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BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi said today that the central bank could resume interest rate hikes once U.S. tariff risks recede, but emphasized that any tightening must “measured, step-by-step”. He warned that maintaining very low real interest rates for too long risks undermining the economy by pushing Yen lower and stoking undesirable inflation. A weaker […]

The post Noguchi says BoJ can restart hikes gradually as Yen weakness turns problematic appeared first on Action Forex.

China is rapidly narrowing the space for foreign companies to trade with it, pursuing a model in which self-reliance overrides openness. As the FT argues, Beijing increasingly sees no imported product it cannot eventually redesign, produce more cheaply and control domestically. The country remains a major buyer of semiconductors, software, large commercial aircraft and advanced manufacturing equipment — but only temporarily.

China treats these purchases as a student absorbs training: essential for now, but merely a stepping stone. Its industrial policy is geared toward replacing foreign suppliers in every strategic sector, and ultimately exporting these same technologies abroad. The message for global manufacturers is blunt: China may still be a huge customer today, but it is working relentlessly to ensure it will no longer need them tomorrow.

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The narrative underscores long-term competitive pressure on global tech, aerospace and industrial-equipment exporters, heightening concerns around market access, supply-chain decoupling and strategic overdependence on China.

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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fitch Ratings warned that Japan’s new stimulus package could add fiscal risks if it leads to a sustained loosening of policy and pushes government debt higher. While the package is large — roughly 3.4% of GDP — Fitch said its true fiscal impact is unclear because some measures are non-fiscal, spread over multiple years, or face implementation risk.

Fitch noted Japan still has rating headroom after recent stronger fiscal performance, but stressed that persistently higher spending or rising real interest rates could threaten the country’s A/Stable rating. The agency continues to expect debt/GDP to decline gradually in coming years, but reiterated that Japan’s exceptionally high debt and weak medium-term growth remain major vulnerabilities.

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The Fitch caution may moderate JGB bullishness and raises focus on Japan’s debt path and policy mix, though the agency’s tone remains measured rather than overtly negative.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Thursday and stalls its modest pullback from a one-week top, touched against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) the previous day.

The Bank of Japan’s dovish board member Asahi Noguchi declined to reinforce growing market speculation over a December rate hike, instead taking a neutral stance and underscoring the importance of adjusting policy only at the right time.

Earlier post, recapping now:

• BoJ’s Noguchi: Policy easing to fade only if wage gains sustain inflation momentum

While acknowledging the BoJ can resume raising rates now that the risks from U.S. tariffs are fading, he argued any tightening must be done “in a measured, step-by-step manner.”

Noguchi warned that keeping real rates too low for too long risks weakening the yen and pushing inflation higher than needed — especially as Japan approaches full employment and the positive effects of a weaker currency diminish. He noted that exchange-rate moves remain an important transmission channel, and recent yen volatility underscores the economic costs of prolonged accommodation.

With inflation exceeding 2% for more than three years and wage pressures building, Noguchi said sustained real wage gains around 1% — expected sometime in fiscal 2026–27 — will be key to anchoring inflation at target. Until then, he urged the BoJ to strike a balance: moving neither too quickly, which could choke off wage momentum, nor too slowly, which risks destabilising prices. The next policy meeting is on 18–19 December, where markets see a slim majority chance of a rate increase.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Wood Mackenzie expects China’s oil demand growth to slow sharply over the next few years, approaching zero by 2027 as the country nears peak consumption.

• Senior analyst Alan Gelder said gasoline and diesel demand are already in decline, with only modest growth remaining in jet fuel — and even that driven mainly by petrochemicals rather than transport.
• Crude runs are expected to edge higher in 2026 compared with 2025, but weak underlying demand means growth will be limited.

Gelder highlighted large inventory builds earlier this year, followed by recent drawdowns as prices softened. He said the key uncertainty for global oil markets in 2026 is the extent to which China rebuilds commercial inventories, especially given limited growth in crude runs and rising refined-product exports. How much surplus crude ends up in Chinese storage will have a significant influence on the trajectory of global oil prices.

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The shift toward near-zero demand growth reduces China’s role as the global oil demand engine and places greater emphasis on inventory flows. Traders will closely track Chinese crude storage decisions, which could tighten or loosen balances quickly.

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Wood Mackenzie is a global energy and resources research and consultancy firm known for its analysis of oil, gas, power, metals and mining markets

• provides data-driven forecasts, asset valuations and strategic insights to governments, producers, traders and financial institutions
• firm is widely regarded as a leading authority on long-term energy trends and commodity market fundamentals.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.