News

Etsy shares jumped in premarket trading on Wednesday after the company posted better-than-expected revenue for the first quarter.

• Prior +2.3%
• HICP m/m +0.5% vs +0.4% expected
• Prior +0.4%
• Core CPI Y/Y 2.9% vs 2.6% prior

A touch above expectations but nothing that will change the ECB’s plan of cutting rates in June. The Core reading saw a notable jump though. We will see how things evolve in the next months but the trade negotiations remain the market’s focus.

On a forward looking basis, if we get a resolution on the trade war front, we could see a strong and sudden pickup in demand which would push economic activity and prices up. That’s something to watch out for as it could trigger a more hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The most anticipated part of Apple’s Thursday earnings will be CEO Tim Cook’s comments on how the company is dealing with President Donald Trump’s tariffs. 

When an extraordinary event occurs, the first thing on
investors’ minds is how it will affect the markets and, more importantly, how
to avoid losses and profit from the situation. The widespread blackout that
Spain and Portugal witnessed across the countries on Monday is one such event.

The exact cause of the power grid collapse remains unclear.
Some suggest it was due to a “rare atmospheric phenomenon” over Spain. Others
speculate that it was the result of a cyber-attack. And some believe it was
neither. The actual cause will likely be revealed through a formal
investigation.

In the meantime, economists are trying to calculate the
potential damage caused by the hours-long blackouts that disrupted both power
supply and Internet access. According to The Objective, losses from the
blackout in Spain have already exceeded €1 billion. While painful, it is not
catastrophic.

More importantly, a temporary disruption of one country’s
economy—even for several hours—is unlikely to trigger a crisis in the entire
European Union. However, other factors could pose a greater threat to EU GDP.
One such factor could be the tariff
war initiated by Donald Trump in April.

The first warning signs are already appearing: preliminary
PMI indices for April, published last week, indicated a worsening of business
conditions in Germany and France. Adding to the concern, the Eurozone’s overall
business confidence index fell in April to 93.6 from 95.0 (forecasts had
expected a milder decline to 94.5).

Industrial confidence also continued to fall, standing at
-11.2 versus -10.7 the previous month (forecasts were for -10.1). The services
sector also saw a sharper contraction to 1.4 from 2.2 (and 5.0 earlier),
despite forecasts for a rebound. To make matters worse, a stronger euro could
put additional pressure on the economy.

A higher
EUR/USD would make European products more expensive on world
markets and could reduce export sales. Large European companies that earn
revenues in dollars would see their revenues eroded by converting to euros.
Finally, a stronger currency also makes Europe more expensive for foreign
tourists.

And now for the bad news: Deutsche Bank predicts that the
EUR/USD exchange rate could reach 1.30 by the end of the decade. Still, the IMF
remains cautiously optimistic. Although it recently downgraded its forecast for
eurozone growth this year from 1% to 0.8%, it still expects growth to pick up
to 1.2% by 2026.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Yum Brands, the parent of KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell, said sales rose 12% in the first quarter.

“The modern financial system is broken, it’s slow, it’s expensive,” the executive vice president of the Trump Organization told CNBC.

📊 OrderFlow Intel Analysis & Prediction Update on Gold Futures

🔍 1. Key Recent Price Action & Levels:

• 3280.9 (April 28th VAL): Price showed clear signs of buyer absorption at this crucial support area, marking a potential reversal point.

• 3295.2 (Current VAL): Now acts as an immediate resistance. Price approaching this level from below signals a possible bullish scenario if crossed.

• 3308 (Today’s Session VWAP): A significant overhead level acting as stronger resistance if the bullish move continues.

⚖️ 2. Understanding the Score Change (+2 → +6):

The initial prediction score was +2, indicating indecision or mild bullishness because the selling pressure had not yet been convincingly overcome. At the time, the price action and stats showed limited bullish activity, keeping traders cautious.

However, the updated order flow data and recent price movements have now revealed:

• A clear increase in buyer strength at the key support around 3280.9, illustrated by a shift from negative to positive buying pressure.

• Volumes have increased notably in the bullish direction after initially being dominated by sellers, suggesting a stronger bullish reaction and buyer-driven momentum.

