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Tesla’s sale of new cars in Norway skyrocketed 213% in May from a year ago, bucking a sharp downward trend across Europe.

Tesla’s sale of new cars in Norway skyrocketed 213% in May from a year ago, bucking a sharp downward trend across Europe.

• Preliminary 52.3
• Prior 50.2
• Final S&P global manufacturing PMI for May 52.0

From Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P
Global Market Intelligence

“The rise in the PMI during May masks worrying
developments under the hood of the US manufacturing
economy. While growth of new orders picked up and
suppliers were reportedly busier as companies built
up their inventory levels at an unprecedented rate, the
common theme was a temporary surge in demand as
manufacturers and their customers worry about supply
issues and rising prices.

“These concerns were not without basis: supplier
delays have risen to the highest since October 2022,
and incidences of price hikes are at their highest since
November 2022, blamed in most cases on tariffs.
Smaller firms, and those in consumer facing markets,
appear worst hit so far by the impact of tariffs on supply
and prices.

“Encouragingly, manufacturers regained some optimism
in May after sentiment had been hit hard by tariff
announcements in April, partly reflecting the pauses
on new levies. However, uncertainty clearly remains
elevated amid the fluid tariff environment, and factories
have so far shown a reluctance to expand headcounts in
the face of such volatility.”

The details from S&P GLobal:

Headline PMI Data

• PMI: 52.0 in May (up from 50.2 in March and April)

• Best reading since February; indicates solid growth in the manufacturing sector

🔹 New Orders

• Rose to the strongest level in 3 months

• Domestic demand was the primary driver

• Export sales remained weak; only slight recovery after April’s sharp fall

• Clients were front-running tariffs, placing orders early

🔹 Input Inventories

• Record-high increase in input inventories (largest in 18 years of data)

• Stockpiling driven by concerns over tariffs and supply chain disruption

🔹 Production & Output

• Production volumes trimmed slightly for third straight month

• Backlogs of work continued to fall modestly

• Firms had sufficient capacity to meet demand

🔹 Employment

• Employment rose for the first time in 3 months

• Growth was marginal due to difficulty finding qualified workers

🔹 Prices

• Input price inflation remained high, though eased to a 3-month low

• Tariffs cited as key reason for cost increases; suppliers passed costs on

• Factory gate prices (output charges) rose at the fastest pace since Nov 2022

🔹 Supply Chains

• Supplier delivery delays worsened to the worst level since Oct 2022

• Delays linked to stock shortages and tariff-related disruptions

🔹 Finished Goods Inventories

• Rose in May for the first time since November

🔹 Business Confidence

• Outlook improved to a 3-month high

• Optimism driven by expectations that tariff-related disruptions may ease within a year

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Preliminary 52.3
• Prior 50.2
• Final S&P global manufacturing PMI for May 52.0

From Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P
Global Market Intelligence

“The rise in the PMI during May masks worrying
developments under the hood of the US manufacturing
economy. While growth of new orders picked up and
suppliers were reportedly busier as companies built
up their inventory levels at an unprecedented rate, the
common theme was a temporary surge in demand as
manufacturers and their customers worry about supply
issues and rising prices.

“These concerns were not without basis: supplier
delays have risen to the highest since October 2022,
and incidences of price hikes are at their highest since
November 2022, blamed in most cases on tariffs.
Smaller firms, and those in consumer facing markets,
appear worst hit so far by the impact of tariffs on supply
and prices.

“Encouragingly, manufacturers regained some optimism
in May after sentiment had been hit hard by tariff
announcements in April, partly reflecting the pauses
on new levies. However, uncertainty clearly remains
elevated amid the fluid tariff environment, and factories
have so far shown a reluctance to expand headcounts in
the face of such volatility.”

The details from S&P GLobal:

Headline PMI Data

• PMI: 52.0 in May (up from 50.2 in March and April)

• Best reading since February; indicates solid growth in the manufacturing sector

🔹 New Orders

• Rose to the strongest level in 3 months

• Domestic demand was the primary driver

• Export sales remained weak; only slight recovery after April’s sharp fall

• Clients were front-running tariffs, placing orders early

🔹 Input Inventories

• Record-high increase in input inventories (largest in 18 years of data)

• Stockpiling driven by concerns over tariffs and supply chain disruption

🔹 Production & Output

• Production volumes trimmed slightly for third straight month

• Backlogs of work continued to fall modestly

• Firms had sufficient capacity to meet demand

🔹 Employment

• Employment rose for the first time in 3 months

• Growth was marginal due to difficulty finding qualified workers

🔹 Prices

• Input price inflation remained high, though eased to a 3-month low

• Tariffs cited as key reason for cost increases; suppliers passed costs on

• Factory gate prices (output charges) rose at the fastest pace since Nov 2022

🔹 Supply Chains

• Supplier delivery delays worsened to the worst level since Oct 2022

• Delays linked to stock shortages and tariff-related disruptions

🔹 Finished Goods Inventories

• Rose in May for the first time since November

🔹 Business Confidence

• Outlook improved to a 3-month high

• Optimism driven by expectations that tariff-related disruptions may ease within a year

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

While the inflationary impact on U.S. domestic prices is widely expected to be severe, the effect in Europe will be more mixed, according to analysts.

