News

• Prior was -316.0B
• Last June was -69B
• Outlays $499 billion
• Receipts $526 billion
• Customs duties $27 billion

This is a pleasant surprise but comes after a huge deficit month. It’s always tough to draw trends from individual months because holidays and two-week pay periods shift around.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

MUFG notes that Q1 2025 COFER data revealed large reserve manager selling of the Japanese yen and Australian dollar, while Swiss franc holdings surged. Despite some caution on the euro, a recent OMFIF survey points to improving sentiment that could support EUR demand.

Key Points:

• USD Holdings Steady: The global USD share of FX reserves stayed almost unchanged in Q1, showing the dollar’s resilience in reserve portfolios.

• JPY & AUD Heavy Selling: Reserve managers sharply cut JPY and AUD holdings, highlighting ongoing structural outflows from these currencies.

• CHF Gains: There was a striking increase in Swiss franc holdings, showing its continued appeal as a reserve haven amid geopolitical risks.

• EUR Outlook Mixed: The OMFIF Global Public Investor Survey indicates reserve managers remain cautious on the EUR for now, but sentiment is shifting positively, suggesting more inflows could come.

Conclusion:

While reserve managers held their USD allocations steady in Q1, they aggressively sold JPY and AUD and sharply increased CHF holdings. Signs of improving EUR sentiment may help support the euro’s share in reserves going forward.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The NZDUSD started the week under pressure, with the move lower beginning near the 200-hour moving average, which sat at 0.6061 at the time. Monday’s high reached 0.6058, but sellers leaned against that level, triggering a move to the downside. The decline extended into Tuesday and Wednesday, with the pair breaking below the 50% retracement of the May low-to-June high rally, which comes in at 0.5982. While the pair traded below that key level on three separate occasions, including a Wednesday low of 0.5975, it failed to build sustained momentum below the midpoint.

A rebound began midweek, with the price climbing to a high of 0.6042 early in Friday’s Asian session—once again just shy of the now-lower 200-hour moving average at 0.6044. Interestingly, the week began and ended with sellers leaning against the 200-hour MA, increasing the technical importance of that level heading into next week. Keep that moving average in mind into next week’s trading.

The latest leg lower today initially found support near the 100-hour moving average at 0.6006 (blue line), but over the past several hours, the pair has been hovering above and below that level, signaling a market in pause mode as it digests recent moves.

Heading into next week, the 100-hour MA will serve as the near-term barometer for bias. A bounce off the 100-hour MA could refocus attention on the 200-hour MA as key resistance near 0.6036–0.6044. On the flip side, a move below the 100-hour MA with momentum opens the door back toward 0.5982 (50% retracement) and 0.5975 (weekly low).

While sellers held the upper hand this week, especially with the pair spending most of the time below the 200-hour MA, buyers showed resolve at the 50% level. With price now caught in between, the battle lines are drawn at the moving averages. Traders will be watching for a break to determine the next directional push.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.