News

Optimism in the global business travel sector dropped by more than half this year, according to a report published by Global Business Travel Association.

The comments follow a ruling from judges on the Court of International Trade who said Trump exceeded his authority on tariffs.

Two headwinds that will make things look worse going forward.

A year ago tame PCE MoM data will fall off from the YoY calculation, putting upside pressure on the YoY levels.

• May 2024, 0.0%
• June 2024, 0.1%
• July 2024, 0.2%
• August 2024, 0.1%
• September 2024, 0.2%
• October 2024, 0.2%

3- month average: 0.1% 6-month average: 0.13%

For the core MoM over the next 6-months

• May 2024, 0.1%
• June 2024, 0.2%
• July 2024, 0.2%
• August 2024, 0.1%
• September 2024, 0.3%
• October 2024, 0.3%

3-month average of core PCE: 1.67%6-month average of core PCE: 0.2%

MoM gains of 0.2% or more for headline and core data will mathematically move the YoY up for the headline and the core measures.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +2.0%
• CPI (HICP) M/M +0.1% vs +0.0% expected
• Prior +0.4%

The data is in line with expectations and won’t change the ECB plans for the time being.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Reduced room to cut rates further, but macro outlook remains weak and trade tensions could worsen it.
• Future rate decisions need to be assessed on case by case basis, weighing data, inflation and growth outlook.
• Essential to maintain pragmatic and flexible approach, closely monitor liquidity conditions.
• Disinflation has not taken too high a toll on the Eurozone economy and is now close to completion.
• Outcome of trade negotiations uncertain but impact on European economy bound to be significant.
• Sectors most exposed to tariffs already showing signs of falling confidence, weaker expectations on orders and employment.

He’s a dove but he’s sounding more neutral here. The ECB is getting close to its estimated neutral rate, so they are now getting even more data-dependent for further rate reductions.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 97.1

This is an indicator that measures business confidence. We’ve seen a notable dip in April as expected due to Trump’s April 2 tariffs but it’s now bouncing as things continue to de-escalate.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +2.2%
• CPI (HICP) M/M -0.1% vs +0.0% expected
• Prior +0.6%
• Core CPI Y/Y +2.1% vs +2.4% prior

Slight miss. This development is mainly due to the decrease in leisure and culture prices, compared with the rise in May 2024. Also influential, although to a lesser extent, was the fall in transport, which was greater than in May of last year, and the fact that the rise in electricity was lower than in the same month of the previous year.

There’s nothing here that will change the ECB plans.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -0.2% (revised to 0.9%)
• Retail sales Y/Y 2.3% vs 1.8% expected
• Prior 2.2% (revised to 3.3%)

German retail sales fell in May but we had some big positive revisions to the prior readings. Retail sales data is volatile so it’s generally a non market moving release. The data certainly won’t change anything for the ECB at this point.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Costco is poised to benefit from tariff volatility as it offers competitive prices and bulk discounts.

• China has totally violated its agreement with US.
• So much for being Mr. Nice Guy

Trump is unsatisfied with China’s behaviour and he’s now sharing his disapproval on his Truth Social. The US Treasury Secretary Bessent tonight admitted that talks with China have stalled but will have more in the coming weeks.

Markets continue to fade negative news on the tariffs front given that everyone’s now convinced that Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO).

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.