News

• High-yield 4.734%
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.73%
• Tail 0.4 basis points versus 6 month average -0.2 basis points.
• Bid to cover 2.38Xversus 6 month average 2.37X
• Directs 26.9% versus 6 month average 25.8%
• Indirects 65.5% versus 6 month average 61.2%
• Dealers 8.7% versus 6 month average of 13.0%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

United States 30-Year Bond Auction increased to 4.734% from previous 4.651%

The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens on Thursday, trading at 0.6550 against the US Dollar (USD), down 0.50% at the time of writing. The Aussie gives up its early gains as the Greenback recovers, supported by a rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which hovers near a two-month high around 99.50.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens on Thursday, trading at 0.6550 against the US Dollar (USD), down 0.50% at the time of writing. The Aussie gives up its early gains as the Greenback recovers, supported by a rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which hovers near a two-month high around 99.50.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michael Barr spoke about the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Minnesota in Golden Valley, and said that It’s hard to judge at this point whether federal government shutdown will leave an imprint on overall economy.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michael Barr spoke about the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Minnesota in Golden Valley, and said that It’s hard to judge at this point whether federal government shutdown will leave an imprint on overall economy.

GBP/USD tumbles during the North American session on Thursday as the US Dollar reaches a 9-week high, as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY), hitting 99.51 as hedge funds increase bets on USD gains towards the year-end.

GBP/USD tumbles during the North American session on Thursday as the US Dollar reaches a 9-week high, as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY), hitting 99.51 as hedge funds increase bets on USD gains towards the year-end.

Fed Gov. Barr is speaking (voting member) and says:

• Uncertainty about both inflation and jobs warrants a cautious approach to any further interest rate cut

• Possible that tariffs have only a modest impact on inflation, but there are also risks of persistent inflation and rising inflation expectations

• Fed’s inflation goal faces significant risks, but also some factors that might mitigate those risks

• Expects core personal consumption expenditures price index over 3% at end of this year

• Skeptical that the Fed can completely look through tariff-driven inflation

• Two more years would be a long time for consumers to wait for inflation to return to 2%

• Low payroll growth could be a sign of worse to come, but sound continued growth and resilience could also lead to stronger hiring

• Rate cut in September was appropriate, current policy rate still modestly restrictive

• Since Fed’s September meeting consumer spending has been strong, stronger PCE inflation has been confirmed, and new tariffs announced

• Modest impact of tariffs on inflation so far likely means period of adjustment will continue longer as firms adapt

• Hard to judge at this point whether federal government shutdown will leave an imprint on overall economy

• Current outlook poses challenges for judging stance of monetary policy and deciding the right path forward

• Recent spending data suggest GDP growth remained strong in the third quarter

• Fact that job market balance is coming through slowing supply and hiring suggests vulnerability to shocks

Barr comes across as more hawkish (less dovish) than dovish:

• He clearly prioritizes inflation risks, downplays the case for further immediate easing, and stresses caution.

• His tone is not aggressively hawkish (he doesn’t call for hikes), but his skepticism about cuts and insistence on watching inflation make him hawkish-leaning neutral.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury will complete their coupon auctions for the week with the sale of $22 billion and 30 year bonds at 1 PM ET. The auction results will be compared to the 6 month averages of the major components.

• The 3-year note auction on Tuesday was met with strong demand.
• The 10-year note auction yesterday was met with average demand.

What will the demand be for the longest treasury issue today?

Below are the 6 month averages of the major components:

• Tail -0.2 basis points.
• Bid to cover 2.37X
• Directs 25.8%
• Indirects 61.2%
• Dealers 13.0%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.