Follow the latest analyses and key economic, financial, and global market news in this section. Our team reviews the most important market events daily and provides comprehensive insights for traders and enthusiasts.
Gold prices have started the week on the back foot as hopes grow over a barrage of trade deal announcements are expected this week. The initial July 9 deadline by the Trump administration approaches but there has been mixed messaging which may limit Gold’s downside potential ahead of the announcements Federal Reserve Minutes and US […]
The post Gold (XAU/USD) Slips 1% and Flirts with $3300/oz Support appeared first on Action Forex.
Eurozone’s Sentix Investor Confidence Index rose from 0.2 to 4.5 in July, its highest since February 2022. The improvement was broad-based: Current Situation Index climbed from -13.0 to -7.3, and Expectations strengthened from 14.3 to 17.0. This marks the third consecutive gain across all components—fulfilling what Sentix calls the “triple rule” for identifying an economic […]
The post Eurozone Sentix rises to 4.5, recovery gaining momentum, ECB may pause cuts appeared first on Action Forex.
Most major Asia Pacific equity indices started the week on a weaker note, as investors turned cautious ahead of the expiration of the White House’s 90-day pause on higher global reciprocal tariffs (excluding China), scheduled for Wednesday, 9 July. Asia Pacific equities (except Singapore) weaken as tariff uncertainty looms Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.6% to […]
The post Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Asia Equities; Gold, Oil Slip as US Dollar Rebounds appeared first on Action Forex.
Reuters reports — citing an EU source — that Trump didn’t send a letter today to the bloc. That’s no big surprise as the sides appear to be in intensive discussions around a trade deal.
The thing is, I just can’t imagine any path to a smooth agreement on an EU-US deal. That’s just not the way Trump operates. The thrives on drama, threats and brinksmanship.
Given the highly complex structure of the EU, it’s a doubly difficult deal to negotiate and the EU is one of the few places that has some decent leverage against the US.
I love this chart from BCA highlighting Trump’s negotiating strategy. At best, we’re in Stage 4 with the EU right now but it’s possible we’re only in Stage 2/3.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
It looks like we’re doing Liberation Day again.
Japan and South Korea — two of the United States’ strongest allies — were hit with 25% universal tariffs. Those are the first two of up to 12 letters expected to be sent today to US trading partners.
The market reaction has been to sell US stocks, buy the US dollar and buy gold. The latter is one of the more interesting ones as it was one of the best Liberation Day trades in the first episode.
In the April 2 announcement it initially fell $170 as risk assets were routed but then quickly turned around to gain more than $500 and hit a record high of $3498/oz just before the TACO Trade hit.
The key in this Trump letter is that the tariffs don’t start until August 1, which is beyond the Japanese lower House elections, something that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could be a trigger for negotiations. Some in Congress also said months ago that they wanted trade negotiations wrapped up by Labor Day.
So all of this is likely just posturing and that’s why the market reaction so far has been measured rather than some of the panicky stuff we saw in April. At the same time, Trump doesn’t appear to be angling to get tariffs back to 0% in a ‘reciprocal’ deal. Rather he wants the US to charge everyone at least 10% while others will charge US exporters 0% for market access. That’s a big ask.
In the longer term, the US is damaging its trading and political relationships and that’s a catalyst for de-dollarization and parking sovereign reserves in gold instead.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
