News

The tariff letters have been released for the following additional countries:

• 30% for Libya
• 30% for Iraq
• 30% for Algeria
• 5% for Moldova. We have near 0% trade with this country.
• 25% for Brunei
• 20% for Philippines. Goods transshipment to evade higher tariff will be subject to higher tariffs.

Of the total trade, the countries today account for the following % of total trade:

• Philippines: 0.42%

• Algeria: 0.08%

• Libya: 0.04%

• Iraq: 0.01%

• Brunei: 0.002%

• Moldova: 0.001

The total trade with the Phillippines is $22.6B. The tariffs that will be collected would be $4.52B.

Prior to today:

• 14 Countries Notified, including major allies:

  • Japan & South Korea: 25% tariffs on all imports

  • Other countries and rates:

    • Myanmar & Laos: 40%

    • Cambodia & Thailand: 36% (unchanged from last round)

    • South Africa, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Tunisia, Serbia, Cambodia, Bosnia & Herzegovina: between 25% and 40%

• Upcoming Sector-Specific Tariffs flagged in the letters and other signals:

  • Copper: 50% tariff announced

  • Semiconductors & Pharmaceuticals: additional tariffs under review/directed

Below is “the letter”. Of note, is

• The invitation to participate in the “Number One Market in the World”. Implying you have to pay to play.
• The adjustment is for a more balanced and fair Trade.
• The deficits are a “major threat to our Economy and indeed our National Security!”

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Major European indices are up solidly with gains of 1% or more for all the major indices except the UK. The gains are led by France’s CAC, and Italy’s FTSE MIB (four week high). Both rose over 1.4%. The German DAX reached new all-time highs supported by defense stocks.

Traders were encouraged by a trade deal with the US. The European Commission has reaffirmed its commitment to securing a foundational agreement with the United States on the ongoing trade dispute, aiming to finalize a deal by the end of this week.

A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• German DAX +1.30%
• France’s CAC +1.44%
• UK’s FTSE 100 +0.14%
• Spain’s Ibex +1.24%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.59%

As London/European traders look to exit for the day, US stocks are also advancing but at a lower pace:

• Dow industrial average +0.11%
• S&P index up 0.28%
• NASDAQ index up 0.58%
• Russell 2000 up 0.24

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model for 2Q growth comes in at 2.6% unchanged from the previous estimate.

In their own words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.6 percent on July 9, unchanged from July 3 after rounding. After this morning’s wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential fixed investment growth decreased from -6.4 percent to -6.5 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to annualized second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -2.13 percentage points to -2.15 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, July 17. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• How have interest rates expectations changed after the first tariff letters?
• EU reportedly closes in on temporary “framework” agreement with the US
• EU will be firm, working closely with US to reach an agreement – von der Leyen
• EU commission says aims to reach a trade deal with US before August 1
• German Chancellor Merz: Cautiously optimistic on EU trade deal with the US
• China calls out EU to readjust its attitude on trade relations
• ECB’s de Guindos: Let’s hope the exchange rate stabilizes
• ECB’s Lane: Data dependence also extends to incoming data outside the monetary domain
• BoE’s Bailey: Steepening in yield curves for bonds is not particularly UK-focused
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 4 July +9.4% vs +2.7% prior

Markets:

• USD leads, CAD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%
• US 10-year yields down 0.4 bps to 4.413%
• Gold down 0.5% to $3,284.91
• WTI crude up 0.2% to $68.47
• Bitcoin up 0.4% to $109,127

It was a quiet session in European trading as markets continue to wait on more trade developments and tariff news. That said, European stocks are cheering on the likelihood of a makeshift deal between the EU and US some time later this week. It will be one similar to that of the UK, though with just slightly worse terms.

The whole point is to extend trade negotiations further, likely beyond 1 August, with the baseline tariffs fixed at 10%. Trump is reported to want added 17% tariffs on EU agrifood, so we’ll have to see what the final details will be.

The DAX is up over 1% on the day, briefly clipping fresh record highs, as European indices climb higher. The CAC 40 is also up over 1% and the gains are also matched by Spanish and Italian stocks too. This comes amid a calmer mood seen in US futures as well, with S&P 500 futures now up 0.2% on the day.

In FX, things were rather dead but the dollar is keeping steadier across the board. For the most part, we saw narrow ranges but the greenback is starting to pick up some light bids ahead of US trading.

EUR/USD is now dipping just below 1.1700, where large option expiries had held the floor for the most part during the session. USD/JPY had also climbed above 147.00 earlier in the day but is now up just 0.1% to 146.75.

Besides that, USD/CAD is up 0.3% to just above 1.3700 with AUD/USD down 0.2% to 0.6517 currently.

In other markets, copper continues to hold at fresh record highs after the spike yesterday following Trump’s tariffs announcement. Front-month futures are still up around 10% this week to $5.48 currently but well off the peak of around $5.80 from overnight trading.

Elsewhere, gold is down and poised for a third weekly drop in four weeks with traders still digesting tariff developments for the most part. In the bigger picture though, price is very much ranging in and around the $3,300 mark since the end of May.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.