News

Speech by Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser

• Topic is On the Rails or Off to the Races? The Outlook for the Australian Economy
• venue is the UBS Australasia Conference, Sydney

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At its previous meeting the Bank expressed a less dovish view, slashing marekt forecasts for rate cuts any time soon. Inflation remains sticky high.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The recent optimism for a yen rebound is fading fast as major banks downgrade their forecasts and investors scale back expectations for an early Bank of Japan rate hike, with fiscal concerns under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi adding fresh downward pressure on the currency.

Japanese media, the Nikkei, runs the report this morning, Tokyo time. In brief:

• JPMorgan Chase cut its year-end forecast for the yen to 156 per dollar from 142, and now sees 152 by March 2026 instead of 139.
• MUFG Bank and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. made similar downward revisions, signalling broad skepticism that the BOJ will tighten policy anytime soon.

At its most recent meeting, the BOJ left interest rates unchanged

• Governor Kazuo Ueda said the bank needed more time and data before deciding on rate hikes, prompting traders to interpret his stance as cautious.
• “It’s not a stage to proactively buy yen,” said Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at SMBC, adding that there was “no groundwork” for an early move.
• Market pricing implies only a 57% chance of a rate hike in December.
• Analysts note that monetary policy expectations have become less influential than politics and fiscal signals.

Concerns are growing over Takaichi’s plans for “responsible and proactive” fiscal spending, with investors wary that a large supplementary budget could further weaken the yen.

MUFG’s Teppei Ino said the market will likely remain under selling pressure until the scale of the new stimulus is revealed. The government is expected to finalise its extra budget later this month.

Adding to the uncertainty, new members appointed to the Economic and Fiscal Policy Council come from Japan’s reflationist camp, reinforcing the view that Tokyo may tolerate a weaker currency.

JPMorgan’s Junya Tanase noted that “the selling reaction to Takaichi’s policies has been stronger than expected.”

While some strategists, including Citigroup’s Osamu Takashima, expect eventual yen buying as part of profit-taking in Japanese equities, most see limited support in the near term.

Markets are now watching an upcoming speech by BOJ policy board member Junko Nakagawa on November 10 for fresh clues on the central bank’s policy path.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

You note the Chinese inflation data was published over the weekend, post is here ICYMI:

• China October inflation data: CPI 0.2% y/y (expected 0%), PPI -2.1% y/y (expected -2.2%)

The highlight of the event calendar today in Asia-Pacific is the Bank of Japan ‘Summary of Opinions’ from the October meeting.

From the day:

• Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, as expected
• JPY has dropped after the Bank of Japan expected ‘on hold’ decision, Nikkei up
• BOJ governor Ueda: Easy monetary conditions will continue to support the economy
• BOJ governor Ueda: No preset ideas about timing of next rate hike
• BOJ governor Ueda: We need more data in deciding to adjust degree of monetary easing
• BOJ governor Ueda: Want to see early momentum of spring wage negotiations

Don’t want to read that lot? Here is TD’s take on the decision and Ueda, seems a reasonable one:

• The BoJ’s hold and Ueda’s cautious remarks weakened the yen, but TD Securities said a December move remains on the table as wage data and fiscal coordination evolve.

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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) releases a “Summary of Opinions” after each monetary policy meeting. It serves as a record of the discussion and views of the Policy Board members on various economic and financial issues.

Key points about the Summary:

• The summary includes the views of the Policy Board members on economic conditions, both domestically and globally. This includes assessments of economic growth, inflation, and employment trends, among other indicators.
• The summary also outlines the Policy Board members’ views on the effectiveness of the BOJ’s current monetary policy measures, including interest rate policy, asset purchases, and yield curve control. Members may discuss the pros and cons of these policies and their potential impact on the economy.
• The summary includes discussions on the outlook for monetary policy and the potential risks to the economy. Board members may express their views on the appropriate timing and direction of future policy changes, as well as the potential impact of external factors such as global economic conditions.
• The summary also includes any dissenting views among the Policy Board members. If a member disagrees with the majority view on a particular issue, they may express their own opinion and rationale.

In a few week’s time we’ll get the Minutes of this meeting. The Minutes are a more detailed record of the discussions and decisions made during the meeting.

• The Minutes include a more complete record of the views expressed, including any dissents or alternative opinions that may not be included in the summary.
• The Summary of Opinions is typically released a few days after the policy meeting, while the Minutes are published about a month later. This means that the Summary of Opinions can provide more up-to-date information on the BOJ’s current stance and view on the economy and monetary policy.
• The Summary of Opinions is usually written in a more accessible language, making it easier to understand the BOJ’s views on monetary policy.
• The Minutes, on the other hand, are often more technical and may require a deeper understanding of economics and financial markets.
• The Summary of Opinions is typically shorter than the Minutes.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in October from a year ago after arriving at a fall of 0.3% in September, the National Bureau of Statistics of China reported on Sunday. The market consensus was for 0% in the reported period.

