News

Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM) fell from previous 1.7% to 0.1% in September

The big news since the weekend is that we might be seeing the potential end to the US government shutdown. The Senate moved to approve the first vote for that to happen here, which now throws the ball back over to the House’s court. As a reminder, it’s been 40 days that the US government has closed down – with this being the longest one on record.

As things stand, House members are now notified that votes related to government funding are expected in the lower chamber some time this week. That after the Senate gets the funding measure past the final passage. Senate members will reconvene again later today at 1600 GMT.

US futures are sitting higher as such, with S&P 500 futures now up 0.8%. I mentioned last week that pointing fingers to the shutdown as being a key driver for the drag in the risk mood is not something I’d be inclined to do, and the same goes for any buying on the end of the shutdown.

However, the pick up in risk appetite on Friday because of that and what we’re seeing today certainly argues for it. But I would say, it’s more to do perhaps with alleviating funding/liquidity stress in markets. So in some convoluted way, the shutdown does matter – at least because of how long it has ran.

In other markets, the dollar is mixed with USD/JPY holding higher near 154.00 but perhaps owes to a weaker yen mostly. Japanese prime minister Takaichi continues to spread her wings as the big fiscal dove she is and that is weighing on the currency. Besides that, the aussie is leading amid risk gains with AUD/USD up 0.5% to back above 0.6520.

Meanwhile, we’re also seeing Bitcoin recover in surviving yet another test of the $100,000 mark to be up above $106,000 today. So, that’s another risk positive sign.

And after a bit of consolidation, it seems like dip buyers in gold are coming back in again with price nudging up to $4,053 – its highest in two weeks. As risk appetite picks up, it seems like dip buyers are also feeling more free. That is definitely an interesting point to be wary of.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Japan Coincident Index: 114.6 (September) vs 112.8

Japan Coincident Index: 114.6 (September) vs 112.8

Japan Leading Economic Index came in at 108, above forecasts (107.9) in September

USD/JPY holds gains near an eight-month high of 154.49, which was recorded on November 4, trading around 153.90 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles amid the uncertain Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy outlook.

• China suspends special port fees on US ships for one year
• The US Senate has approved the first vote needed to reopen government, 60-40 vote
• BoJ’s Nakagawa says the Bank expects to continue raising rates as economy, prices improve
• Satellite images show China’s missile buildup accelerating since 2020, CNN reports
• US suspends investigation of China targeting of maritime, logistics, shipbuilding sectors
• Wingtech shares jump as Beijing, Netherlands signal easing of Nexperia export dispute
• Buffett to release farewell letter Monday preparing to step down as Berkshire Hathaway CEO
• China’s gold holdings surge as ETFs and central bank boost reserves despite weaker demand
• Japan PM Takaichi says not ruling out a sales tax cut … in the future
• Goldman Sachs raises 2026 China growth outlook to 4.8% on export strength, policy support
• Gold is surging higher, closing in on US$4050 again … nope, above there now
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0856 (vs. estimate at 7.1175)
• BOJ edges closer to rate hike as board signals rising confidence in wage momentum
• Media sources – There are enough votes in the US Senate to end the shutdown
• Japan PM Takaichi to examine new govt fiscal target for future that looks at fiscal state
• Goldman Sachs says AI boom resembles 1997 tech cycle, not dotcom peak, with room to run
• Shutdown end in sight as centrist Democrats back Senate stopgap deal to reopen government
• UK firms expect 3% pay rises but warn AI could shrink jobs, CIPD survey shows
• BoJ Summary of Oct meeting highlights the importance of wages to future rate hikes
• RBA’s Hauser says its not mad to think future rate cuts would be coming
• Japan’s Takaichi abandons annual budget target, takes softer fiscal consolidation stance
• RBA’s Hauser says getting inflation down will require policy to be restrictive
• Weekend – China suspends export ban on gallium, germanium and other critical metals to US
• JPY and Nikkei traders heads up – BOJ policy board member Nakagawa is speaking soon
• Some media reports of reopening the US government
• Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking soon – economic outlook
• Japan’s Nikkei: “Yen surge scenario fades as banks revise outlook downward”
• Duffy warns U.S. air travel will worsen before holidays as FAA cuts expand amid shutdown
• Williams says December Fed a balancing act: sticky high inflation vs. consumer stress
• Goldman Sachs sees U.S. investors piling into Japan as Nikkei outshines S&P 500
• Sunday session for US Senate as lawmakers seek band aid funding for 10% of government
• Famed Short Trader Michael Burry Bets Against Palantir. Is He Profitable?
• Bessent says shut down impact getting worse for economy, Hasset says recession possible
• Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 10 November 2025
• Newsquawk Week Ahead: China CPI and Activity Data, UK & Aussie Jobs, BoJ SOO
• China October inflation data: CPI 0.2% y/y (expected 0%), PPI -2.1% y/y (expected -2.2%)

