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Albert Lee previously led corporate development for Google Cloud and Google DeepMind.

Friday provided a sharp shift in post-FOMC flows. The strong rallies in Equities—particularly in defensive sectors—turned sour as Fed members began to voice concerns regarding their recent decision. The bounce in the Debasement Trade following the Fed meeting came as a surprise, especially given that the cut and projections were more defensive than aggressive. Indeed, […]

The post US Stock Index Outlook: Weak sentiment ahead of NFP appeared first on ActionForex.

The war in Ukraine began nearly four years ago, when Russia invaded at the direction of its leader, Vladimir Putin.

If you’ve been watching the Canadian curve steepen with bets on Bank of Canada hikes, CIBC has a message for you: Not so fast.

Following the November CPI release earlier today, CIBC’s Andrew Grantham is out with a note pouring cold water on the recent hawkish repricing in the market. While headline inflation held steady at 2.2%, Grantham argues the details don’t support the aggressive pricing for hikes we’ve seen creeping into the strip before the end of 2026.

The “Push and Pull” keeps the Bank on hold

Grantham describes the current environment as a “push and pull” dynamic. You have the “push” of stronger food and gasoline prices—grocery costs just saw their biggest monthly jump since March —being offset by the “pull” of softer core inflation.

That leaves the Bank of Canada in a bind, but a stable one.

Key takeaways from CIBC:

• The Sweet Spot (sort of): Underlying inflation is sitting around 2.5%. That is still “too high” to justify any further interest rate cuts right now.

• The Pushback: However, the data isn’t hot enough to validate the market’s recent pricing for rate hikes. Pricing is currently at 12% for a hike in September or sooner with one hike at 92% by year end.

• Volatility Ahead: Don’t get chopped up by headline volatility in the coming months. Grantham warns that base effects from last year’s GST/HST holiday will make the headline numbers noisy, even as core measures (excluding tax changes) likely continue to ease.

The bottom line from CIBC is that the Bank of Canada is locked into a “prolonged pause”. That’s likely to make the Fed side of the equation more meaningful for USD/CAD.

They continue to forecast the overnight rate holding steady at the current 2.25% level throughout the entirety of next year. Bond yields and the Loonie drifted marginally lower on the print, suggesting traders are already starting to unwind some of those hike bets.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold (XAU/USD) holds firm on Monday after hitting a daily high of $4,350 earlier, but traders booking profits sent the yellow metal to erase its earlier gains as the Greenback continues to print losses. XAU/USD trades at $4,296 virtually unchanged.

Gold (XAU/USD) holds firm on Monday after hitting a daily high of $4,350 earlier, but traders booking profits sent the yellow metal to erase its earlier gains as the Greenback continues to print losses. XAU/USD trades at $4,296 virtually unchanged.

AUD/USD remains under pressure on Monday, with the Australian Dollar (AUD) edging lower as the US Dollar (USD) stages a modest rebound ahead of a heavy US economic docket due on Tuesday. At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading around 0.6637, staying on the back foot for a third consecutive day.

The NZDUSD moved higher last week, and in the process extended above its 100-day moving average, signaling an improvement in the near-term technical picture. The upside push carried the pair toward the lower boundary of a key swing area between 0.5830 and 0.5844, an area that has acted as resistance in the past. Sellers leaned against that zone, limiting upside follow-through and forcing a pullback into the end of the week.

Sellers defend resistance, buyers protect support

As the week progressed, selling pressure pushed the pair back toward the 100-day moving average, which acted as a magnet for price action. In early trading today, the downside extended further, with NZDUSD sliding toward the upper boundary of a prior swing area between 0.5748 and 0.57609. The low reached 0.5765, just above that support zone, before buyers stepped in and sparked a rebound.

Natural resistance caps the rebound near 0.5800

The bounce off support has so far been contained by natural resistance near 0.5800, an area that also coincides closely with the 100-day moving average. That confluence has once again proven difficult to overcome, with price stalling near the level and reinforcing its importance as a short-term dividing line between bullish and bearish control.

Short-term range battle mirrors AUDUSD

Like AUDUSD, NZDUSD is currently caught between nearby support and resistance, with neither buyers nor sellers able to assert sustained control. Buyers continue to defend dips toward the mid-0.57 area, while sellers remain active on rallies toward the 0.5800–0.5840 region. The tightening range suggests the market is coiling, as traders wait for the next decisive push to set direction.

Bottom line

NZDUSD sits at a technical crossroads. Holding above the 0.5748–0.5761 support zone keeps buyers engaged, while a break back above the 100-day moving average and the 0.5830–0.5844 resistance area would tilt the bias more decisively higher. Until one of those levels gives way, range-bound trade and patience are likely to dominate the near-term outlook.

Watch the Video Analysis

In the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving this move in real-time. I outline exactly where the risk lies, how to interpret these moving average bounces, and map out the next targets that matter most for the NZD/USD currency pair.

Be aware. Be prepared.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Zillow shares fell more than 11% on Monday as investors grew concerned that Google could be testing real estate listings on its search page.

“UPS has played the Grinch,” New York Attorney General Letitia James said in a new lawsuit accusing the company of shorting seasonal workers on their pay.