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New Zealand Retail Sales ex Autos (QoQ) climbed from previous 0.7% to 1.9% in 3Q

Soaring NZ retail sales for Q3 2025.

New Zealand Retail Sales +1.9% q/q

• expected +0.6%, prior +0.5%

New Zealand Retail Sales Quarterly vs. Year Ago +4.5%

• prior +2.3%

Signs of a New Zealand economy getting off the canvas has been welcomed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The Bank pushed the door shut on further rate cuts in is statement/minutes/conference yesterday. Barring a return to poor economic performance, of course.

The new Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor, Dr Anna Breman, will begin on 1 December 2025. She’s walking into an improved situation.

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The NZD remained firm on Wednesday trade in Europe and US after jumping here in Asia after the RBNZ announcement:

• investingLive Americas FX news wrap 26 Nov:NZD soars on Hawkish Cut/GBP rallies on budget

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ) came in at 1.9%, above forecasts (0.6%) in 3Q

• Major US indices close higher for the 4th consecutive day
• Carney to meet Trump at World Cup draw as Canada-U.S. trade talks remain frozen
• RBNZ Hawkesby: We are in a position where we can sort of watch and see how things progress
• NZ Finance minister names Rodger Finlay chair of the RBNZ
• Two military personnel shot near the White House according to ABC News
• Crude oil futures settle at $58.65
• Federal Reserve minutes from the November meeting:Little changed since the previous report
• Baker Hughes oil rig count -12 to 407
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow falls to 3.9% from 4.0%
• US 30 year fixed-rate mortgage 6.23% vs 6.26% last week
• Major European’s indices close higher
• The US treasury sells $44 billion of 7 year notes at a high yield of 3.781%
• ECB’s Lane: For sustainability of inflation at 2%, needs to see deceleration of energy px
• Crude oil inventories build of 2.774 million versus estimate 0.055 million
• Tech sector rallies: Nvidia leads the charge, Google stumbles
• ECBs Vujcic: It has become more difficult to forecast food inflation due to climate change
• US Durable goods orders for September 0.5% versus 0.3% estimate
• US initial jobless claims 216K vs 225K expected
• investingLive European markets wrap: Another UK budget fiasco
• UK chancellor Reeves: There will be no return to austerity

The US Dollar traded mostly lower against most major peers today (with the notable exception of the Yen), as risk appetite returned to the markets and specific domestic catalysts drove outperformance in the New Zealand Dollar and British Pound.

1. The RBNZ Shock: A “Hawkish Cut” (NZD +1.32%)

The New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) was the undisputed top performer of the day, surging 1.32% to 0.5694.

• The Catalyst: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.25%, as widely expected.

• The Twist: Despite the cut, the move was interpreted as “hawkish” because the RBNZ explicitly signaled that the easing cycle is effectively over. Governor Christian Hawkesby’s committee indicated that rates are likely to remain on hold throughout 2026, defying market expectations for deeper cuts.

• Market Reaction: This “one-and-done” signal forced a massive repricing of interest rate expectations, triggering a short squeeze that propelled the Kiwi significantly higher against the Greenback and the Aussie.

2. Sterling and the Budget (GBP +0.49%)

The British Pound (Cable) staged a solid recovery, rising 0.49% to 1.3231, as markets reacted positively to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Autumn Budget.

• Budget Summary: The Chancellor delivered a “growth-focused” budget that avoided the worst-case tax scenarios feared by the City. Key points included:

  • No new bank taxes: A decision to avoid a fresh tax squeeze on the banking sector reassured investors.

  • Fiscal Headroom: The release (inadvertently leaked early by the OBR) revealed a larger-than-anticipated fiscal buffer, signaling fiscal responsibility alongside investment.

  • Lack of 2026 Tax Hikes: The absence of aggressive future tax hikes for the coming year calmed “budget jitters.”

• Market Reaction: The combination of fiscal prudence and growth initiatives triggered a relief rally. Gilt yields eased, and the Pound moved higher as the “uncertainty risk premium” that had weighed on the currency in recent weeks evaporated.

3. Broader Currency Moves

• USD/JPY (+0.27% to 156.46): The Yen was an outlier, weakening slightly against the Dollar. This move largely reflects improved global risk sentiment (equity markets recovering, fueled by reports of a potential Ukraine-Russia peace framework), which reduced demand for safe-haven assets like the Yen. The lower JPY also occurred despite expectations that the BOJ may look to raise rates in reaction to the weaker JPY. Well the JPY was weaker today.

