longer be “particularly restrictive,” which is an indication that they’ve noticed the rally in stock markets. The staff also revised up GDP growth projections through 2028, reinforcing confidence in the outlook even as policymakers lean toward more accommodation ahead.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Some participants noted financial conditions suggested policy may not be “particularly restrictive”

• Those participants judged a cautious approach to future policy was warranted

• Most participants at the Fed’s September 16–17 meeting judged it would likely be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of 2025, minutes show

• Some participants noted financial conditions suggested policy may not be “particularly restrictive”

• Those participants judged a cautious approach to future policy was warranted

• Almost all participants supported quarter-percentage-point cut to Fed funds rate at September meeting

• Most participants judged downside risks to employment had increased, upside risks to inflation had either diminished or not increased

• Participants generally noted their judgments about appropriate policy action at September meeting reflected a shift in the balance of risks

• Almost all participants supported quarter-percentage-point cut to Fed funds rate at September meeting

• Most participants judged downside risks to employment had increased, upside risks to inflation had either diminished or not increased

• Participants generally noted their judgments about appropriate policy action at September meeting reflected a shift in balance of risks

• A few participants saw merit in keeping Fed funds rate unchanged at September meeting or that they could have supported such a decision

• A majority of participants emphasized upside risk to their outlooks for inflation

• A few participants noted the standing repo facility would help keep the Fed funds rate in target range and ensure money market pressures would not disrupt ongoing quantitative tightening

• One participant preferred a half-percentage-point rate cut at last month’s meeting

• Fed staff revised up GDP growth projection for 2025 through 2028

• A few participants saw merit in keeping Fed funds rate unchanged at September meeting or that they could have supported such a decision

• One participant preferred a half-percentage-point rate cut at last month’s meeting

• A majority of participants emphasized upside risk to their outlooks for inflation

• A few participants noted the standing repo facility would help keep the Fed funds rate in target range and would ensure money market pressures would not disrupt ongoing quantitative tightening

• Fed staff revised up GDP growth projection for 2025 through 2028 (we don’t get the actual forecasts)

• Upward revision reflected stronger-than-expected consumer spending and business investment, and slightly easier financial conditions

• Inflation forecast mostly unchanged, projected to reach 2% by 2027

• Last month saw job risks rising but remained wary about inflation

• Full text

The Fed minutes showed officials edging toward easier policy as most participants agreed it would likely be appropriate to cut rates further over the remainder of 2025. A few still saw merit in holding steady, but the tone clearly shifted toward easing. Downside risks to employment were noted to have increased, while inflation risks had diminished or stabilized. Some members flagged that financial conditions may no longer be “particularly restrictive,” which is an indication that they’ve noticed the rally in stock markets. The staff also revised up GDP growth projections through 2028, reinforcing confidence in the outlook even as policymakers lean toward more accommodation ahead.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

This edition is a real risk. The market is 92% priced for a cut in December and 88% priced for a December cut. The later one looks particularly vulnerable to me as some Fed officials aren’t convinced that inflation is moving in the right direction.

Hawkish minutes could be a problem for the equity market.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.