Follow the latest analyses and key economic, financial, and global market news in this section. Our team reviews the most important market events daily and provides comprehensive insights for traders and enthusiasts.
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.60 per cent. Inflation has recently picked up. Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and potential supply closer towards balance. More recently, however, inflation has picked up. Trimmed mean […]
The post (RBA) Statement by the Reserve Bank Board: Monetary Policy Decisions appeared first on Action Forex.
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.60 per cent. Inflation has recently picked up. Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and potential supply closer towards balance. More recently, however, inflation has picked up. Trimmed mean […]
The post (RBA) Statement by the Reserve Bank Board: Monetary Policy Decisions appeared first on Action Forex.
Bets for a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut jumped after soft jobs data but were cut back again after inflation data came in hot. The consensus was for no rate cut today, which is what we have.
From the statement accompanying the decision:
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at its November meeting in a unanimous decision, citing rising inflation pressures but heightened uncertainty around the economic outlook.
The central bank said inflation had recently picked up, and while part of the September quarter’s increase reflected temporary factors, the data also indicated underlying price pressures remain in the economy.
The RBA Board said it judged it “appropriate to remain cautious” and would continue updating its outlook as new information emerges. It noted that domestic activity is recovering, but warned that the overall outlook “remains uncertain” in both directions.
“The Board remains alert to the heightened level of uncertainty about the outlook in both directions,” the statement said, adding that policymakers remain focused on the RBA’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment, and “will do what it considers necessary” to achieve that goal.
The Bank’s central forecast now sees underlying inflation rising above 3% in coming quarters before easing back to around 2.6% by 2027, consistent with the trajectory outlined in the November Statement on Monetary Policy.
Labour market conditions remain “a little tight”, according to the statement, supporting wages and consumption even as the broader economy gradually cools.
——————————
Separately, the Reserve Bank of Australia sharply raised its core inflation forecasts in its November Statement on Monetary Policy, warning that price pressures will stay above target until the second half of 2026 and that the economy may be running hotter than previously thought.
The central bank said recent data suggest “there could be more excess demand in the economy than earlier estimated”, with stronger household consumption, a faster rebound in house prices, and still-tight labour conditions all contributing to upside risks.
The RBA now expects trimmed mean inflation to average 3.2% through mid-2026,
It sees headline CPI peaking at 3.7% in June 2026,
The upward revisions reflect what the RBA described as a “hump” in inflation stemming from the Q3 CPI jump, which it expects to persist until mid-2026.
Policy assumptions underpinning the outlook include a cash rate of 3.6% through end-2025,
suggesting the RBA expects to hold policy in mildly restrictive territory for longer.
On growth and employment, the bank forecasts GDP expanding around 2% annually through 2027, with unemployment steady near 4.4% and wage growth easing from 3.4% in 2026 to about 3% by end-2027. It noted that financial conditions have eased since the August rate cut, with policy now “closer to neutral” but still acting to contain demand.
The RBA also said global trade uncertainty has had limited impact on Australia so far, while domestic conditions appear firmer than expected, led by a rebound in consumption and property prices.
—
None of this is very dovish, and on balance its reasonable to say this is a tilt more hawkish from the Bank. The outlook now is only for a very … repeat very … gradual rate cut path ahead. There will be a long period of on hold before a cut. Inflation is forecast back to the mid rate only at the end of 2027.
—
Background to this:
—
Still to come is Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock’s press conference, due to begin at 3.30 pm Sydney time:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
MUFG expects the Bank of England to hold rates steady at this week’s policy meeting, with its first cut likely in December, senior currency analyst Lee Hardman said.
“Our base case is still a cut in December — I don’t think one softer CPI print is enough,” Hardman said, adding that by then policymakers will have more data and fiscal context following the government’s budget.
He noted that while a surprise move this week “wouldn’t be a huge shock,” the probability remains low. If the BoE does hold fire, Hardman said, “we might get an initial rally in the pound, but it will likely fade as markets refocus on December.”
—
Market pricing is around 30% for a rate cut. Goldman Sachs and Barclays are among those expecting a cut:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Key Highlights Gold started a consolidation phase after a dip to $3,885. A contracting triangle is forming with support at $3,970 on the 4-hour chart. WTI Crude Oil prices could struggle to recover above $62.20. EUR/USD is again moving lower and could drop to 1.1450. Gold Price Technical Analysis Gold prices corrected some gains and […]
The post Gold Consolidates After Correction As Traders Await Fresh Catalysts appeared first on Action Forex.
Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama says seeing one-sided rapid yen moves
—
Earlier:
—
USD/JPY has had a round trip today, with early lows around 154.20, a climb towards 154.50 Takaichi’s headlines before dribbling back to where we are as I update, around 154.22.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
End of content
End of content