News

The market is pricing in virtually no chance of a cut on July 24 but that rises to 42% for the September 11 meeting. and a cut is fully priced in by next March before the curve begins to turn in the other direction.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The market is pricing in virtually no chance of a cut on July 24 but that rises to 42% for the September 11 meeting. and a cut is fully priced in by next March before the curve begins to turn in the other direction.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

THe USD is higher vs all the major currencies but little changed vs each to kickstart the day on July 9. A look at the major currencies vs the dollar show the following modest changes and ranges from the highs to the lows:

• Euro: +0.17% | Range: 1.1729 – 1.1701 = 28 pips vs 1 month average of 82 pips

• Japanese Yen: +0.08% | Range: 147.18 – 146.54 = 64 pips vs 1 month average of 126 pips

• British Pound: +0.01% | Range: 1.3608 – 1.3565 = 43 pips vs 1 month average of 100 pips

• Swiss Franc: +0.06% | Range: 0.7979 – 0.7955 = 24 pips vs 1 month average of 60 pips

• Canadian Dollar: +0.26% | Range: 1.3698 – 1.3662 = 36 pips vs 1 month average of 75 pips

• Australian Dollar: +0.09% | Range: 0.6544 – 0.6510 = 34 pips vs 1 month average of 58 pips

• New Zealand Dollar: +0.13% | Range: 0.6014 – 0.5977 = 37 pips vs 1 month average of 57 pips

There is room to roam given the modest changes and/or we are in for a quiet mid summer day.

The economic calendar favors the quiet day with little in the way of news. The Wholesales inventory and sales data is the only economic release (at 10 AM) with expectation at -0.3% v +0.1% last month. The sales last month came in at 0.1%.

The weekly oil inventory data will be released at 10:30 AM ET. The property evidently yesterday showed a large build in crude inventories of 7.1 million. The estimate for today’s data is for a drawdown of -2.071 million. The price of crude oil is up around $0.11 or 0.18% at $68.45 to start the US session.

The tariff news has the potential to cause market anxiety or relief. The Pres. said yesterday that a letter will be going to the EU in “the next 2-days” and that is what is expected as the negotiations continue. It seems clear, the President wants to increase the treasury coffers and putting the burden on corporations or consumers to foot the bill. Expect to hear about how much money the treasury is collecting. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the U.S. has already collected around $100 billion in tariff revenue during 2025 and projects that figure could grow to “well over $300 billion” by the end of the calendar year.

In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 3.25% during its July 2025 meeting, in line with market expectations. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) signaled that while annual inflation is likely to edge toward the upper end of the 1–3% target band in mid-2025, it is expected to ease back to around 2% by early 2026 due to waning domestic inflation pressures and spare capacity in the economy. However, the economic outlook remains highly uncertain. Ongoing global trade tensions and newly implemented tariffs are anticipated to weigh on global growth, potentially slowing New Zealand’s economic recovery and dampening inflation pressures. The committee emphasized that the future path of interest rates will be guided by incoming data on inflation persistence, economic momentum, and the evolving impact of tariffs.

A summary of the meeting minutes commented that:

• The Committee expects to lower the OCR further, aligning with May’s projections.

• Two policy options were debated: a 25 basis point cut or holding at 3.25%; the latter was chosen due to heightened uncertainty.

• Some members favored an immediate cut to support economic activity amid global slowdown risks.

• The decision to hold was influenced by the desire to reassess in August with more data.

• Global growth is projected to weaken due to trade protectionism.

• Domestic financial conditions are evolving as expected.

• Tariffs introduce uncertainty, potentially pushing medium-term inflation above or below the central forecast.

Looking at other markets:

• Gold is trading down $15.85 after falling $-37.21 yesterday. The price is back down to June 30 levels. The low price for June reached $3246.55
• Silver is trading down $0.21 at $36.50
• Bitcoin is trading up $155 at $109,102. The price is trading near the high of the day $109,147

Looking at the US debt market, yields are modestly lower, but little changed. The U.S. Treasury will auction off 10 year notes at 1 PM. The three-year note auction yesterday was distributed with below average demand compared to the six month components:

• 2-year yield 3.899%, -1.0 basis points
• 5-year yield 3.981%, -0.6 basis points
• 10-year yield 4.413%, -0.4 basis points
• 30-year yield 4.939%, -0.6 basis points

In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are trading higher:

• Dow industrial average up 128 points
• S&P index up 14.28 points
• NASDAQ index up 46.5 points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.