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It’s all positive for the Swiss economy in Q1 with the services sector posting growth. But there was a big boost in exports as firms appeared to be sending out products to the US in the rush to beat Trump’s tariffs. So, there’s that too.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Fundamental
Overview
The USD remains on the
backfoot as the support from the more hawkish repricing in interest rates
expectations got exhausted. The market is now in line with the Fed’s baseline
projection of two cuts in 2025 and we will likely need strong US data to price
out the remaining rate cuts and give the greenback a boost.
The recent weakness in the
US Dollar got triggered by the weaker than expected US jobless claims figures
on Thursday although that might have been an overreaction considering that the
data was still below the cycle high at 260K and continuing claims could get positively
revised this week.
On the JPY side, the
currency weakened across the board recently after we got the news that Japan
was considering trimming the issuance of super-long bonds. That was enough to
calm the markets in the short term and weigh on the yen.
On the monetary policy
side, the market is still unsure on another rate hike given that it’s pricing
just 18 bps of tightening by year-end. Nonetheless, that’s been creeping up in
the last few weeks supported also by higher than expected Japanese inflation
data. The US-Japan trade deal and the evolution of inflation will be key for
the BoJ.
USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY rejected the 146.00 handle and it’s now on its way towards the
142.35 support zone. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to step
in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the
148.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 140.00 handle next.
USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the US Dollar selloff helped by
the weaker than expected US jobless claims data on Thursday. There’s not much
else we can glean from this timeframe so we need to zoom in to see some more
details.
USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearish
momentum. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep
pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to start
targeting the 148.00 handle next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today, we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we
get the US Job Openings data. On Wednesday, we have the US ADP and the US ISM
Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the Japanese wage data and the latest US Jobless
Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.
Watch the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Gold started a fresh increase above the $3,300 resistance level. WTI Crude Oil is gaining bullish momentum and might even test $62.75. Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today Gold price started a steady increase from the $3,250 zone against the US Dollar. A connecting bearish trend line is forming with […]
The post Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Could Gain Bullish Pace appeared first on Action Forex.
Markets ‘Trade noise’ is moving again to the fore, further complicating any eco-driven market reaction function. Soft US data (US Q1 GDP was upwardly revised to -0.2% Q/Qa, but with a setback in private consumption and a soft core PCE deflator; claims were also higher than expected) triggered a setback in US yields on Thursday. […]
The post Trade-Related Uncertainty Continues Dominating Market Talk This Morning appeared first on Action Forex.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 193.24; (P) 193.95; (R1) 194.51; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 196.38. Further rise is in favor as long as 191.86 support holds. Firm break of 196.38 will resume whole rally from 184.35. However, firm break of 191.86 will indicate near term reversal and […]
The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.83; (P) 163.45; (R1) 164.09; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral. On the upside, above 164.24 will bring retest of 165.19 resistance first. Firm break there will resume while rise from 154.77 to 166.67 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 161.06 will resume the decline from 165.19 instead. In the […]
The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8412; (P) 0.8425; (R1) 0.8446; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 0.8354 short term bottom should continue to 0.8458 resistance, and then 38.2% retracement of 0.8737 to 0.8354 at 0.8500. Nevertheless, break of 0.8354 will resume the decline from 0.8737 instead. In the […]
The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7603; (P) 1.7651; (R1) 1.7690; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the upside at this point. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.7245 at 1.7745 will solidify the case that fall from 1.8554 has completed as a correction. Next target is 61.8% retracement at 1.8054. On the downside, […]
The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9318; (P) 0.9339; (R1) 0.9356; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral as sideway trading continues. Rise from 0.9218 might continue, either as a correction to fall from 0.9660, or the third leg of the pattern from 0.9204. On the upside, above 0.9419 will target 0.9445 resistance and above. Nevertheless, on the […]
The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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