News

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. And as a reminder, the Easter break coming tomorrow also dampens any interest on this towards the end of the week. Trading sentiment will continue to rely on the same drivers as it has been since last week i.e. broader market mood and headline risks. For today, there is a slight bounce in risk and that’s helping the dollar out a little ahead of European trading.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

While Trump may have hailed “big progress” in talks with Japan yesterday, the tone struck by Ryosei Akazawa wasn’t as optimistic. Japan’s economy minister is the one tasked to lead trade talks and the most he said was that “for our part, we want to do it (make a deal) as soon as possible”. But perhaps the more important detail is this comment:

“We will work to schedule the next consultation to be held within this month. And then, we will continue to hold discussions at the working level in addition to the ministerial level.”

There weren’t much details as to what was discussed, besides the fact that it seemed to not include foreign exchange policy at least.

But the above remark on what’s going to happen next is not very encouraging I would say. Yes, there’s a clear step-by-step process laid out. However, where’s the sense of urgency?

They’ll be speaking again later this month and then after, there will need to be further discussions at the working and ministerial levels. That could drag on for weeks on end. And mind you, this was supposed to be one of the easiest battles to resolve in the tariffs war.

I reckon they might get moving quicker when we move closer to the deadline on the 90-day tariffs pause. But for now, it pretty much sets the tone for everyone else. There are no easy deals.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda on what would make him hike rates rapidly
• The weaker yen today – U.S./Japan tariff talks steering clear of FX concerns cited
• RBNZ’s own preferred inflation model 2.9% for Q1 2025 (prior was 3.1% y/y in Q4 2024)
• Trump will meet with Italy’s PM Meloni on Thursday, April 17
• China to announce expansion plan for its service sector at a briefing on Monday (April 21)
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand Assistant Governor Simone Robbers resigns
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says can’t tell right now how tariffs will impact prices
• Trump says brought up military in discussions with Japan (Japan media report)
• BoJ’s Nakagawa says if economic and inflation targets hit, will continue to raise rates
• Australia March 2025 unemployment rate 4.1% (vs. 4.2% expected) & Employment Change +32.2K
• China: If United States continues to play tariff numbers game, China will pay no attention
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2085 (vs. estimate at 7.3083)
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says Japan’s real interest rate remains very low
• Japan PM Ishiba says talks with the US were constructive
• The Bank of Korea leaves its base rate unchanged at 2.75%, as widely expected
• Singapore March NODX +5.4% y/y (expected +14.1%
• Japan economy minister Akazawa says agreed to hold a 2nd meeting with US this month
• Japan March exports +3.9% y/y (expected +4.5%)
• Fed’s Schmid says agricutural sector very nervous about tariffs
• Deutsche Bank ECB preview: Rate cut expected as downside risks build
• More than 70% of Japanese firms are considering price hikes this fiscal year
• New Zealand Q1 CPI +2.5% y/y (expected +2.3%) & +0.9% q/q (expected +0.7%)
• Here’s a Deutsche Bank forecast for EUR/USD to 1.25 (admittedly it’ll take a few years)
• Ford warns that vehicle prices could rise on models produced from May due to Trump tariffs
• Trump says he met with the Japanese delegation on trade
• Goldman Sachs: Strong Asia session gold buying for 8 straight days; 4,500/oz a tail risk
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 16 Apr: Fed Powell does not give in to easing hopes
• What United Airlines said about the strength of the US consumer
• Powell downplayed risk to Fed independence from Trump firings case
• Financial Times reports that Intel will need license to export AI chips to Chinese clients
• US stocks close lower but rally modestly into the close
• Trade ideas thread – Thursday 17 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Plenty to digest from Japan today. Trade data showed exports rose for a sixth consecutive month in March, but the pace of growth slowed markedly. Exports to the U.S. rose just 3.1% year-on-year, down sharply from a 10.5% gain in February. Exports to China fell 4.8%, and shipments to Europe declined 1.1%, adding to worries that Japan’s external sector may struggle in the months ahead. Economists warn that the temporary boost from pre-tariff demand could now give way to a more sustained slowdown.

Meanwhile, the yen weakened after Japan’s Trade Minister Akazawa confirmed that foreign exchange policy was not discussed during the latest round of US-Japan trade talks. His remarks helped ease market fears that Japan’s currency practices would come under fresh scrutiny from the Trump administration. US officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, also participated in the meeting, with Trump reportedly reiterating that a deal with Japan remains a “top priority.” Trump weighed in with his concerns on militry costs. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba struck a cautious tone in his news cnfernce addressing the talks, warning that negotiations ahead would not be easy.

The cautious backdrop was reinforced by comments from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda and policy board member Nakagawa, who maintained that while further interest rate hikes remain likely if the economy and prices evolve in line with the Bank’s outlook, both highlighted U.S. trade policy as one of the biggest external risks to Japan’s recovery.

Elsewhere in the region, New Zealand reported stronger-than-expected consumer price growth in Q1. Core and trimmed mean inflation measures, though, continued edging down to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 2% target.

In Australia, the March jobs report delivered a partial rebound in employment following a soft February, though the gain fell short of expectations. February’s decline was revised lower. This data point shouldn’t dissuade the RBA from a rate cut at its May 19-20 meeting.

Apart from the yen losing ground, so too did other FX against the dollar. EUR/USD heads towards the European Central Bank rate cut decision later back under 1.1400.

Equities in China steadied. Auhtorities there will be announcing a plan for the country’s services sector on Monday.

To all who are taking a break for Easter, have a great time. To all for who Easter is more than just a break, have a great celebration.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.