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Here are the forecasts from Deutsche Bank for the years ahead:

Deutsche Bank’s reasoning is as follows.

Key medium-term USD bearish drivers:

• Supportive EU vs. US fiscal stance: thanks to German fiscal policy.
• Valuations: Purchasing power parity in the 1.25-1.30 range acts as medium-term anchor for EUR/USD amid geopolitical uncertainty.
• US asset risk premium & weaponing risk: Persistent global diversification away from USD assets, driven by US economic policy unpredictability and concerns over sanctions.
• US cyclical slowdown: A weaker growth trajectory to achieve medium-term inflation objectives, with added drag from unpredictable policymaking.

Short-term outlook:

• YE-25 forecasts remain conservative.
• The likely dovish ECB reaction function in the near-term will constrain the widening in short-term EU-US interest rate differentials plus broader uncertainty on US policy path in coming months.

Risks:

• A faster US climbdown on aggressive trade policy and a more growth-supportive US budget bill is likely to slow down the dollar downtrend, while a continued erratic shift in trade policy combined with larger than expected fiscal tightening is likely to lead to accelerated dollar downside.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Ford Motor Co. has warned dealers that vehicle prices could rise on models produced from May onwards if President Trump’s auto tariffs remain in place.

While its current nationwide discount program will continue through 2 June, the company said pricing for newer models may need to be adjusted due to rising costs.

Reuters cite a memo they have seen for the info.

• Ford’s Andrew Frick said that if the current tariff policy holds, price increases will likely begin with May production, though customers wouldn’t see those changes until early July.
• However, prices on vehicles already in dealer inventory will remain unchanged.

This is despite Ford being relatively well-insulated from the worst effects of the tariffs, with 80% of its U.S. sales produced domestically.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Awaiting news on this.

I’ll be keen to hear the readout from Japanese officials, I suspect it’ll be more reliable than any we’ll get from the US side. I’m not suggesting the US side is deceptive, its just that the grasp they have on reality is mainly lacking.

Oh, here we go, Trump says ‘big progress’, whatever that means.

Trump me with Ishiba a few weeks ago.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.