News

United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in line with expectations (50.2) in November

The US Dollar’s rebound from monthly lows below 1.3940 on Friday has stalled below the 1.4000 psychological level on Monday.

The UK’s new budget leans heavily on fiscal restraint and frozen tax thresholds, with weaker growth forecasts and a slow return to target inflation. The tightening backdrop supports expectations for a cautious BOE easing cycle starting in December, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Lee Sue Ann notes.

Country-level data showed a striking split. Six of the eight surveyed economies—led by Ireland at 52.8, Greece at 52.7, and the Netherlands at 51.8—remained in expansion. Italy and Austria also posted multi-year highs, pointing to broad stabilization beneath the surface. However, the aggregate picture remains weak because the region’s industrial heavyweights continue to contract. Germany […]

The post Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.6, small economies improve, big ones falter appeared first on Action Forex.

Concerns over financial stress in the Russian banking system, which first emerged in June, continue to grow. Throughout the year, updates from banking officials and the development ministry have periodically highlighted these pressures, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes.

Can’t keep a good gold down. That seems to be the mantra for 2025 and that’s still persisting as we get into the final month of the year. After a rush higher to start October upon clearing $4,000, gold hit an air pocket before consolidating in a flag/wedge pattern well into November trading. But in ending the month, buyers made a move and now we’re starting to see a technical breakout in a push higher above $4,200 again.

The nudge higher now threatens a daily break above the November high of $4,245, with the highs today being the most in nearly six weeks. As mentioned last week, clearance above $4,200 should continue to keep bulls flying high and the price action today looks to reaffirm that.

In terms of fundamental plays, the Fed being poised to cut rates remains one of the more bullish factors underpinning gold alongside political and geopolitical uncertainties still engulfing markets across the globe. But perhaps it is more straightforward in the sense that demand conditions continue to run more rampant as well, especially when it comes to talks of de-dollarisation and central banks globally – especially China – continuing to ramp up gold buying.

Besides that, flow patterns are also going to be a supportive factor with December being one of the better months for gold in recent years. Last year was an exception though, so will 2025 repeat that pattern or will this year stick to the seasonal norm?

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior 50.0

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior was 49.6

Key findings:

• Supplier delivery times lengthen for third straight month

Comment:

Commenting on the PMI data, Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

“Germany’s manufacturing sector appears to be unable to cross the threshold to expansion. Since July 2022, the headline
PMI has been stuck below the 50 mark, and after it looked in recent months as if it might enter growth territory, the index has
now slumped again. Although companies have now been increasing production for nine months in a row, other indicators
such as order intakes, employment, and inventories clearly show how bad the situation in industry still is.

“Foreign orders have been weak since August, but in November they showed a sharp decline. One explanation could be that
the largest buyers of German products to date, US companies, stocked up on imports in the first half of the year in particular
and now have correspondingly less demand for goods from Germany. It is certainly also unhelpful that the global
manufacturing sector has been more or less stagnating since 2023.

“A look at the sectors shows that production has fallen in the important intermediate goods sector and growth has slowed in
the capital goods sector. In the consumer goods sector, there has been only a slight increase in output. It would not be
surprising if the series of rising manufacturing output, which has already lasted most of the year, were to come to an end in
the coming months. However, this does not necessarily herald a downward trend. This is because expansionary fiscal policy
is likely to take effect in the first half of 2026 at the latest, stimulating demand for machinery for the construction industry and
for defence equipment, among other things.

“Manufacturing companies continue to reduce their workforces. This has been going on for almost two-and-a-half years.
Given the increase in production observed this year, the result is likely to be higher labour productivity, which in itself should
also contribute to the international competitiveness of companies. However, the decline in orders from abroad does not
reflect this, because competitors from other countries may not be sitting idle either.”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior 48.8

No change to the initial print as the French manufacturing sector contracted further in November. New orders continued to fall and of note, employment was reduced for the first time since April. Adding to that, price pressures also intensified so that’s something to be wary about. HCOB notes that:

“French Manufacturing conditions remained weak in November, even as exports rebounded. The headline HCOB PMI
slipped to 47.8, from 48.8 in October, confirming the disappointing flash estimate. The downward trend is particularly evident
in the demand-related sub-indices, leading production volumes to deteriorate further and at the fastest pace since February.
Order books showed little improvement — only foreign orders managed to cross into growth territory — highlighting
persistent weak domestic demand.

“This weakness is mirrored in purchasing activity and inventory dynamics. Companies are scaling back input purchases
while simultaneously reducing inventories, signalling lower production requirements. Payroll numbers, which embarked on a
brief growth stint between May and October, fell back into contraction, pointing to a net fall in employment in November.

“Price development adds further pressure. The HCOB PMI price data indicate that manufacturers face intense competition,
containing output prices. Against this backdrop, margins are likely to compress.

“The negative trend spans all three sub-sectors. While investment goods conditions have been declining for several months,
momentum in consumer goods turned negative after three months of improvement. Interestingly, French manufacturers
reported a marked improvement in future expectations, which contrasts with the prevailing weakness in current conditions.”

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior was 49.9

Key findings:

• Renewed growth in total new orders, supported by improved export sales
• Slight increase in output, but employment and purchasing fall
• Strongest cost inflation in three years

Comment:

Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

“November brought a welcome rebound for Italy’s manufacturing sector. The headline PMI climbed back into expansionary
territory to 50.6, up from 49.9 in October, marking the strongest improvement since March 2023, though the overall pace of
growth remains marginal.

“The headline gain was driven primarily by a renewed increase in new orders, which rose at the fastest rate in more than
three-and-a-half years. Export demand provided a notable boost, ending a five-month run of decline and registering its
sharpest rise since early 2022. However, production growth lagged behind, with output expanding only slightly and
consumer goods makers reporting a drop in activity.

“Despite a notable improvement in order books, manufacturers remained cautious on staffing, opting for dismissals and
refraining from replacing voluntary leavers. Purchasing activity also fell, as companies leaned on existing inventories to meet
production needs. Supply chain conditions remained strained, with delivery times lengthening moderately. Meanwhile, cost
pressures intensified sharply, with input prices rising at the fastest rate in three years, driven by higher raw material costs.
While selling prices increased, the pass-through was limited, pointing to margin compression.

“Italian manufacturers stayed optimistic in November, anticipating improved conditions over the next 12 months. Hopes of a
rebound in global markets and new customer inflows supported confidence, albeit sentiment eased slightly compared to the
previous month. Overall, November’s data signal a fragile return to growth for the Italian manufacturing sector, supported by
export-led demand but tempered by persistent cost inflation and cautious hiring.”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.