News

• Federal Reserve regional Presidents Musalem and Daly speak on Thursday

• ECB board member and Bank of Spain governor Jose Luis Escriva speaking Thursday
• Daiwa estimates Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs could reduce Japan’s real GDP by 1.1%
• Chinese firms plan to deploy approximately 15,000 advanced Nvidia chips
• Bank of England Deputy Governor, Financial Stability, Sarah Breeden speaks Thursday
• Trump’s tariff hikes fuelling debate at the Fed on interest rate cut timing
• France, U.K., to coordinate use of their nuclear weapons to any major threat to Europe
• ICYMI – China pledges fresh policy support to stabilise employment
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1510 (vs. estimate at 7.1757)
• Tesle (TSLA) boss Musk says robotaxi expanding to cover larger area in Austin this weekend
• Bank of Korea held interest rates steady at 2.5%
• Japan eyes tariff talks with U.S. during Bessent’s World Expo visit next week
• Trump “announcing a 50% TARIFF on Copper, effective August 1, 2025”
• Rabobank forecast EUR/USD to 1.2 in 12 months
• RBA advances wholesale CBDC trials with industry partners
• Japan June PPI +2.9% y/y (expected +2.9%) and -0.2% m/m (expected -0.2%)
• UBS adjusts USD/JPY outlook amid policy and trade shifts, Q3 forecast to 140 from 135
• UK June house prices, RICS survey, -7 (vs. -9 expected)
• Its Trump vs. Sri Lanka now. Trump hits Sri Lanka with a 30% tariff.
• Brazil has already deepened ties with China amid escalating tensions with the U.S.
• OPEC Bans top media outlets from Vienna Oil Conference
• Brazil slammed by Trump’s 50% tariff, real down more than 2%
• EU and US race to finalize car trade deal ahead of Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar treads water as eyes turn back to trade
• In the US? Time to go out and stock up on coffee, OJ. Prices about to rise.
• Trump hits Brazil with a 50% tariff
• US equity close: Strong finish as Nvidia hits $4 trillion
• Trade ideas thread – Thursday, 10 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Trump announced his administration will impose a 50% tariff on all imports from Brazil, effective August 1. Trump framed the Brazil action as politically motivated, voicing support for former President Jair Bolsonaro. Brazilian assets were hit—U.S.-listed Brazilian stocks fell in extended trade and the real weakened.

Soon after Trump confirmed a 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports that he had mooted earlier this week. The moves mark an escalation in his global tariff campaign.

In Japanese data, June wholesale inflation (PPI) eased slightly. Meanwhile, Tokyo is seeking meetings between top negotiator Ryosei Akazawa and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during Bessent’s visit for the World Expo on July 19, ahead of the looming August 1 U.S. tariff deadline.

OPEC banned major media outlets—WSJ, NYT, FT, Reuters, and Bloomberg—from attending its Vienna oil conference, a move raising transparency concerns.

The U.S. dollar softened during the session. USD/JPY dropped below 145.80 before bouncing above 146.20. AUD, NZD, EUR, GBP, and CAD are all modestly firmer. Ranges have been relatively contained.

Geopolitics:

• France and the U.K. will coordinate their nuclear deterrence strategies in response to major threats to Europe.
• Separately, Israel’s IDF intercepted a ballistic missile launched from Yemen, with no injuries reported.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a dicey situation for countries in Asia, specifically South East Asia, as they are also balancing out their respective ties between the US and China. Trump had previously said that he will punish countries aligning with BRICS with additional 10% tariffs. However, it’s not clear which countries those will be.

For some context, Indonesia is a member of the bloc but the likes of Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam have participated as partner countries.

As much as the invite above is one that could help smoothen ties between ASEAN and the US, this would probably be too small an occasion for Trump to be bothered with to attend. And that instead allows for Beijing to continue to grow their engagement with the countries involved. China’s own foreign minister Wang Yi is in Malaysia today to participate in ministerial talks among ASEAN members.

As for Rubio’s visit today, he spoke with Malaysia prime minister Anwar and said that he will take into consideration the discussion of tariffs in relaying the message back to Trump. Malaysia was hit with 25% tariffs in Trump’s latest letter, up from 24% in April, and officials here said they themselves don’t know what went into the change in calculation.

Malaysia had roughly $43.7 billion in exports to the US in 2024. It’s not a massive amount on its own but a notable one, with that being a little more than half of what India does with the US.

As an aside, Rubio was also here to hold talks with Russia’s Lavrov on the situation with Ukraine.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

According to delegates OPEC+ is discussing pausing output hikes from October. In theory, this should be a bullish news but it was already expected.

Oil prices whipsawed on the headline and they are now pretty much back at the levels before the headline dropped.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.