News

A leap of faith is required anytime an investment is based on predicting what the future will hold in five to 10 years.

• Some components of services inflation stem from high stock prices
• There is a lot of resilience in the US economy
• Mostly in labor market, AI will be complimentary
• There may be two economies right now, with upper income doing well and lower income struggling
• Long term neutral rate has gone up a little but, based on productivity from gen AI
• Separate question is how restrictive is the Fed’s rate right now
• Data does show AI may be having some labor market effect

Notably, the Fed’s Kashkari said “I basically agree with everything you said” after Barr’s speech.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Some components of services inflation stem from high stock prices
• There is a lot of resilience in the US economy
• Mostly in labor market, AI will be complimentary
• There may be two economies right now, with upper income doing well and lower income struggling
• Long term neutral rate has gone up a little but, based on productivity from gen AI
• Separate question is how restrictive is the Fed’s rate right now
• Data does show AI may be having some labor market effect

Notably, the Fed’s Kashkari said “I basically agree with everything you said” after Barr’s speech.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It’s been a long time coming but some real profit taking in gold finally arrived.

Gold tested $4000 again about an hour ago and this time it didn’t hold. That led to a heavy round of selling that saw it quickly fall to $3945.

I think it would be healthy to see gold scale back to around $3700 but the bulls have answered every challenge so far. This one — not coincidentally — is also coming alongside some selling in high-flying equities.

Even more importantly, the US dollar is strong today following upbeat comments on the strength of the consumer from Delta Airlines. A reacceleration — and re-heating — of the US dollar would be something of a gamechanger in the current state of play in many markets, though gold certainly has multiple factors supporting it.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

EUR/USD remains practically flat, right above one-month lows at 1.1600. The pair trades at 1.1615 at the time of writing, with upside attempts finding sellers, as France’s political uncertainty keeps investors on their toes.

• High-yield 4.734%
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.73%
• Tail 0.4 basis points versus 6 month average -0.2 basis points.
• Bid to cover 2.38Xversus 6 month average 2.37X
• Directs 26.9% versus 6 month average 25.8%
• Indirects 65.5% versus 6 month average 61.2%
• Dealers 8.7% versus 6 month average of 13.0%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

United States 30-Year Bond Auction increased to 4.734% from previous 4.651%

The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens on Thursday, trading at 0.6550 against the US Dollar (USD), down 0.50% at the time of writing. The Aussie gives up its early gains as the Greenback recovers, supported by a rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which hovers near a two-month high around 99.50.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens on Thursday, trading at 0.6550 against the US Dollar (USD), down 0.50% at the time of writing. The Aussie gives up its early gains as the Greenback recovers, supported by a rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which hovers near a two-month high around 99.50.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michael Barr spoke about the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Minnesota in Golden Valley, and said that It’s hard to judge at this point whether federal government shutdown will leave an imprint on overall economy.