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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9352; (P) 0.9381; (R1) 0.9428; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral and outlook remains bearish with 0.9408 resistance intact. On the downside, firm break of 0.9204 low will confirm larger down trend resumption. However, sustained break of 0.9408 will suggest that fall from 0.9660 has already finished. Intraday bias will be […]

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8518; (P) 0.8551; (R1) 0.8570; More… Outlook in EUR/GBP is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. More consolidations could be seen below 0.8737 short term top. Further rise is expected as long as 0.8518 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.8737 will resume the larger rally from 0.8221. However, sustained break […]

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7659; (P) 1.7800; (R1) 1.7937; More… Outlook in EUR/AUD is unchanged as consolidation continues below 1.8554 short term top. Downside of pull back should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.8854 at 1.7750. On the upside, firm break of 1.8554 will resume larger up trend. However, firm break of 1.7750 […]

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Guo Jiakun, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, noted on Thursday, “China and the US are not yet in talks on tariffs.”

• Any content about China-US economic and trade negotiations is ‘groundless and has no factual basis’.
• There have not been economic and trade negotiations between China and US.

This is just a warning to distrust any media leaks about negotiations or deals between the two given that the two countries have not spoke about these topics.

More:

• If US really wants to resolve the issue, it should lift all unilateral tariff measures against China.

The US proposed to ease the tariffs on China but said that it won’t be unilateral, so this Chinese demand is a big request. We’ll see if Trump eventually caves in again.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.50; (P) 161.99; (R1) 162.79; More… No change in EUR/JPY’s outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 164.16 will resume the rally from 154.77 to 164.89 resistance, and then 166.67. However, decisive break of 158.27 support will bring deeper decline back to 154.77 […]

The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.83; (P) 189.57; (R1) 190.86; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 190.06 resistance will extend the rebound from 184.35 to 195.95. Nevertheless, on the downside, break of 184.35 will target 180.00 low instead. In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are […]

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• China, US not yet in talks on tariffs.
• Respect is condition for any talks to happen.
• US needs to stop threats if it wants talks.
• US ‘tariff tsunami’ breaks WTO rules.

There’s nothing new here as Trump continues to show willingness to ease the trade war and make a deal but doesn’t want to call Xi first. The Chinese, on the other hand, are waiting for the US to make the first step and won’t budge on this.

Adam wrote about an important detail on Chinese Presidents here. In summary, Chinese Presidents nearly never pick up the phone. Therefore, Trump will have to be the first to pick up the phone.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The USD got a boost from
the positive Trump’s comments on China late Tuesday. We saw the bullish
momentum holding yesterday but it started to wane as disappointing news started
to filter through.

We see stronger reactions
to positive news because of overstretched positioning, so that will likely
continue to be the case even though in the medium term, the US Dollar should keep
on depreciating as the path of least resistance for the Fed remains to cut
rates.

On the JPY side, the
currency has been driven mainly by global events rather than domestic
fundamentals. Alongside the Swiss Franc, it’s been the favoured safe haven in
the currencies space and will likely continue to do so.

The negative impact on
the Japanese economy from tariffs uncertainty and the downward pressure on
inflation from the surging yen will keep the BoJ on the sidelines for the time
being.

USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY bounced from the key 140.00 handle and pulled all the way back
to the 143.50 level. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have
a better risk to reward setup around the major trendline to position for further
downside, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish
bets into the 151.00 handle next.

USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong resistance
zone around the 144.00 handle where we can find the confluence
of the previous swing levels and the minor trendline. The sellers will likely
pile in around these levels with a defined risk above the trendline to position
for a break below the 140.00 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will want
to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the major
trendline next.

USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this
timeframe. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline to keep pushing into
new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the
bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims
figures, while tomorrow we conclude the week with the Tokyo CPI. As a reminder
though, the market is focused on tariff related news at the moment, so the data
is not as market-moving as it used to be in the past months. The US Jobless Claims
could move the market though if we get a spike above the 260K level.

Watch the video below

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

J.P. Morgan expects the yellow metal to average $3,675 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2025, and reach $4,000 by the second quarter of 2026.