While the inflationary impact on U.S. domestic prices is widely expected to be severe, the effect in Europe will be more mixed, according to analysts.

• Prior month 45.3
• Canada may manufacturing PMI 46.1

Looking at the details from the S&P global:

• Headline PMI: 46.1 in May (up from 45.3 in April)

  • Below 50.0 for the 4th consecutive month → continued contraction

• Production & Orders:

  • Output and new orders declined again; contractions remained steep

  • International demand especially weak; export orders fell more than domestic

  • Clients hesitant to place new orders due to tariff uncertainty

• Inventories & Supply Chains:

  • Input and finished goods inventories cut further to reduce stock costs

  • Some firms dipped into inventories due to supplier delays

  • Vendor delivery times worsened again amid port congestion and customs delays

• Prices & Inflation:

  • Input cost inflation accelerated, near March’s 31-month peak

  • Tariffs cited as key reason for higher input prices (e.g., livestock, metals, plastics)

  • Firms raised output prices, though the rate of increase was at a 3-month low

• Employment & Capacity:

  • Job losses for 4th straight month; steepest since June 2020

  • Backlogs of orders declined but less sharply than in April

  • Spare capacity remains elevated

• Purchasing Activity:

  • Purchasing volumes cut for 5th straight month (since January)

  • Contraction in buying reflects lower production needs

• Business Sentiment:

  • Confidence remained subdued

  • Hopes for macro stability, but trade policy concerns dominate outlook

  • U.S. trade flows remain weak

Paul Smith,
Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence
said:

“With manufacturers continuing to be hit by tariffs and
trade uncertainty, May saw the sector experience a
further significant contraction. Although declines were
softer than in April, both production and new orders
again fell to noticeable degrees amid reports that
market demand was weak – again largely because of
tariffs.

“Moreover, the hard to predict nature of trade policies
means the outlook for production remains extremely
uncertain and given the recent scale of the downturn
in the sector, job losses are mounting. Indeed, latest
data showed the steepest decline in employment since
the height of the COVID pandemic in 2020 with spare
capacity and rising costs also an increasing problem for
many firms.

“Unsurprisingly, tariffs remain the primary source of
price pressures, whilst also leading to an intensification
of supply side delays. No wonder firms therefore
remained circumspect in their purchasing and inventory
management decisions during May, with the survey again
revealing declines in both input buying and stocks.”

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

People take way to long to make decisions, says Nell Wulfhart, a decision coach who’s helped more than 500 clients. Take three simple steps to speed things up.

Ukraine is now saying:

• Ukraine handed over to Russia delegation a list of deported children to be returned home.
• Ukraine and Russia are preparing a new exchange of prisoners of war.

Ukraine and Russia did meet for talks today. Those talks are now over. We could see more headlines from both Russia and Ukraine.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Markets will face a heavy load of high-impact economic data highlighed by the US and Canada jobs report on Friday, and central bank events next week. The Bank of Canada and European Central Bank are expected to cut rates next week.

Of course, the wild card will be trade news.. The week is starting with trade concerns with China. Are the Chinese withholding some key materials that will impact the US supply chain? Pres. Trump is expected to make a call to China’s Xi.

Monday, June 2

• 10:00am (US) – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 49.3 | Prior: 48.7)

• 1:00pm (US) – Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Tuesday, June 3

• 2:30am (CHF) – CPI m/m (Forecast: 0.2% | Prior: 0.0%)

• TBD (JPY) – BOJ Governor Ueda Speaks

• 10:00am (US) – JOLTS Job Openings (Prior: 7.19M)

• 9:30pm (AUD) – GDP q/q (Forecast: 0.4% | Prior: 0.6%)

Wednesday, June 4

• 8:15am (US) – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Forecast: 110K | Prior: 62K)

• 9:45am (CAD) – Bank of Canada Rate Statement

• 9:45am (CAD) – Overnight Rate Decision (Forecast: 2.50% | Prior: 2.75%)

• 10:00am (US) – ISM Services PMI (Forecast: 52.0 | Prior: 51.6)

• 10:30am (CAD) – BoC Press Conference

Thursday, June 5

• 8:15am (EUR) – ECB Main Refinancing Rate (Forecast: 2.15% | Prior: 2.40%)

• 8:15am (EUR) – ECB Monetary Policy Statement

• 8:30am (US) – Weekly Unemployment Claims (Forecast: 232K | Prior: 240K)

• 8:45am (EUR) – ECB Press Conference

Friday, June 6

• 8:30am (CAD) – Employment Change (Forecast: 7.4K)

• 8:30am (CAD) – Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 6.9%)

• 8:30am (US) – Average Hourly Earnings m/m (Forecast: 0.3% | Prior: 0.2%)

• 8:30am (US) – Non-Farm Payrolls (Forecast: 130K | Prior: 177K)

• 8:30am (US) – Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 4.2%)

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.