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Gold looked like it might break out earlier today on strong European and Asia buying but the selling has been steady in US trade and picked up in the last two hours.
The reversal coincides with a turn higher in US Treasury yields and optimism about US-China trade following a call between Trump and Xi. There were no meaningful announcements following the call but the sides agreed to a round of meetings led by top deputies. The market is optimistic that it means the path to lower trade tensions is intact.
Gold has largely been a trade war barometer this year with prices exploding after the ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs and hitting an all time high at $3500. Prices backed off after Trump delayed them but gold has held above pre-tariff levels. Gold could also be getting a boost from Ukraine and Iran angst and US deficit concerns.
Today’s price action is disappointing for the bulls though. Yesterday I highlighted the importance of breaking the May high of $3437 in order to extend the uptrend.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
Positive comment, though not surprising.
Trump is starting a meeting with Merz:
Merz:
A separate report says the EU has made changes to its trade team to respond more swiftly to political questions that arise.
Trump:
“We have a deal with China, as you know, but we were straightening out some of the points, having to do mostly with rare earth magnets and some other things.”
Reduced tariff rates negotiated in Geneva remain in effect, he says.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
The market was only priced for a 20% chance of a cut in July so this isn’t a surprise. The market is only pricing in one further cut from the ECB in this cycle.
Update: Goldman Sachs now following the guidance, shifts its rate-cut call to Sept from July.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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