U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has warned that air travel disruptions will deepen in the coming days as the country faces a third consecutive day of federally mandated flight reductions amid the ongoing government shutdown.

Duffy spoke in an interview with CNN’s State of the Union

• “It’s only going to get worse,”
• flight capacity could shrink to a “trickle” in the two weeks leading up to Thanksgiving
• a “substantial number” of Americans could miss holiday travel plans as a result
• on Saturday alone, there were 81 “staffing triggers”, incidents where flight operations were curtailed due to staffing shortages

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The background to this chaos is the government shutdown. As essential workers, controllers are required to work during a shutdown but without pay. This has led to widespread absenteeism, many controllers are seeking gig economy work to put food on the table, and operational strain.

• The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) introduced the cuts on Friday, affecting 40 major airports nationwide, in response to worsening air traffic controller shortages.
• By Sunday morning, more than 4,200 flights had been delayed and 1,520 cancelled, with Duffy warning tha
• The FAA expects the flight reductions to escalate over the week: capacity will drop 4% this weekend, 6% by Tuesday, 8% by Thursday, and up to 10% by Friday.

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Flight disruptions threaten to dent consumer spending and tourism activity heading into the U.S. holiday season. Extended shutdown-related travel chaos could ripple through airlines, hospitality, and retail sectors, adding short-term pressure to service-driven GDP growth.

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If you are in the US and planning a Thanksgiving flight, have back up plans in place would be my advice.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams has warned that growing financial strain on lower- and middle-income Americans could undermine the broader U.S. economy’s resilience, even as wealthier households benefit from a booming stock market.

Williams spoke in an interview with the Financial Times, link here for transcript (gated) .

• said the Fed’s December policy meeting would be “a balancing act”
• officials will weigh persistent inflation, its high and not showing signs of coming down at present, against an economy that remains resilient.
• cautioned that many Americans are struggling with rising housing and living costs
• such pressures risk weighing on consumer confidence and spending

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs says U.S. investors are ramping up their exposure to Japanese equities, chasing the country’s standout returns and its growing focus on technology and artificial intelligence.

The report on the note is via Bloomberg.

Bruce Kirk, Goldman’s chief Japan equity strategist, said inflows from the U.S. are now accelerating at the fastest pace since the Abenomics era

• active participation by U.S. investors is the highest since October 2022
• Goldman Sachs is fielding an increasing number of meeting requests from U.S. clients.
• rising participation of U.S. funds could mark a turning point, as foreign investors shift toward growth and technology shares after years of value-stock dominance
• Tokyo’s pro-investor reforms and the government’s corporate-governance drive have supported
• global investors’ holdings of Japanese equities remain light compared with the peak Abenomics period, suggesting room for further buying

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The surge reflects Japan’s strong performance in dollar terms. The Nikkei 225 has jumped about 30% this year, far ahead of the S&P 500’s 14% gain, helped by a firmer yen and investor optimism over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus economic stance.

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Renewed U.S. inflows into Japan could support the Nikkei’s outperformance and reinforce global risk appetite. The shift toward Japanese tech and AI shares also suggests investors are diversifying away from U.S. megacaps, potentially broadening global equity leadership.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Senators returned to Capitol Hill for an unusual Sunday session as efforts intensified to bring an end to the 40-day government shutdown. While no formal votes were initially scheduled, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters that “we plan to vote today” on a funding proposal intended to reopen parts of the government.

The Senate released three draft spending bills covering Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration, the Legislative Branch, and Military Construction and Veterans Affairs. Combined, they account for about 10% of overall federal funding.

However, the proposed legislation leaves unresolved the central issue behind the shutdown — the lapse of Affordable Care Act Medicare subsidies. Republicans are expected to attach provisions addressing these subsidies to a short-term continuing resolution, in an effort to draw bipartisan backing and end the standoff that has shuttered portions of the federal government for over a month.

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The prolonged U.S. government shutdown continues to cloud fiscal outlooks, delaying data releases and threatening broader confidence in Washington’s ability to govern effectively. Investors are watching closely for signs of a bipartisan deal before further disruptions to federal payments and economic reporting.