• USD/CAD (-0.41% to 1.4038): The Canadian Dollar strengthened (pushing USD/CAD lower) despite oil prices testing key support levels. The Loonie likely benefited from the broad weakness in the USD and positive cross-border trade sentiment.

• AUD/USD (+0.76% to 0.6516): The Australian Dollar rallied in sympathy with the NZD and benefited from the overall “risk-on” tone in global markets.

Fundamentally and other market data.

• US initial jobless claims came in lower than expectations that 216K vs 225K last week. No noticeable slowdown in the weekly claims.
• US durable goods came in stronger than expectations, but it was for the month of September as they catch up continues
• Crude oil inventories showed a greater than expected build of inventories. Despite the build, will prices are higher in the day by $0.63 at $58.58
• Gold prices moved higher by $34 or 0.83% at $4164
• Silver soared by $1.80 or 3.5% to $53.25
• Bitcoin rose sharply by $3000 or 3.3% to $90299 (see post here). The high price reached $90,445. The next target comes in at $94,229 (the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the October 27 swing high).
• US stocks moved higher led by the NASDAQ index up 0.82%. The S&P index rose 0.69% and the Dow industrial average rose 0.67%.
• US yields were mixed with the two-year up to basis points at 3.479%. The 10 year yield was down 0.8 basis points and back below the 4.00 level at 3.994%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Bank of America has turned more cautious on U.S. equities, predicting only modest gains for the S&P 500 through 2026. The bank sees the index rising to around 7,100, roughly a 5% increase, as stretched valuations are likely to compress even as earnings continue to grow. BofA expects profits to rise about 14% but notes that liquidity tailwinds are ebbing due to softer buyback activity, heavier capital-expenditure plans and limited room for further central-bank easing.

The forecast includes a wide potential trading range of 5,500 to 8,500, underscoring elevated uncertainty. BofA also expects a shift in market leadership, favouring capex-driven sectors and blue-collar themes over consumption and white-collar exposure. The bank upgraded Staples to Overweight and cut Consumer Discretionary. On AI, it warns that monetisation may prove slower than hoped and that the industry faces near-term constraints, including surging power requirements.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The major US stock indices are closing higher led by the NASDAQ index with a gain of 0.82%.

Looking at the closing levels:

• Dow industrial average is up 314.67 points or 0.67% at 47427.12
• S&P index is up 46.73 points or 0.69% at 6812.61
• NASDAQ index is up 189.10 points or 0.82% at 23214.69.

The indices are up for the 4th consecutive day helped by a shift in the Fed bias led by comments from near Fed Pres Williams. The odds of a Fed rate cut moved up from about 35% last week to close to 85% this week. The Fed interest rate decision will take place on December 10. The Fed will enter their blackout period at the close on Friday.

J.P. Morgan is now saying that they expect the Fed to cut in December.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Washington next week for the 2026 World Cup draw, where he expects to meet U.S. President Donald Trump.

Carney said the pair spoke briefly on Tuesday, but noted that trade negotiations remain stalled.

Talks were halted last month after Ontario aired an advertisement featuring former President Ronald Reagan warning that tariffs can trigger trade wars and economic damage. Carney said discussions on reviving the trade agenda in key sectors have not restarted.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Both NZD and AUD were swung around by events in Asia yesterday, the Kiwi from the RBNZ rate cut and the Aussie by surging inflation:

• investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: AUD up (high CPI), NZD up (rate cut), JPY up (BoJ)

The data from NZ and Oz won’t impact as much, but I’ll keep an eye on the releases and post thier implications.

With the US out now for a holiday Thursday that’ll somehow stretch into a slack Friday and a long weekend Asian traders will be reluctant to punt too heavily during the session here.

• This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) found a fresh round of bidding strength on Wednesday, lurching into its highest levels against the US Dollar (USD) in a week.

RBNZ Gov. Hawkesby is on the wires saying:

• We think we are in a position where we can put out an OCR projection, which is broadly unchanged
• We are in a position where we can sort of watch and see how things progress over the course of next year.
• There are a number of labor market indicators that are starting to pick up.
• Our indicators are telling is now that the economy expanded through Q3
• Recovery in economy is happening right now
• over 2nd half of this year, annualized GDP rate is running not short of 3%.
• High degree of confidence that over next few quarters inflation is going to be coming down.
• We actually need to create some inflation through stronger economic activity.

The RBNZ cut rates by 25 basis points and signaled that they expect the OCR to remain at current levels through 2025.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.