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The EURUSD continues to find solid support in the 1.1663 to 1.1691 zone, a key technical floor that dates back to April–November 2021. The pair has repeatedly tested this area this week, with buyers stepping in on each dip, reinforcing its significance. A break below this support zone would be needed to shift the short-term bias more clearly to the downside.
On the upside, the pair has pushed back toward the 100-hour moving average (blue line, currently near 1.1713), but sellers have leaned against that level, capping momentum and keeping the price confined. The 200-hour moving average, now near 1.1745, adds another layer of resistance. For now, price action remains trapped between well-defined boundaries—support below and key moving average resistance above.
A break below support would open the door to further downside targets, including the 1.1614–1.1629 swing area, followed by the 1.1568–1.1578 zone, and then the 38.2% retracement of the May-to-July move at 1.15357.
Conversely, if buyers can push the price above both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, it would shift the bias back in their favor, with the pair then targeting the upper extreme for the year, capped most recently at 1.1827.
Until we see a decisive break above resistance or below support, traders should expect more rangebound trading within this well-established technical zone.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The unemployment rate tells the story in Canada as it’s risen steadily from 4.8% in July 2022. Excluding the pandemic, it was at the highest since 2016 but ticked lower in this report despite the rising participation rate.
USD/CAD was trading at 1.3689 ahead of this report and has taken the news of Trump’s tariffs with minimal disturbance, clearly betting that it’s a bluff. On these headlines, USD/CAD fell to 1.3673 and has now continued to 1.3652 to erase the Trump tariff move.
As for the Bank of Canada, this is going to move them more-firmly to the sidelines. The market is now pricing in just 23 bps in easing this year.
Note that Canadian jobs data is fairly volatile so it’s tough to draw the conclusion that the economy is actually improving. But jobs gains were broad regionally and led by wholesale/retail trade up 34K and healthcare up 17K. Demographically, core-aged men were up 62K.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
The market isn’t taking the risk of Canadian tariff seriously. The loonie is down 0.3% today and Canada’s TSX Composite stock index is down 0.45%.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
The USDCAD spiked higher on the tariff news at the start of the day (see the spike higher on the 5-minute chart above). However, the USDCAD moved lower following stronger-than-expected Canadian jobs data. Buyers stepped in at earlier lows in the Asian session, but quickly found its footing as buyers emerged.
Technically, the pair dipped below the 100-hour moving average at 1.3675 on the decline, found support near the earlier session low. That bounce led initially to a retest of the 100-hour MA. However,, after breaking back above, sellers flipped to buyers. A second test of support on the 5-minute chart once again attracted demand, reinforcing bullish sentiment and giving buyers the confidence to push higher (see the hourly moving average overlay on the five minute chart above)
The price has now rebounded back to levels seen just before the data release, setting up a critical test. A move above 1.3700 and sustained trading above that level would open the door for further upside momentum. The next key target is the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the May high, which comes in at 1.37208. Notably, the high earlier today briefly spiked above that level following headlines about Canadian tariffs of 35%. A break and hold above 1.37208 would strengthen the bullish bias and signal a potential shift toward broader upside for USDCAD.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
I don’t think the comments from Jamie Dimon yesterday got enough attention.
That might just be an artifact of quiet summer markets but he said the market was underpricing the risk of rising US interest rates.
Dimon
said his view of the possibility of a further rate increase was “higher
than anybody else”. “The market is pricing a 20% chance. I would price
in a 40-50% chance,” the biggest U.S. bank’s top boss told an event at
Ireland’s foreign ministry.
“I would put that as a cause for concern.”
Dimon cited tariffs, immigration and the huge US budget deficit all as possible triggers for inflation. I would add rising stock markets to that.
Another notable comment from him was that he said real-time US economic data at the moment was “totally impossible to read” which is a line I can sympathize with.
As for the FX market, rising yields have underpinned a bounce in the US dollar so far in July — particularly USD/JPY. Keep an eye on 3.92% in 2s and the weekly high of 4.97% on 10s. I’d imagine we could see some angst spill over into equities on a break of 5% but I’d need to see 5.20% to truly get concerned, especially in the summer.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.