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It’s a light calendar ahead for Asia, except for the Bank of Japan minutes. The caveat is, of course, that the minutes are those from the October 2025 meeting, which was a place holder at best.

The other notable event is that its not Christmas Day.

Summary

• BOJ October minutes are due but pre-date December’s rate hike

• October meeting offered little new guidance at the time

• December hike marked a clearer step toward policy normalisation

• Yen initially weakened post-hike, then rebounded on official rhetoric

• Markets remain focused on follow-through, not backward-looking minutes

Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s October policy meeting are due for release today, but are unlikely to provide meaningful direction for markets, given they pre-date December’s much more consequential rate hike and the subsequent swings in the yen.

The October meeting was widely seen as a holding operation. Policymakers maintained an incremental approach to normalisation, reiterating the need to assess whether wage growth and inflation momentum would prove durable. Discussion at that stage centred on risks around household consumption, global growth uncertainty and the sustainability of domestically driven inflation — themes that were already well understood by markets at the time.

Since then, however, the policy backdrop has shifted materially. At its December meeting, the Bank of Japan delivered a rate hike, reinforcing its gradual exit from ultra-easy monetary policy and signalling growing confidence in the inflation outlook. While the move itself was largely anticipated, it marked another clear step away from the extraordinary accommodation that defined Japan’s policy stance for decades.

• More detail on Bank of Japan decision to raise rates by 25bp to the highest in 30 years
• BOJ governor Ueda says rate hikes will continue if economy develops as per projections
• BOJ governor Ueda says the possibility of further rate hikes will be data-dependent

The yen’s reaction following that decision has been telling. Rather than strengthening, the currency initially weakened as investors questioned how far and how fast policy normalisation would ultimately proceed. That weakness, however, proved short-lived.

Subsequent comments from Japan’s top currency officials helped to shift the tone. Remarks from Atsushi Mimura warning about excessive and one-sided currency moves prompted a reassessment of short-yen positions, reinforcing the sense that authorities are increasingly sensitive to renewed volatility. This message was later echoed by Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, adding further weight to the view that sharp or disorderly moves would not be ignored.

• Japan officials’ warnings have continued to bolster the yen, USD/JPY under 156.50

Against that backdrop, today’s October minutes are likely to be treated as backward-looking context rather than a source of fresh signal. Any market reaction is expected to be limited and short-lived.

For now, the yen’s near-term direction appears more closely tied to expectations around further policy follow-through, wage dynamics and the consistency of official communication, rather than to historical deliberations from before the December shift.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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