U.S. shutdown end in sight

The U.S. government shutdown looks close to ending after the Senate voted 60–40 to advance a bill — a major breakthrough toward reopening federal operations. Eight Senate Democrats joined the Republican majority in backing the stopgap deal, which would fund the government through January 30 and resume payments to states.

Passage in the House now appears likely, even though key Democratic leaders have voiced opposition and conservative Republicans are pushing for a longer funding extension through September 30. Those objections appear largely theatrical, the economic and political damage seems to have reached a tipping point.

House members have been told to be ready to return to Washington with 36 hours’ notice, down from 48 hours previously, suggesting the reopening is being hurried along. The chamber has not been in session for over 50 days, since its last vote on September 19.

Bank of Japan edges closer to rate hike

The BOJ’s October Summary of Opinions showed policymakers edging toward another rate hike if inflation and wage trends hold. Several members said conditions for a move are “almost met,” while others urged patience until wage behaviour and global conditions stabilise.

Some warned against waiting too long, arguing the bank should move toward a neutral rate to avoid sharper action later. The tone reinforces a cautious but steady shift toward policy normalisation.

RBA’s Hauser signals limited scope for further rate cuts

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said Australia’s economy remains unusually tight, limiting scope for near-term easing. Demand is still above potential output, meaning restrictive settings are needed to bring inflation back to target.

The RBA kept its cash rate at 3.6% last week after three cuts earlier this year. Hauser said inflation is expected to stay above the 2–3% target band until at least mid-2026, adding that stronger productivity and new investment are needed to expand capacity and contain price pressures.

China suspends gallium export ban — further signs of easing U.S. tensions

China suspended export restrictions on gallium, germanium, and antimony, effectively ending a year-long ban on shipments to the U.S. The suspension, effective through November 2026, also pauses stricter checks on graphite exports. It follows similar easing of curbs on rare-earth and lithium materials, signalling a thaw in trade tensions and offering relief for semiconductor and defence supply chains.
Additional goodwill steps included Washington’s suspension of its investigation into China’s targeting of maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, and Beijing’s decision to suspend port fees on U.S.-linked vessels for a year.

China inflation and U.S. data

China’s October CPI turned positive while PPI inflation eased slightly — reinforcing signs of mild disinflation without renewed deflationary pressure.

In the U.S., the delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) tied to office properties surged to 11.8%, an all-time high. Delinquencies are now up 10 percentage points in just three years, highlighting ongoing stress in U.S. commercial real estate.

Market moves

FX markets opened with a yen gap weaker, pushing USD/JPY toward 154.00, as traders reacted to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s plan to drop Japan’s annual primary budget balance target in favour of a multi-year framework. The pro-spending stance, coupled with a new stimulus package, added to expectations of looser fiscal policy.

USD/CHF also firmed, though to a lesser extent.

Commodity currencies gained, with the AUD and CAD lifted by improving China-U.S. relations.

EUR/USD traded narrowly.

Gold surged above US$4,050, while optimism over the shutdown resolution and China-U.S. thaw boosted broader commodities.

Equities rallied, with U.S. index futures extending Friday’s gains, and Bitcoin along with other cryptocurrencies also moving higher.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) +1.15%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) +0.51%
• Shanghai
  Composite 0%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) +0.66%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China will suspend port fees levied on U.S.-linked vessels for a year, its transport ministry said on Monday.

Its been a steady drip-feed of news indicating better relations between the two countries.

• Weekend – China suspends export ban on gallium, germanium and other critical metals to US
• US suspends investigation of China targeting of maritime, logistics, shipbuilding sectors

The developments have been a tailwind for China and China-proxy trades, such as AUD.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The GBP/USD pair loses traction to near 1.3150, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Monday.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends gains for the second successive session, trading around $49.20 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. The upside of the Silver price could be restrained amid improving market sentiment as US Senate appeared on track to pass a deal to reopen the government.