News

• Policy patience will allow the Fed to gather more data on the economy

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD has extended to a new session high, reaching 0.6388—a level that aligns with swing highs from March 18 and April 4. This area marks a key resistance ceiling. A sustained break above it is needed to strengthen the bullish bias.

Should buyers push through, the next upside target would be the high from February 21 at 0.6407, followed by the 50% retracement of the decline from the October 1, 2024 high to the April low, which comes in at 0.64278.

That retracement level also aligns closely with the swing high from December 12 at 0.6428, adding to its technical significance as a potential resistance zone.

If the ceiling near 0.6390 holds once again, it could lead to renewed downside pressure as buyers fail to break higher. On the downside, next support comes between 0.6326 and 0.6340. Earlier in the Asian session, the price briefly dipped below that swing area, but quickly snapped back above it—highlighting its importance as near-term support.

A break below that zone, along with a move beneath the broken 38.2% retracement level at 0.63065, would shift the focus toward the 100-day moving average at 0.6289 as a key downside target.

It’s worth noting that over the past month or so, the price has repeatedly broken above the 100-day moving average, only to fail and retreat lower. Each of those upside attempts stalled near the 0.6390 level, reinforcing its role as a stubborn resistance zone and the historical pattern of failed bullish breaks above the 100-day MA.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The World Bank’s Banga is speaking and says:

• Foreign aid is a temporary method to help challenged countries, but will not be the long-term solution for development

• The right regulatory environment must be created to encourage private investment in developing countries and to create jobs

• The ‘all of the above’ energy strategy will be discussed with the board in June

• The energy strategy will include natural gas, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar, wind, and nuclear—but will require board approval

• It’s unclear how much the U.S. or some European countries will contribute to the International Development Association

• There are constructive discussions underway with the U.S. about its continued commitment to the World Bank

The World Bank is an international financial institution that provides loans, grants, and technical expertise to developing countries with the goal of reducing poverty and promoting sustainable economic development.

USAid which works with the World Bank was briefly shuttered by DOGE measures but it continues to operate as the U.S. government’s primary agency for administering foreign aid and development assistance.

However, there have been ongoing political discussions about potentially restructuring or reducing the scope of USAID. Some proposals have included:

• Merging USAID into the State Department

• Cutting its budget significantly

• Shifting foreign aid strategy toward bilateral deals or strategic investments

But none of these proposals have resulted in the agency being shut down.

USAID continues to:

• Fund global health, food security, and humanitarian relief programs

• Operate missions in over 100 countries

• Collaborate with partners like the World Bank, UN agencies, and NGOs

It seems like the trend will be more toward private funding.

Nevertheless, there has been criticism from the Trump administration of mismanagagement and corruption which puts it in the crosshairs for cutting. Plus Trump is in general, not very supportive of efforts outside the US borders.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem addressed the central bank’s policy outlook and answered questions from the media after the BoC paused its easing cycle in April.

The British Pound advanced during the North American session, posting soft gains of 0.14% against the Greenback as inflation slowed to its weakest level in three months. This adds to pressure on the Bank of England to reduce interest rates.

Fitch is out on global turmoil and says:

• Deep cuts to growth forecast as global trade war escalates.
• Still expects Federal Reserve to wait until Q4 before cutting rates despite deteriorating US growth outlook.
• We now expect deeper rate cuts from ECB and in emerging markets.
• Expect some additional US tariff revenues to be recycled back into US economy over the next 18 months, including through tax cuts.
• Lowered 2025 Brent crude oil price assumption by the five US dollars to $65.
• US ‘Liberation Day’ tariff hikes were far worse than expected.
• US inflation forecast has been revised up to over 4%, implying a stagnation in real wages.
• Massive policy uncertainty is hurting business investment prospects, equity price falls are reducing household wealth and US exporters will be hit by retaliation.
• China’s economy has grown faster than expected over the past year, but net trade has accounted for a third of GDP growth. This will slow sharply as exporters struggle to redirect sales in the near term.
• Import prices are set to rise sharply and there has been an alarming jump in US households’ medium-term inflation expectations over the past two months.
• The surprising weakening of the US dollar has created more space for other central banks to ease and we now expect deeper rate cuts from the ECB and in emerging markets.

Growth forecast from Fitch now see:

• Fitch has cut world growth in 2025 by 0.4pp and China and US growth by 0.5pp

• U.S. 2025 growth expected at 1.2% annually, but slowing to 0.4% YoY in Q4 2025

• China’s growth forecast to fall below 4% in both 2025 and 2026

• Eurozone growth projected to remain well below 1%

• Global growth expected to drop below 2% in 2025 – the weakest since 2009, excluding the pandemic

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.