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Yesterday, we got the news that Saudi Arabia was pushing for OPEC+ to maintain its faster pace of oil
production increases in the coming months, aiming to regain market share
rather than support prices.
The news weighed on the market but was quickly faded as the negative supply news continue to have less and less of an impact on prices. This is generally a signal that the market has factored that in and it’s now looking through it.
The thing to watch is the demand side. That should keep on improving in the next months with a renewed trade war as the main risk for the outlook.
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we’ve been ranging for a month now between the 60.00 support and the 64.00 resistance. The market participants will likely continue to play the range until we get a breakout on either side. For now, a breakout to the upside remains the base case, and in such an instance, the 72.00 level will be the next target.
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a smaller range now between the 62.18 support and the 64.00 resistance. Again, participants will keep on playing the range until we get a breakout on either side.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
In the three months to April 2025, retail sales grew by 0.1% in value
and declined by 0.4% in volume compared to the previous three-month
period.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
The decline in activity was steeper than in April but there looks to be some improvement in fortunes, led by a continued recovery in civil engineering activity. Homebuilding and commercial activity continues to stutter though but firms’ expectations for the coming year improved markedly to turn positive for the first time since the start of 2022. HCOB notes that:
“Civil engineering is starting to shake off the slump. While we are not seeing actual growth just yet, the fact that the index
has ticked up for two straight months is a good sign. The big infrastructure package from the federal government is still in the
pipeline, but there is already more momentum behind ongoing projects. That is more than can be said for residential and
commercial construction, which took another hit in May. With civil engineering making up about 14% of the sector’s value
added, it is in a good spot to help pull things up, though it will not be able to do all the heavy lifting on its own.
“The upward trend in long-term German government bond yields since December last year is likely to have contributed to
the sharper downturn in both residential and commercial construction in May. The interest rate cuts by the European Central
Bank are primarily relevant for short-term financing and have therefore only helped the sector to a limited extent. In
residential construction in particular, the sector has taken two steps forward and then one step back in recent months, which
suggests that the outlook is for only a slow improvement. In commercial construction, no clear direction can be derived from
developments over the past six months. The sharp decline in new orders indicates that an economic turnaround is not
imminent in overall construction. This is also supported by the fact that input prices have increased for the third month in a
row, increasing pressure on the profitability of construction firms.
“The mood has definitely improved. Not too long ago, things were looking pretty bleak, with the future activity index just a
few points above the 2008 low. Fast forward to today, with a new federal government and an infrastructure plan in the works,
and confidence is back to early 2022 levels. It will still take a bit before that optimism turns into real action on the ground. But
if all goes well, 2026 could be the year when growth really kicks in, spreading from civil engineering into residential and
commercial construction.”
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
A leading U.S. auto supplier group is warning that China’s restrictions on rare earth and critical mineral exports pose an urgent threat to the industry. MEMA, the Vehicle Suppliers Association, said on Wednesday that parts manufacturers are already facing “serious, real-time risks” to their supply chains.
The group stressed that the situation remains unresolved and that concerns are mounting, calling for “immediate and decisive action” to avoid widespread disruption and economic fallout across the vehicle supply sector.
–
Earlier headline here:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
Fundamental
Overview
Gold got stuck in a bit of
a consolidation this week after the Monday’s rally. Some renewed trade tensions
gave the precious metal a boost in the final part of last week but since then things
have calmed down.
In the bigger picture, gold
remains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed
easing. But in the short-term the repricing in rate cuts expectations could
weigh on gold, so watch out for the economic data, especially the NFP and CPI
reports.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold broke above the downward trendline and opened the door for a move into
new highs. The buyers piled in on the break to target the 3438 level next. The
sellers, on the other hand, might want to wait for the price to come into the
3438 level to position for a drop back into the major upward trendline.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. From a
risk management perspective, if we get a pullback, the buyers will have a
better risk to reward setup around the trendline to position for a rally into
the 3438 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to start targeting the 3200 level next.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a nice support zone around the 3330 level. That’s where the
buyers stepped in on the pullback to position for a rally into the 3438 level
next. If the price continue to range and we get another pullback into the
support, we can expect the buyers to pile in again, while the sellers will look
for a break lower to extend the drop into the 3200 level next. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow,
we conclude the week with the US NFP report.
Watch the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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