News

• Prior 48.1

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

“I was disappointed to see the massive spending bill,” Elon Musk said on CBS’s “Sunday Morning.”

The Trump administration warned that Social Security benefits could be garnished for defaulted student loans as early as June. What to know.

• Eurostoxx -0.3%
• Germany DAX -0.3%
• France CAC 40 -0.4%
• UK FTSE flat
• Spain IBEX +0.1%
• Italy FTSE MIB -0.1%

There will definitely be challenges in the weeks ahead, not least with trade negotiations between the US and EU. For today though, some tensions between US and China are adding to the stuttering start to the new week/month. S&P 500 futures are also seen down, lower by 0.4% currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) above forecasts (0.4%) in 1Q: Actual (0.5%)

The EUR/JPY cross tumbles to around 163.15 during the early European session on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) as persistent trade-related uncertainties and geopolitical risks further boost the safe-haven flows.

• Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.3%

It’s all positive for the Swiss economy in Q1 with the services sector posting growth. But there was a big boost in exports as firms appeared to be sending out products to the US in the rush to beat Trump’s tariffs. So, there’s that too.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The USD remains on the
backfoot as the support from the more hawkish repricing in interest rates
expectations got exhausted. The market is now in line with the Fed’s baseline
projection of two cuts in 2025 and we will likely need strong US data to price
out the remaining rate cuts and give the greenback a boost.

The recent weakness in the
US Dollar got triggered by the weaker than expected US jobless claims figures
on Thursday although that might have been an overreaction considering that the
data was still below the cycle high at 260K and continuing claims could get positively
revised this week.

On the JPY side, the
currency weakened across the board recently after we got the news that Japan
was considering trimming the issuance of super-long bonds. That was enough to
calm the markets in the short term and weigh on the yen.

On the monetary policy
side, the market is still unsure on another rate hike given that it’s pricing
just 18 bps of tightening by year-end. Nonetheless, that’s been creeping up in
the last few weeks supported also by higher than expected Japanese inflation
data. The US-Japan trade deal and the evolution of inflation will be key for
the BoJ.

USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY rejected the 146.00 handle and it’s now on its way towards the
142.35 support zone. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to step
in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the
148.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 140.00 handle next.

USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the US Dollar selloff helped by
the weaker than expected US jobless claims data on Thursday. There’s not much
else we can glean from this timeframe so we need to zoom in to see some more
details.

USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearish
momentum. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep
pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to start
targeting the 148.00 handle next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today, we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we
get the US Job Openings data. On Wednesday, we have the US ADP and the US ISM
Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the Japanese wage data and the latest US Jobless
Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.

Watch the video below

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Markets ‘Trade noise’ is moving again to the fore, further complicating any eco-driven market reaction function. Soft US data (US Q1 GDP was upwardly revised to -0.2% Q/Qa, but with a setback in private consumption and a soft core PCE deflator; claims were also higher than expected) triggered a setback in US yields on Thursday. […]

The post Trade-Related Uncertainty Continues Dominating Market Talk This Morning appeared first on Action Forex.