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The change in their forecast fits more with what the consensus is gearing towards now. As for next year, Nomura sees the Fed delivering 25 bps rate cuts each in March, June, and September.

Markets wanted something more from Fed chair Powell but he played it safe and labelled yesterday’s move as a “risk management” cut. He did also acknowledge that the decision was more focused on labour market risks, with risks to inflation having diminished recently but still not enough to be discarded. So, there’s some giving and taking but all in all it seems to be fitting with market pricing of ~44 bps rate cuts by year-end.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Summary As expected, the FOMC reduced the fed funds target range by 25 bps to 4.00%-4.25% at the conclusion of its meeting today, the first adjustment in nine months. Newly confirmed Governor Stephan Miran was the lone dissenter at the meeting, preferring to cut by 50 bps instead of 25 bps. The decision to ease […]

The post September FOMC: A “Risk Management” Cut appeared first on Action Forex.

New Zealand GDP fell 0.9% in Q2, adding pressure on the RBNZ to accelerate cuts, while Australia’s labour data, steady HK and China policy decisions, and US crypto ETF news rounded out the session. Markets saw modest FX moves on the data flow.

• China resists Fed easing, holds 1.40% rate as exports and stocks buoy outlook
• Yuan gains could trigger hundreds of billions in corporate dollar sales.
• Mercer says Trump’s trade and Fed pressure spur investor shift away from US assets.
• Australia loses 5,400 jobs in August, unemployment steady at 4.2%. What’s deal with that?
• Goldman Sachs AM sees Fed cutting 25bp in October and December after latest move
• AUD/USD has been marked down following the disappointing job loss numbers in August
• Australia August 2025 jobless rate 4.2% (vs. 4.2% expected)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1085 (vs. estimate at 7.1113)
• Meta launches $799 Ray-Ban Display AR glasses with neural wristband
• New Zealand dollar extending its losses after terrible data, forecasts for more rate cuts
• Westpac forecasts Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cuts in October and November
• Japan machinery orders +4.9% y/y (expected +5.4%)
• Hong Kong’s central bank follows the Fed, cuts base rate by 25bp to 4.5%
• Bank of England meeting preview – to slow bond sales, keep rates steady at 4%
• Reuters: China auto glut sparks discounts, gray markets, and survival fears for carmakers
• New Zealand Q2 GDP -0.9% q/q (vs. -0.3% expected)
• US SEC votes approve generic listing standards for new crypto ETFs
• Three police officers have been fatally shot – Pennsylvania, USA
• FOMC responses – Fed edging toward neutral, but sticky inflation may delay easing
• Deutsche Bank raises 2026 gold forecast to $4,000, silver outlook to $45
• Golden Trump statue with Bitcoin was installed outside Capitol before Fed rate decision
• The Central Bank of Brazil leaves its benchmark Selic rate unchanged at 15%, as expected
• Cat fight: Bessent threatened to punch Pulte in the face, Pulte is already taking revenge
• Preview: Australia’s jobs market cooling as unemployment set to rise modestly (muted AUD)
• investingLive Americas FX news wrap: Fed and Bank of Canada both cut a quarter-point
• Bank of Japan meeting begins today, rates expected to kept on hold – Nikkei report

New Zealand’s economy shrank 0.9% q/q in Q2, a result likely to be viewed as uncomfortably weak by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Governor Hawkesby recently noted the bank could cut faster if the data warranted, and today’s GDP print will strengthen the case for a 50bp move in August. Markets now see a cut in October to 2.5%, followed by a move to 2.25% in November. NZD/USD fell on the release.

In Hong Kong, the Monetary Authority lowered its base rate by 25bp in step with the Fed. By contrast, the People’s Bank of China left its main seven-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 1.4%, signalling no urgency to ease further.

From Australia, August labour force figures showed a net job loss, led by full-time positions. The unemployment rate held at 4.2% as the participation rate slipped. While the weak tone marginally pulls forward expectations for the next RBA cut, it is unlikely to be enough for action at the September meeting. AUD/USD dipped on the release but pared most of its losses.

Elsewhere, crypto received another boost as the US SEC approved new listing standards for spot crypto ETFs, clearing the way for products tied to tokens such as Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin. The change slashes approval time to around 75 days, with the first launches possible in October.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) +1.27%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) -0.1%
• Shanghai
  Composite +0.45%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) -0.5%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, left its key seven-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 1.40% on Thursday, signalling no urgency to ease policy even after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates hours earlier.

Analysts say resilient exports and a surging stock market near decade highs have given Beijing space to hold fire despite a slowing economy. Goldman Sachs economist Hui Shan noted that August data showed the downturn was less severe than expected, with authorities potentially deferring some stimulus to next year.

• Nomura’s Ting Lu cautioned that major easing could fuel a stock bubble, though a modest 10bp cut remains possible if markets correct.
• Other analysts expect policy support later this year to safeguard China’s growth target of “around 5%.”
• ANZ’s Xing Zhaopeng said further measures may come in Q4, but longer-term structural reforms under the upcoming October plenum remain a priority.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s yuan is approaching levels that could unleash heavy corporate dollar selling, as companies shift their holdings back into local currency. July data already show stronger demand for converting foreign exchange, and analysts say the momentum is building for yuan appreciation.

Dongwu Securities’ Lu Zhe estimates as much as $300 billion could be converted if the yuan strengthens to around 7.04–7.05, while Barclays’ Lemon Zhang projects $240 billion in sales if it reaches 7.08–7.10. Chinese firms currently hold about $700 billion in dollars.

The People’s Bank of China has been steering its daily fixing closer to 7.1 per dollar, seen as a signal it is comfortable with a stronger yuan, possibly as leverage in trade talks with Washington. But volatility and tariff risks mean corporates are expected to raise hedging, and some exporters may start worrying that yuan gains will erode profits from dollar holdings.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Donald Trump’s push to reshape global trade and pressure the Federal Reserve into cutting rates is prompting investors to trim exposure to US assets, according to Mercer LLC. Bloomberg carry the report.

Hooman Kaveh, Mercer’s global CIO, said more of the firm’s 3,900 clients — who oversee $17 trillion — are shifting funds into Europe, Japan, and other markets. He cited worries over tariffs, Fed politicisation, the US deficit, and a weaker dollar. “The start of Trump’s second term has been a trigger for genuine diversification,” he said.

US equities have lagged peers this year, and tariffs pose a dual threat of eroding margins or stoking inflation. A weaker dollar could intensify those pressures, making it harder for the Fed to ease. Trump’s repeated attacks on Fed officials and his effort to oust Governor Lisa Cook have added to investor unease.

Mercer clients are also boosting allocations to European and Japanese stocks, where valuations are more attractive, and to private markets such as AI-linked venture capital.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.