The damage is ongoing, earlier:

• Bessent says shut down impact getting worse for economy, Hasset says recession possible

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

By Itai Levitan, Head of Strategy, investingLive.com

Michael Burry, the legendary investor known for “The Big Short,” has once again gone against the crowd. His latest target is Palantir Technologies (PLTR), one of the most talked-about and traded AI and data analytics stocks among retail investors.

According to the latest Q3 2025 13F filing, Burry’s fund, Scion Asset Management, disclosed put options representing about five million shares of Palantir. These filings give us a glimpse into his bearish stance, but not the exact timing or price levels of his trades. So, can we estimate where Burry might have entered, and whether his short position is currently profitable?

Let’s look at the charts and the clues.

Palantir’s price behavior during Burry’s Q3 short period

The yellow zone in the chart below represents Q3 2025, the period covered by the latest 13F. During that time, Palantir traded roughly between $129 and $190, with the midpoint around $156.

If we would look at one scenario (and not the most probable one, IMHO) that Burry built his short position gradually across that quarter, an average entry near of $156 would be the average entry price (again, I am not saying that this was the entry price, but looking at that one scenario). The stock just closed at almost $178, apx 14% higher than that theoratical entry price, so within that (less probable) scenario, Burry is quite deeply in the red.

However, sharp investor and traders like Burry would naturally have an earnings date in mind to consider as a key event, and there was one at the beginning of August. It is quite unlikely that an experienced trader would not want to gather more information from that earnings, and moreso, from the initial price reaction to the earnings. He may have intentionally dipped his feet in the water before that earnings release, but scaling up more seriously? Very likely that he would wait for more intel after Aug 04.

After the August 4 earnings, Palantir skyrocked over 18% within 6 trading days. Remember, all this is still within the yellow range and the quarter that we know, according to the 13F, when Michael took the short. When exactly and at what price? We do not know. But the midpoint of the green area, which is after that important earnings intel, has its midpoint at $164.15. This is the likely minimum price of the entry of that short.

Later came 27 Oct and the $190 high and key resistance that held for 76 days (53 trading days) was broken to the upside. Pressure for any short trader. On the next day it even faked as if is about to go down. $187-188 could be a reasonable price where even a pro like Burry would be scaling into that short, and happy to do so. But that was a bearish ‘fakie’ and in the next 4 days, Palantir rose over 9% to reach its All-time-high just before the next earnings announcement.

Michael seemd to have had enough of that crap. And he posted about it. Many of you have already seen that on X

Remeber, Burry was already short and price may have gone up even 15% against him at this stage. Minimum 9% against him, to give him a big discount. And before earnings, who know what would happen next? Who would not feel the pressure?

Michael Burry’s tone and psychology on earnings day

On that November 3, the same day Palantir closed at its all-time high, Michael Burry posted on X:

“These aren’t the charts you are looking for. You can go about your business.”

The tone was calm but clearly sarcastic. It hinted that he viewed the ongoing rally as excessive, perhaps detached from fundamentals.

For any short trader sitting on a position while a stock continues to rise, that kind of post can be seen as a release of tension. Psychologically, it’s a way to reaffirm conviction without showing frustration. The timing of his post was striking, just hours before Palantir reported its earnings after the market closed. Whether intentional or not, it turned out to be a perfectly timed warning: after that tweet, PLTR dropped around 18.5 percent to the low of $168.91 by the end of last week.

So while the early part of his short may have been painful and too early, anyone who added or doubled down near that all-time high (which we have no idea if he did or not) could have turned a tough position into a profitable one within days.

Could Burry be profitable right now?

Let’s consider a few scenarios:

• If Burry shorted in Q3 but after the important August earnings (midpoint near $164)
  As of November 8, the stock closed at $177.93. That would still be quite negative for that short position.

• If his average entry price is around $180, just above the midpoint of period 3 in the above chart, which is a probably entry price considering he could have scaled in before the recent earnings, to average out a better entry price, then he may be even of just slightlly profitable. For now.

• If he added or entered near the highs before earnings ($200–$207) and taken partial profit, or just re-raised big then
  The post-earnings drop to $168–$170 would have delivered a clear short-term move of around 15%-18% (and a much bigger profit in % within the options play), on that last raise, and he’s probably nicely profitable.

Given his tendency to hold puts for roughly 45 to 90 days, it is entirely possible that his current positions have time to play out. In options trading, time has value, and waiting is part of the cost structure.

If he initiated positions in mid-September, as the chart suggests could be reasonable for a late-Q3 entry, he would still be within his normal trade window. The stock’s quick reversal after the November 3 top would likely give him some relief, if not early profit.

