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In an interview with Bloomberg TV on Monday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Stephen Miran argued that if the Fed maintains a restrictive stance of policy, it increases the chance that monetary policy will cause a downturn.

The combined company would bring together brands like Huggies and Kleenex with the likes of Band-Aid and Tylenol.

• Fed’s Miran: Will not commit to another dissent in December, things could change

• RBA preview: “material miss” on inflation erases rate cut bets
• ECB’s Kazimir: No time or need to fine-tune or overengineer monetary policy
• UK October final manufacturing PMI 49.7 vs 49.6 prelim
• ECB’s Simkus: Inflation to only shift marginally from target
• Eurozone October final manufacturing PMI 50.0 vs 50.0 prelim
• Germany October final manufacturing PMI 49.6 vs 49.6 prelim
• France October final manufacturing PMI 48.8 vs 48.3 prelim
• Italy October manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs 49.3 expected
• Switzerland October manufacturing PMI 48.2 vs 47.6 expected
• Spain October manufacturing PMI 52.1 vs 51.7 expected
• Switzerland September CPI Y/Y +0.1% vs +0.3% expected
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• ECB’s Nagel: There was absolutely no reason to change interest rates last week
• Market Outlook for the week of 3rd-7th November
• What are the main events for today?

The main highlight of the session was the Switzerland CPI report. The data missed across the board and weighed on the CHF, although it shouldn’t change much for the SNB as the central bank has
already ended its easing cycle and will need strong reasons to go back
into NIRP (negative interest rate policy).

SNB’s
Chairman Schlegel recently said that they expect inflation to pick up a
little in the next quarters. The latest SNB forecast is for inflation
to average 0.4% in Q4.

We then got the final manufacturing PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. Basically all of them beat the preliminary estimates but didn’t change anything in terms of market expectations given that the market focuses more on new information (preliminary reports).

We also had a few ECB speakers repeating the same old message that they expect inflation to remain around target in the medium-term and small or short-term deviations won’t call for a policy response. Some ECB members continue to add that the next move can even be a rate hike.

Lastly, we got Fed’s Miran repeating that he sees the neutral rate way below the current policy rate and that he wouldn’t focus too much on financial conditions for policy setting. Luckily, he doesn’t matter at all. The Fed voting members are now just 11 for me.

In the markets, the US dollar extended the gains but not against all the major currencies. It hasn’t made a new high versus the GBP, AUD, NZD and JPY. The largest gain on the session was of course against the CHF as the soft Swiss CPI report weighed on the currency.

In the stock markets, the mood remains positive with gains seen across the board, except the UK market which is basically flat on the day. The most notable mover has been the German DAX as the positive Nexperia news over the weekend boosted auto stocks.

Crude oil opened higher on OPEC pause news over the weekend but gave up all the gains and it’s now trading a bit in the negative. Gold and silver are slightly positive on the day but nothing notable there as we’re just consolidating before the next impulsive move on either side.

Lastly, on the bond market front, we are seeing higher yields across the board as the recent US-China deal and hawkish Powell turn are still reverberating in the rates markets.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Microsoft’s licenses enable the firm to ship Nvidia chips — involving its more advanced GB300 GPUs — to the United Arab Emirates.

EUR/USD extends losses for the fourth consecutive day on Monday, trading at 1.1515 at the time of writing after hitting fresh multi-month lows a few pips above 1.1500.

• Repeats neutral rate is quite a way below the current policy rate
• A lot of factors drive financial markets
• It is a mistake to make conclusions about monetary policy from financial conditions alone
• Some financial metrics are loose but housing conditions for example are tight
• Changes in the neutral rate mean policy has passively tightened despite Fed cuts
• If the Fed maintains a restrictive stance of policy, it increases the chance that monetary policy will cause a downturn
• The Fed could get to neutral in a series of 50 bps cuts but does not need 75 bps cuts; economy is not dysfunctional
• Being too data dependent makes policy too backward looking; you want to make policy on the forecast
• The Fed knows the size of population and other shocks that have hit the economy, provides confidence in the forecast
• The alternative data on inflation is not that useful; but on the labour market it does signal slowing
• Possible that there is distress in some financial markets that is masked from the Fed
• When there is a series of seemingly unconnected credit problems it could be a sign that policy is too tight

Fed’s Miran is an uber dove as he was placed there by Trump just to cut rates as fast as possible. He’s been dissenting in favour of 50 bps cuts since his appointment. Thankfully, the Fed is an independent body and policy decisions are implemented on a majority basis.

I personally haven’t read one single comment from him since he was appointed because it’s just a waste of time. No serious market participant cares about him. He’s just there to participate.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The Euro extends losses below 0.8770 after rejection at 0.8785 earlier on Monday.

Asset managers are seeking to capitalize on the popularity of exchange-traded funds. Experts say it’s to the benefit of many retail investors.

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There is scope for US Dollar (USD) to edge above 7.1280, but it is unlikely to be able to maintain a foothold above this level.