News

The producer price index was expected to increase 0.3% in September, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) in line with expectations (1.4%) in September

Gold (XAU/USD) holds firm on Tuesday as traders price a greater likelihood of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in December following dovish-leaning remarks from policymakers.

The USD fell after the data don’t at 8:30 AM ET which showed expected/slightly lower PPI and lower retail sales with the control group falling -0.1% (versus 0.3% expected). The control group does feed into US GDP data.

The EURUSD moved higher with the price peaking at 1.1561. That was just short of the 200 hour moving average at 1.1566 and 38.2% retracement of the move down from the October high to the November low near the same level (at 1.1567). The price is back down near a swing area between 1.1541 1.1546

The GBPUSD moved to new highs for the day reaching 1.3159. That took the price above a swing area between 1.31329 to 1.3143. The 200 hour MA comes in at 1.31222. The high price targets remain focused on the 38.2% of the move down from the October 17 high. That level comes in 1.31855 and will need to be broken to increase the bulish bias.

The USDJPY moved to a new low and moved closer to its 38.2% of the move up from the November low . That retracement is near the rising 200 hour MA. Both come in at 155.94 area. The low reached 156.04 within about 10 pips of that key support.

Looking at the US stocks:

• Dow is up 45 points
• S&P is unchanged.
• Nasdaq is down -36 points

The focus is this morning is also on the chips stocks and there is mixed winners and losers:

• Nvidia, -4.69%
• AMD -6.65%
• Micron, -1.85%
• Broadcom +3.53%

Google shares are up 3.86%. Microsoft shares are down -0.62%.

Looking at the US yield curve

• 2-year yield 3.485%:, -0.5 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.591%, -1.4 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.015%, -2.1 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.653%, -2.4 basis points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The investment world is “expecting far more economic importance out of this technology than is likely to be provided,” Burry’s associate portfolio manager said.

United States Redbook Index (YoY) dipped from previous 6.1% to 5.9% in November 21

Nvidia’s earnings report didn’t disappoint, beating analysts’ expectations. New York Fed President John Williams suggested there’s still room for a rate cut in the near term and flagged rising risks for the labor market, pushing expectations for a December rate cut higher (now above 75%).

Still, neither of these factors managed to lift investor sentiment, and major U.S. indexes, including the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow Jones, closed in the red. Concerns about a potential AI bubble, combined with the fact that the reverse repo facility has essentially been drained, outweigh the positives.

What could restore optimism to the markets?

On the geopolitical front, one of the key news stories this week will be the possible agreement to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Initially, Trump gave Kiev until November 27 to accept the deal, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified that this deadline is not set in stone and could be postponed.

As for the chances of success, the 28-point proposal, reportedly drafted in secret with Moscow and presented to Ukraine, contains red lines that Kiev refuses to accept: recognition of the occupied territories as part of Russia, restrictions on its armed forces, and limits on alliances. Without these concessions, Russia will not sign.

If progress is made, it could boost risk assets while weighing on gold and oil prices.

Another key factor to watch is the reverse repo facility, which is nearing zero, signaling that excess liquidity is dwindling. At the same time, repo usage is rising as banks rely more on daily funding from the Fed. If the reverse repo cushion disappears entirely, the Fed may need to rethink its QT plans to prevent systemic risks.

On the macro side, retail sales for September and September’s PPI will be released on Tuesday, the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday, and weekly jobless claims on Thursday. Even though some of these indicators are lagging, they will still help clarify what’s happening in the U.S. economy and provide insight into the Fed’s next moves.

Overall, even though the week will be short due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., there should still be plenty of events to watch, as they could have a significant impact on market sentiment. It may also be helpful to track Bitcoin price movements and the Russell 2000 to gauge the risk-on level.

This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

US PPI rose 0.3% mom and 2.7% yoy in September, matching expectations. The entire monthly advance came from goods, where prices jumped 0.9%, while services were flat. PPI final demand less food, energy, and trade—edged up just 0.1% mom after a firmer 0.3% mom reading in August. On a 12-month basis, core rose 2.9%. Full […]

The post US PPI rises 0.3% mom in September, core pressure eases appeared first on Action Forex.

Bidder dynamics in October saw the second-highest monthly gain over the past year, according to JLL’s Global Bid Intensity Index.

US retail sales rose 0.2% mom to USD 733.3B in September, falling short of the 0.4% forecast. Ex-auto sales performed slightly better at 0.3% mom, in line with expectations. Ex-gasoline sales were flat. On a longer view, sales for the July–September period were still up 4.5% yoy, indicating that overall demand remains broadly supported. Full […]

The post US retail sales miss at 0.2% mom growth in September appeared first on Action Forex.