News

New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence rose from previous 58.1 to 67.1 in November

Overnight, shares of artificial intelligence player Oracle boosted major U.S. averages after Deutsche Bank reaffirmed its bullish stance on the name.

Japan is preparing to significantly expand short-tenor bond issuance to help fund its latest economic stimulus package, according to officials speaking to Reuters. The government plans to boost issuance of two- and five-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs), lifting total scheduled JGB sales for the fiscal year through March by roughly ¥7 trillion from the current ¥171.8 trillion target. Longer-dated supply, 10-, 20-, 30- and 40-year bonds, will remain unchanged.

The revised funding plan also includes an additional ¥6 trillion in treasury discount bills to strengthen near-term financing capacity. Monthly issuance of two- and five-year JGBs is expected to rise by ¥100 billion each from January. The proposal will be presented to primary dealers on Thursday before going to cabinet for approval on Friday, alongside the extra budget tied to the stimulus programme.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Wall Street Journal reports that President Trump privately urged Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to soften her rhetoric toward China after she came out forcefully on Taiwan.

According to people familiar with the call, Trump encouraged Takaichi to “lower the tone” in order to avoid inflaming tensions with President Xi Jinping at a delicate moment in U.S.–China–Japan relations. The exchange underscores the geopolitical sensitivity surrounding Taiwan, where Japan’s vocal support has drawn Beijing’s ire, and highlights Washington’s ongoing efforts to manage allied messaging as it navigates its own strategic competition with China.

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Some background on this for weeks ago, this issue is not going away:

• China State Media: China Pres. Xi and US Pres. Trump held call

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

For all the worries about a bubble in U.S. AI spending, capital flows into China’s tech sector is far less, pushing startups to do more with less.

Deutsche Bank has lifted its 2026 gold forecast, citing a rare alignment of structural and technical forces that continue to push the metal beyond historical patterns.

• The bank now expects gold to reach US$4,450/oz in 2026, up from its previous US$4,000/oz projection,
• and sees the trading range widening to US$3,950–4,950/oz.

Analysts said gold’s performance is increasingly breaking from long-standing norms, noting that its outperformance relative to the US dollar now rivals a record set only last year. They also highlight that the projected 2025 trading range is the widest since 1980, a signal of elevated two-way volatility and persistent structural demand.

Deutsche Bank points to several supportive factors.

• Investor flows have stabilised,
• technical signals suggest the positioning clean-out is complete,
• and third-quarter supply-demand data shows central banks remain significant net buyers.

Structural demand remains “inelastic,” the bank said, with continued reserve-manager accumulation and ETF allocation diverting supply away from jewellery markets at a time when overall demand continues to outpace available supply.

However, the bank emphasised that risks remain.

• Gold’s tendency to trade positively with risk assets means a deeper equity-market correction could be damaging.
• Deutsche Bank’s house view also anticipates less Fed easing in 2026 than markets expect (–50bps versus –93bps), which would temper the bullish case.
• A negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine war could temporarily weigh on prices, and reserve managers may eventually slow their pace of buying. Historically, sharp increases in real gold prices have often been followed by significant retracements.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Christian Hawkesby said the central bank is now more confident that monetary policy has shifted firmly into stimulatory territory after a series of substantial cash-rate cuts.

Speaking on Thursday, NZ time, he suggested the economic recovery could come through “faster and stronger” than previously expected, while acknowledging the downside risk that households and businesses remain overly cautious into late 2025 and early 2026.

Hawkesby also raised concerns about a global trend toward eroding central-bank operational independence, warning that diminished autonomy could leave inflation less controlled worldwide.

Domestically, he noted that the New Zealand dollar continues to function as a shock absorber, helping cushion the economy through external volatility.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The EUR/USD registers back-to-back bullish days boosted by speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut rates at the December meeting, following the release of a strong jobs report. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1595, up 0.22% after bouncing off daily lows of 1.1547.

HSBC expects OpenAI to remain unprofitable until at least 2030, warning that the company will need an additional US$207 billion to fund its rapidly expanding compute footprint. While the bank analysts project OpenAI’s revenue could exceed US$213 billion by the end of the decade, it argues that infrastructure demands will vastly outpace cash generation.

• HSBC estimates OpenAI’s compute commitments could swell to US$1.4 trillion by 2033.
• Between now and 2030, the analysts model roughly US$792 billion in cloud and AI-infrastructure costs, including about US$620 billion in data-centre rentals alone.

The team, led by Nicolas Cote-Colisson, said OpenAI’s growth trajectory confronts “soaring infrastructure costs,” intensifying competition and an AI landscape that is “cash-intensive beyond any technology trend in history.”

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

JPMorgan has reversed its stance on U.S. monetary policy and now expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the December meeting. Chief US economist Michael Feroli said recent remarks from senior Fed officials, especially New York Fed President John Williams, point clearly toward a near-term easing move. The bank had previously forecast no change after the delayed September jobs report muddied the signal.

JPMorgan now expects quarter-point cuts in both December and January. Feroli noted that the latest round of Fedspeak “tilts the odds” toward action, aligning the bank’s view with market pricing, where swaps imply roughly a >80% chance of a December cut.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.