News

Gold is breaking historical norms. Outperformance versus the US Dollar (USD) matches a record set last year, and the 2025 range in Gold is the largest since 1980.

The UK Budget is largely priced into markets, with increased fiscal spending and taxes likely to shift the fiscal/monetary mix in a sterling-negative direction, limiting any lasting gains for GBP despite potential short-term relief, Société Générale’s FX analyst Kit Juckes reports.

The UK Budget is largely priced into markets, with increased fiscal spending and taxes likely to shift the fiscal/monetary mix in a sterling-negative direction, limiting any lasting gains for GBP despite potential short-term relief, Société Générale’s FX analyst Kit Juckes reports.

Singapore tops the 2025 Global Talent Competitiveness Index, bolstered by its robust education systems, sound governance and innovation-ready workforce.

Fundamental
Overview

The USD weakened across the
board yesterday following soft ADP data and a Bloomberg report saying that Hassett emerged as the
frontrunner for the Fed Chair position.

The greenback was already
under some pressure caused by Fed’s Williams endorsement for a December cut on Friday. The
probability for a December cut is now at 76%, which generally makes it a done
deal.

We won’t get much data
before the FOMC meeting, so the focus will likely be mainly on jobless claims
and ADP data. Weak data should keep weighing on the greenback, while strong
data could provide some short-term support. At the end of the day though, it’s
all about the FOMC decision and the following NFP and CPI reports.

On the GBP side, the market
sees an 85% probability of a rate cut in December and a total of 61 bps of
easing by the end of 2026 following soft UK data. Today, the focus will be on
the Autumn
Budget announcement which is going to be a key risk event for the pound.

GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD broke above the downward trendline and extended the gains into the
most recent swing high at 1.3215. The sellers will likely step in around these
levels with a defined risk above the swing high to position for a drop into new
lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase
the bullish bets into the 1.33 handle next.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we
get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a
defined risk below it to position for a rally into the 1.33 handle. The
sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish
bets into new lows.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for longs around the trendline
or above the major swing high, while the sellers will look for shorts around
the swing high or below the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we have the US
Thanksgiving holiday which is likely to make the final part of the week more
rangebound. Finally, on Friday we conclude the week with the preliminary
inflation data from the major Eurozone economies.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

In a recent analysis by UBS, Paul Donovan discusses the implications of the latest US Retail Sales data, which showed slight softness. Donovan emphasizes the importance of understanding the context of these numbers, particularly in light of inflation effects.

EUR/USD holds gains on Wednesday, although it remains capped below the 1.1600 line, trading at 1.1575 at the time of writing.

GBP/USD faces heightened downside risks as market-implied volatility and risk reversals signal expectations for a weaker Pound Sterling (GBP) ahead of the UK Budget, with a credible fiscal plan from Chancellor Reeves key to restoring investor confidence, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Michael Pfister note

NZD/USD has rebounded sharply from last week’s low, breaking a falling wedge pattern, with the 50-day moving average near 0.5730 now in focus as a potential hurdle for further gains, Société Générale’s FX analysts note.

It’s a big day for the UK and the pound. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to deliver her budget address at 12.30 GMT.