News

US & Ukraine have signed the closely watched minerals deal – Bloomberg cite a person familiar with the matter.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Epic notched its largest ever net gain in hospital market share for electronic health records, a report on Wednesday said.

• US Q1 advance GDP -0.3% vs +0.3% expected
• ADP April US employment +62K vs +115K expected
• US March PCE core +2.6% y/y vs +2.6% expected
• Canada GDP for February -0.2% versus 0.0% estimate
• EIA weekly crude oil inventories -2696K vs +429K expected
• Trump: Carney called yesterday and said ‘let’s make a deal’
• Meta EPS $6.43 versus $5.21 estimate. Revenues $42.31B versus $41.36B estimate
• Microsoft earnings beat expectations
• BOC Minutes: Governing council was split over whether to cut or hold rates
• ECB’s Makhlouf; Price risks less clear in he medium term.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 is 2.4%
• USTR Jamieson: We are ‘some weeks out’ on trade deals
• Saudi officials have told allies they can sustain a prolonged period of low prices
• US-Ukraine minerals deal hits a last-minute hurdle
• US pending home sales for March 6.1% vs 1.0% estimate
• Trump blames Biden, says to be patient

Markets:

• Gold down $28 to $3287
• US 10-year yields down 1.2 bps to 4.16%
• WTI crude oil down $2..26 to $58.17 — lowest close since 2021
• S&P 500 up 0.1%

The rates market shifted dovishly after weaker GDP and ADP but the dollar rose anyway.

It was a busy news day and the US dollar was strong against European currencies but sagged during the day against the commodity currencies. Equities also made a huge comeback from -2% to flat. That’s the kind of move you would expect on positive trade news but there wasn’t much, aside from a Chinese report saying that US officials had called to talk, and most of the moves came before that report.

Month end is an obvious culprit and a convincing one. Some might point to higher inflation in the GDP report as a catalyst but the PCE data showed a decelerating trend in the quarter with core PCE at +0.337%
in January, +0.498% in February, and +0.028% in March. In addition, oil prices just wrapped up a catastrophic month, which is deflationary pressure. Still, lower inflation is hardly a USD catalyst, unless your main worry is that the Fed is so far behind the curve that a brutal recession looms.

The loonie got a lift from Trump’s positive comments about Carney and the planned visit with the newly-elected Canadian PM.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Amazon announced it will spend $4 billion by the end of 2026 on expanding deliveries to small towns in rural America.

Meta shares more than 5% after the company reported stronger-than-expected revenue in the first quarter.

Bloomberg with the news snippet

• EU to present new trade proposals to US negotiators next week

Bloomberg is gated, but the gist of it is that the European Union is set to unveil fresh trade proposals to U.S. negotiators next week. Although the specifics are still undisclosed, the renewed talks come at a time of heightened global trade tensions, with both sides aiming to resolve disputes over tariffs and regulatory issues. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson recently noted that any final deal is still “some weeks away,” pointing to continued negotiations ahead.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The company’s Azure cloud growth exceeded Wall Street consensus.

The WSJ reports comments from Senator Lindsay Graham:

• Says he has 60 co-sponsors of bill to put secondary sanctions on Russian oil
• Predicts that number will rise to at least 67
• “It’s clear to me—and I think it’s becoming clear to President Trump—that the Russians are playing games,”
• The bill would put 500% sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, gas, uranium or other products
• Thune has made no promises to bring the bill to a vote

At 67 it would be veto-proof, meaning that Trump couldn’t stop it.

That said, this looks like posturing and leverage in an attempt to get Russia to negotiate peace. If this were to happen, it would materially change the balance of the global oil market and spike prices.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It was a wild month for stock as they were battered in the first week of the month after ‘Liberation Day’ and fell to the lows on April 7. From there it was a choppy path back, culminating in a seven-day rally.

How much optimism about a trade deal is built in? We will have to wait and see.

On the month:

• S&P 500 -0.8%
• Nasdaq +0.8%
• DJIA -3.2%
• Russell 2000 -2.4%

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Meta announced better-than-expected earnings and revenues:

• EPS $6.43 versus $5.21 estimate.
• Revenues $42.31B versus $41.36B estimate
• Advertising revenue $41.39 billion versus $40.55 billion
• Guide 2Q revenues $42.5 billion – $45.5 billion versus $44.41 billion estimate
• Lower FY total expenses forecast to $113 billion – $118 billion from $114 billion – $119 billion.

Shares of Meta are trading up $27 or 4.99% at $577.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.