If we consider only the 13F filling and the Q3 period short, without additional scaling into the short at higher prices, then Burry may still be down, even though PLTR declined over 18% since its ATH to last Friday’s low. A reminder that entry prices matter. A lot. a good directional forecast, a great read, even a genuis read by a very experienced star, might, in some case, not be enough if your entry price is off. You were right about what is going to happen but not right about when it’s gonna happen. And you paid dearly for the time that passed.

Of course, this is by no means the end of it. Even if the above is right (we do not know) then Burry probably has more time to win. He’s actually pretty good at being too early and finding a way to still come out a winner. Even if in order to do that, he needs to pull out some additional moves to manage and optimize the position (For example, after Friday’s close, I think we have at least a local dip, and the stock is going to have a leg up till $183 minimum, I would be considering some optimzation till then).

Estimated Durations of Michael Burry’s Put Positions

Based on public filings, we can only estimate the duration of Michael Burry’s put options, since SEC Form 13F doesn’t disclose strikes, expiration dates, or trade timing. By tracking when his positions appear and disappear across quarterly reports, most of his big short trades seem to fit short-to-medium maturities of about 30 to 90 days, with a common cluster around 45 to 75 days. Occasionally, positions lasting across two quarters suggest 3 to 6 month horizons or rolled contracts. These patterns indicate that Burry typically trades options designed for tactical moves over weeks or a few months, not long-term bets, though actual timing can vary depending on volatility, catalysts, or conviction.

Lessons for traders and investors

There are a few takeaways from this case that every trader and investor can learn from:

1. Patience and timing matter.
   Even if you are right that something is over-priced, the market can stay exuberant longer than expected. Experienced traders know this. What they need to constantly work on is to synch this with their character. Some of us see things earlier than others but the market does not care about what we think. If you were right on the direct (up or down) but too early or too late, the market will punish you and your directional ‘right’.

2. Wait for exhaustion moves.
   In speculative stocks like Palantir, extreme/exaggerated surges often mark the best entry points for shorts. This means that we need to wait till we see the first sign of “let’s short” and hold ourselves hard. Then wait for the 2nd “now it must be a short” and hold ourselves harder. Finally wait for the 3rd and most ridiculous spot, on the verge of pissed-off feeling, perhaps even with a technical ‘blow off top’ or that yet another exaggerated move within 4 days, up 9% before the earnings, after being too frothy the previous two times we waited in suffering, and then finally pull the trigger, and with more ammunition this time.

   Shoot hard on the 3rd, wait out on the 1st and 2nd. Easier said than done but on retail darlings, that can work quite well if you can stomach that.

3. Partial profit-taking is a smart strategy.
   Okay, PLTR crashed over 18% since its high. It does not mean that it won’t retrace back up against you. Do you hang on now without doing anything? Or take partial profit, possibly re-entering at potential higher post-retracement prices? I guess that may be a matter of style and who am I to be suggesting to legendary Michael Burry what to consider. But even on other occasions, some of you traders that follow the tradeCompass methodology, or the trade ideas on our Telegram channel know that taking partial profit is a critical part of my philosophy.

I actually respect Burry even if Palantir may have printed a local bottom on Friday.

In my opinion, Michael Burry’s trade against Palantir shows both intellectual conviction and emotional resilience. Whether or not he is currently in profit, his ability to stay calm and contrarian during hype-driven markets is part of what sets him apart.

Personally, I have great respect for Burry’s originality and courage. I may not always agree with his timing, but I admire how he challenges consensus thinking.

If you’re reading this, Michael, I’d be honored if you shared your thoughts. This analysis is written with genuine respect and curiosity, not criticism.

Never underestimate Michael Burry. The game clock is still ticking. For the rest of us, Burry’s latest trade is a powerful reminder that markets often reward those who think differently, but especially those who can do that with the right timing and possibly stay agile to manage the trade as reality unfolds.

Now please make my day and comment. Thanks.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The US economy is shrinking according to comments from these two senior Trump officials.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent:

• the impact of the government shut down on the economy is getting worse and worse
• expects prices to come down over the months ahead

(note, in a recession prices will tend to fall, or at least not rise so quickly, yes)

Trump key economic advisrer and candidate for Fed Chair Hasset:

• economic growth could be negative in the fourth quarter if the shut down drags on

(note, if negative economic growth persists for two quarters in a row that is the commonly accepted definition of an economic recession)

Bessent and Hassett are doing a couple of things here

• softening the public up for bad news on the economy in the months ahead
• seeking to blame others, not the administration they are key members of, for a possible recession in the US

For markets recessions are not good news, but the lower rates that usually result are tailwinds for risk assets.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.