• The cumulative data shows selling momentum losing steam (reflected by minimal cumulative delta change), indicating exhaustion among sellers.

Due to these reasons, confidence in the bullish scenario improved, thus raising the prediction score from a neutral/mild bullish (+2) to a moderate bullish (+6).

🚩 3. Current Prediction Score Explanation: +6 (Moderate Bullish)

• The bullishness is currently moderate rather than strong (+8 or +10) because the immediate overhead resistance levels at 3295.2 (VAL) and 3308 (Session VWAP) remain significant hurdles.

• For a stronger bullish outlook, price must sustainably cross above these critical resistance levels.

🎯 Scoring System Reference:

• -10: Extremely Bearish (Strong selling momentum)

• -8 to -4: Moderate Bearish (Clear bearish pressure, limited bullish reaction)

• -2 to 0: Neutral/Indecisive (No clear dominant force)

• +2 to +4: Mild Bullish (Early signs of bullish pressure, limited conviction)

• +6 to +8: Moderate Bullish (Clear bullish momentum, overcoming key levels)

• +10: Extremely Bullish (Strong, sustained buying momentum)

🚨 Actionable Trader Note:

Traders currently short should consider taking partial profits around the key support level at 3280.9, given the clear bullish absorption. Bulls should carefully monitor the next price reaction at 3295.2 for further confirmation.

Trade carefully, respecting the key levels above.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 25 April -4.2% vs -12.7% prior
• Reminder: Trump will speak at an “Investing in America” event at 16:00 ET/20:00 GMT
• Italy April preliminary CPI (HICP) +2.1% vs +2.3% y/y expected
• Eurozone Q1 preliminary GDP +0.4% vs +0.2% q/q expected
• China’s Xi: China needs to adapt to changing situations
• Switzerland UBS April investor sentiment -51.6 vs -10.7 prior
• Italy Q1 preliminary GDP +0.3% vs +0.2% q/q expected
• Germany Q1 preliminary GDP +0.2% vs +0.2% q/q expected
• Bavaria April CPI +2.1% vs +2.3% y/y prior
• Germany April unemployment change 4k vs 15k expected
• Bessent told French Fin Minister the idea of zero reciprocal tariffs wasn’t unrealistic
• Switzerland April KOF leading indicator index 97.1 vs 101.5 expected
• France April preliminary CPI (HICP) +0.8% vs +0.7% y/y expected
• What are the main events for today?
• Heads up: Chinese markets closure until next week
• Germany March import price index -1.0% vs -0.8% m/m expected
• Germany March retail sales -0.2% vs -0.4% m/m expected
• UK April Nationwide house prices -0.6% vs 0.0% m/m expected
• France Q1 preliminary GDP +0.1% vs +0.1% q/q expected
• FX option expiries for 30 April 10am New York cut

We had lots of data releases this morning but as it’s been the case since April 2, the market mostly ignored the data given the focus on trade negotiations.

The Eurozone preliminary Q1 GDP beat expectations but economists already foresaw an improvement due to tariff-driven frontloading
after companies and consumers in the US stockpiled European goods before
the tariffs started.

Inflation data out of France, Italy and Germany continues to be in check despite ticking a bit higher. The data is not going to change the ECB plan of cutting rates again in June though barring a resolution on the tariffs front.

We got one notable headline early in the morning where French Finance Minister Lombard said that he discussed the idea of reciprocal
zero tariffs with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Bessent told him that it was not
unrealistic.

The Swiss sentiment surveys fell by much more than expected, which is not a surprise given the tariffs uncertainty. All around the world we are seeing the same trend in soft data.

In the American session, we will get the Advance US Q1 GDP report where the range of expectations is very wide. The good news is that the markets won’t care given that the GDP report is always old news. The markets look forward and that’s why the focus is on trade negotiations.

We will also get the Canadian GDP, the US ADP, the US Employment Cost Index and the US PCE Price Index. Yep, you guessed it, it’s old news. The main event is Trump’s speech at the “Investing in America” event due at 16:00 ET/20:00 GMT. Nonetheless, watch out for trade related headlines as we continue to wait for the details of the first deal.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.