News

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 remain unchanged at -2.2%. The gold import and export adjusted GDP also remains unchanged at -0.1%.

In their own words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.2 percent on April 17, unchanged from April 16 after rounding. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.1 percent. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, both the standard model’s and the alternative model’s nowcasts of first-quarter real residential fixed investment growth decreased from 3.7 percent to 2.9 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, April 24. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Gold price (XAU/USD) corrects to near $3,290 in Thursday’s North American session after hitting a fresh all-time high of $3,358 earlier in the day.

Citibank sees gold prices rallying to $3500 over the next three months. The previous estimate was $3000 with the average of $3250 during Q2 2025.

Gold prices reached a high on Wednesday at $3357.92. The price is currently down $41.40 or -1.24% to $3298.59.

Technically, the 100-hour moving average is rising and currently at $3260.83 just above the average price as expected from Citibank. Holding above that level would keep the sellers in firm control. On a break below, the 38.2% retracement of the recent move up from the April 7 low comes in at $3204.43.

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Gold has benefited from flight to safety flows. Central banks have also been big buyers.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters is reporting that ECB sources are saying:

• Some ECB governors already see high chance of a June rate cut.
• Other governors still far from deciding, placing increased emphasis on real-time soft indicators.

The lean is for a cut but not decided which is not surprising.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Summary The European Central Bank (ECB), in a widely expected decision, lowered its Deposit Rate by 25 bps to 2.25% at today’s announcement, while its accompanying statement was dovish overall in tone. In one significant change, the ECB no longer described its policy stance as restrictive. At the same time, however, it refrained from explicitly […]

The post European Central Bank Still Moving Steadily Along Rate Cut Path appeared first on Action Forex.

The Pound Sterling remained steady against the US Dollar on Thursday after US economic data suggested that the labor market remains solid, while housing data was mixed. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3250 up 0.11%.

Treasury Secretary Bessent is reportedly to meet Italy’s economic minister on Tuesday at the G20 summit. Trump is expected to meet with Italy’s prime minister today.

Italy’s Economic minister says:

• Tax policy including domestic digital levies is matter to be negotiated with US at bilateral not EU level.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is scheduled to meet with President Trump today in Washington. Meloni seeks to balance national interests with EU solidarity, potentially advocating for increased purchases of American liquefied natural gas and military equipment to ease tensions. ​

An EU spokesman said yesterday that they expect tariffs to be enacted eventually as trade talks are not making progress.

Yesterday, President Trump met with Japanese officials, including Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa, to discuss tariffs and trade relations. While Japan aimed to focus on trade and investment, Trump expanded the agenda to include defense cost-sharing. Despite a temporary 90-day hold on new tariffs, existing tariffs of 10% to 25% on Japanese goods remain in place. Both sides have agreed to continue discussions later this month.

China remains the main problem and while no direct meetings between President Trump and Chinese officials have been reported recently, China’s President Xi Jinping is actively engaging with Southeast Asian nations to strengthen regional ties amid U.S. tariff policies. Trump enacted tariffs of up to 145% on China imports.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Tariff headlines remain at the top of investors’ agendas. But flash S&P Global PMIs could attract special attention. Auctions to reveal information about demand for Treasuries. Tokyo CPI data and Canada’s retail sales also on tap. Trump’s back and forth tariff game Since the beginning of the month, the spotlight has been locked on headlines […]

The post Week Ahead – Eyes on Flash PMIs as Tariff Uncertainty Persists appeared first on Action Forex.