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In an interview with Fox Business New York Fed President John Williams said monetary policy is “well positioned”. “I don’t see any need to change the setting of the fed funds rate anytime soon,” he added. He expected US growth to dip below 1% this year, accompanied by a rise in the unemployment rate to […]

The post Fed’s Williams: No urgency for rate change, expects sub-1% growth without recession appeared first on Action Forex.

The New York Times was out late yesterday with a report relevant to the Middle East and oil traders:

• Israeli officials had recently developed plans to attack Iranian nuclear sites in May to set back Iran’s nuclear program by a year.
• Trump made clear to Netanyahu that he would not provide American support for an Israeli attack in May while the negotiations were playing out
• Netanyahu initially pushed for an option that would have combined airstrikes with commando raids
• Gabbard argued the buildup of American weaponry could potentially spark a wider conflict with Iran that the United States did not want

There are reports of a larger buildup of American navy assets in the Arabian sea, though the target is purportedly the Houthis in Yemen.

I take this report as a sign that nothing is imminent, though the latest reports on negotiations aren’t as good as they were coming out of the weekend. Also note that the targets here all appear to be nuclear, not energy more broadly or oil.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This week turned out to be relatively quiet for the dollar. The dip at the end of last week was replaced by hovering near the bottom, i.e. around the 99 level on DXY, which corresponds to the lows of the last three years and slightly below the reversal area of the last two years. This […]

The post Dollar at the Bottom: Tariffs Ruin ‘Exorbitant Privilege’ appeared first on Action Forex.

The Bank of Canada leaving policy on hold on Wednesday provided a minor boost for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) but the pair has nudged a little higher again this morning, reflecting minor gains in the US Dollar (USD), leaving funds trading more or less bang on our fair value estimate (1.3881), Scotiaba

Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering Thursday’s American session flat against the US Dollar (USD) with relative gains against all of the G-10 currencies with the exception of Swedish Krona (SEK) and Norwegian Krone (NOK), Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The major indices are opening up mixed with the Dow industrial average down sharply while the NASDAQ and S&P index are rebounding after yesterday’s declines.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) reported Q1 earnings that missed expectations, with EPS of $7.20 vs. $7.37 expected, and revenue of $109.6 billion vs. $111.55 billion expected. The company also cut its full-year EPS guidance to $26–26.50, down from a prior range of $29.50–30.00. The disappointing results were driven by revenue pressure from ongoing Medicare funding reductions and a shift in member mix, along with higher utilization of senior care services.

The outlook was further downgraded due to unexpectedly high care activity within UnitedHealthcare’s Medicare Advantage business, especially in physician and outpatient services. Additionally, changes in the profile of Optum Health members and low 2024 engagement with reimbursement plans contributed to concerns for 2025 projections.

UNH is trading down close to 18% and contributing largely to the Dow industrial average decline of nearly 500 points.

Taking a snapshot of the market currently shows:

• Dow industrial average is trading down -517 points or -1.30% at 39155
• S&P index is trading up 10.02 points or 0.19% at 5285.
• NASDAQ index up 12 points or 0.08% at 16318

TSMC reported a strong Q1 with net profit of TWD 361.6 billion (beating expectations of TWD 354.6 billion), operating profit at TWD 407.1 billion, and revenue at TWD 839.3 billion, sharply higher than the TWD 592.6 billion from a year ago. Capital expenditure rose significantly to TWD 10.06 billion, up from TWD 5.77 billion.

For Q2, TSMC expects revenue between USD 28.4–29.2 billion (above consensus), with gross margins projected at 57–59% and operating margins at 47–49%. Despite rising concerns around U.S. tariffs, the company noted no change in customer behavior and reaffirmed its forecasts.

TSMC highlighted robust AI-related demand, with revenue from AI expected to double in 2025. It’s aggressively expanding capacity, particularly in Arizona, to meet strong U.S. customer needs—including Apple. The company is advancing its CoWoS packaging capacity, expects 2nm production in Arizona, and remains on track with its N2 volume rollout in H2 2025. TSMC also dismissed any joint venture talks and continues to scale its U.S. operations, noting the need for over 1,000 engineers at its R&D center.

Guidance for 2025 remains unchanged, with capex at USD 38–42 billion, and revenue forecasted to grow by mid-20% in USD terms. CoWoS supply and demand are expected to become more balanced in 2026.

Share shares of TSMC are up 2.95%.

Nvidia shares are still lower at -1.34% after declining closed 7% yesterday.

Amazon shares are down one dollar or -0.52% at $173.40. Alphabet shares are up 0.33%. Microsoft are up 0.20%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.25; (P) 142.30; (R1) 142.95; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Current fall from 158.86 should extend to 139.57 support. On the upside, above 144.07 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But overall outlook will stay bearish as long as 151.20 resistance holds. […]

The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

The EUR/JPY pair gives up its entire intraday gains and ticks lower to near 161.50 during North American trading hours on Thursday. The pair faces a sharp sell-off as the Euro (EUR) underperforms after the monetary policy announcement by the European Central Bank (ECB).