News

The USDCHF is under pressure, falling to new session lows and testing the 200-hour moving average at 0.7948. The pair has also slipped below the 100-hour moving average at 0.79568, shifting the near-term bias more in favor of the sellers for now.

Traders now face a critical decision point. A break below the 200-hour MA and the nearby swing level at 0.7942 would open the door for further downside momentum. That could pave the way for a deeper retracement of the recent recovery.

Alternatively, bounce here and move back above the 100 hour moving average of 0.7956 they would take pressure off the downside and give the buyers more hope

Stay alert—buyers need to reclaim the MAs to regain control.

Key levels:

• 100-hour MA: 0.79568

• 200-hour MA: 0.7948

• Other Support: 0.7942

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

China vice premier He Lifeng says:

• China economy has demonstrated strong resilience and growth potential despite constantly changing external environment.
• Met with BASF chairman on Wednesday. Welcoming the company and similar enterprises to expand investment and cooperation within China.

BASF is a German country and China would like to build more relationships with companies outside of the US

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EU trade negotiator Sefcovic is testifying to EU parliament and says:

• Trade talks continue remotely every day with the US
• Our priority is a negotiated solution with the US
• We made good progress on text of agreement in principle.
• Hope to reach satisfactory results in coming days
• While we remain committed to reaching satisfactory deal, a degree of rebalancing will remain.
• Our regulatory framework remains nonnegotiable
• Our diversification agenda remains priority.
• Commission is working to protect EU from trade diversion from other countries.
• EU unity remains absolutely crucial.

Some between the lines thoughts:

• Committed to reaching a satisfactory deals but rebalancing will remain. In other words, there will be some concessions, but don’t expect a EU victory.
• The regulatory framework remains nonnegotiable. OK but will they be pressured to not sue every US corporation? Trump criticized the EU suing every US corporation.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

White House trade advisor Navarro is speaking on Fox news and says:

• The markets view trade letters as part of negotiations
• Apple thinks it is too big to tariff.
• Fed should have cut rates in July.

The strategy has shifted from the long tedious trade negotiations to a view that countries that export to the US, need to pay an entrance fee and also need to pay back from “unfair trade practices”. Ninety deals in 90-days idea did not work.

Regarding Apple, the administration will bash the home team and with tariffs likely to increase, I would expect more pressure on US corporations to foot the bill by reducing costs and not passing on higher costs from the tariffs to consumers. That comes at the expense of margins/profits and jobs as a result.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Sky News is reporting that Pres. Trump will be visiting the UK in the next few weeks. The scuttlebutt as to why focuses on:

• Invitation from King Charles III: Buckingham Palace confirmed that King Charles extended the official “Manu Regia” invitation — a formal gesture marking a full ceremonial state visit, including a carriage procession and state banquet

• Diplomatic efforts by PM Starmer: Prime Minister Keir Starmer personally delivered the invitation in February and accelerated the visit—reportedly pushing it forward to September—to reinforce the “Special Relationship” between the UK and the U.S. It will earlier.

• Scheduling logistics: A proposed informal meeting in Scotland over the summer had to be scrapped due to conflicting diaries. This led to formal planning for a full state visit instead

• Scotland golf tie-in: Trump is also expected to visit his Scottish golf courses—including Turnberry, Aberdeen, and the new MacLeod course—in the latter half of July, aligning with the broader state trip

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.