News

Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin (BTC) will reach a fresh all-time high around USD 120,000 in Q2 2025, driven by strategic shifts in global capital flows away from US assets. The rally is expected to extend through the year, with a target of USD 200,000 by year-end.

Key Points:

• Capital Reallocation: Institutional investors are reallocating away from US equities and bonds, increasingly viewing BTC as an alternative reserve asset.

• Macro Indicators: A rising term premium, reflecting growing concerns over US fiscal sustainability and inflation, is strengthening BTC’s macro case.

• Accumulation Trends: Large BTC holders (‘whales’) continue to accumulate, a bullish signal for price action.

• ETF Flows: Funds have been rotating out of gold ETFs into Bitcoin ETFs, reinforcing the narrative of BTC as “digital gold”.

• Time-of-Day Analysis: BTC price trends show sustained upside during US trading hours, suggesting that flows are primarily US-driven.

Conclusion:

Standard Chartered sees Bitcoin as a prime beneficiary of global de-dollarization and capital rotation themes, especially amid eroding confidence in US assets. With momentum accelerating, BTC is forecast to hit $120K in Q2 and $200K by year-end, assuming macro and flow trends continue.

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Gross domestic product was expected to rise at a 0.4% annualized pace in the first quarter, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

• Says Carney will come to the White House within the next week

That’s tentatively a good sign. USD/CAD is at the lows of the day, down 35 pips to 1.3798.

Donald Trump says Mark Carney will visit the White House “within the next week, or less.” He says Carney told him “let’s make a deal” during their phone call yesterday. “He couldn’t have been nicer. He’s a very nice gentleman.”

Trump dismissed Carney’s “betrayal” line as electioneering. “I think we’re going to have a great relationship,” he says. “He was running for office. They both hated Trump — and it was the one that hated Trump the least, I think, that won.”

It’s bizarre that we live in a world where this is market moving stuff.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Those favoring no change wanted to gain more info on US tariffs, backed a wait-and-see approach
• Members favoring a cut cited muted near-term inflation risks and signs of economic weakness
• Those favoring a cut highlighted need for timely action, given lags
• Everyone agreed there was a great deal of uncertainty and the situation could change quickly
• Agreed they should be less forward-looking than usual
• Agreed to maintain a robust survey and outreach plan to better understand in real time how the economy was adapting
• Agreed it was difficult to predict opposing pressure on prices beyond April

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

When Satya Nadella became Microsoft’s third-ever CEO in 2014, his predecessor Steve Ballmer gave him some helpful advice.

It’s a choppy day in the foreign exchange market, which isn’t unusual at month-end, particularly in a very volatile month.

The US dollar had been slackening in the last hour broadly but there is some life in stocks now and the dollar has rebounded. At the same time, the euro is particularly soft.

It’s tough to tie this back to newsflow as it as generally dovish today, which should hurt the US dollar. The market is taking a recessionary view with 132 bps in easing in the year ahead now priced in, compared to 125 bps yesterday.

At the same time, the market is trying to suss out what is coming in the trade war and there is no sign of a breakthough with China. That could happen fast but there is a line of thinking that it won’t happen unless stock markets go back to the lows. Today, Trump was telling Americans to ‘be patient’ which isn’t exactly comforting.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The comments from the Visa conference call regarding the consumer and the global macroeconomy were really something. They highlight that consumers are employed and that, as long as they remain that way, they’re going to keep on spending.

Some direct quotes from executives on the call:

• “In Q2 and through April 21, we have not seen any signs of overall consumer spending weakening.”
• “While spending growth differs among consumer spend bands, with the most affluent growing the fastest, all spend bands remain resilient and consistent with past quarters.”
• “Both discretionary and nondiscretionary spend remains strong.”
• Consumer spending shows resilience “in an uncertain and dynamic environment.”

Internationally:

• “Outside the U.S., we see similar stable trends.”
• “Within cross-border, volume growth was in line with Q4 2024 levels.”
• “We have seen some impacts from currency weakness and travel to specific countries, but the overall growth was above the pre-COVID trend.”

Travel and US-Canada travel was down

• “Within spend categories, there are some select areas such as in travel with airlines and lodging where growth has decelerated.”
• “We saw travel and entertainment growth decelerate, restaurant growth remained stable and retail and fuel growth improved.”
• “We did see a meaningful slowdown in the Canada to U.S. border.”

Uncertainty, yes but impacts unclear

• “There’s obviously more uncertainty today among consumers and businesses than there was several months ago. You see that in the consumer confidence metrics.”
• When asked about de minimis exemption tariffs related to China: “So far, we’re not seeing a material impact from tariffs related to China.”

There is an incredible divergence between consumer confidence and spending at the moment and that helps to explain why stock markets have rallied despite the trade war. That said, US equities were incredibly resilient just weeks before the March 2020 covid shutdowns even as the cases were spreading abroad.

The other take here could be that Americans spent money ahead of tariffs and Visa misinterpreted that as a sign of consumer strength.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

ECBs Makhlouf is speaking and says:

• Price risks less clear in he medium term than the near.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. Stock market indices fell on news of the decline in gross domestic product over the first full two months of President Trump’s second White House term.

Amazon’s financials will land days after President Trump complained about a report that the company was considering displaying tariff costs on listings.