News

A standoff between the Netherlands and China over chipmaker Nexperia had prompted auto giants to warn of production outages.

EXPECTATIONS

The RBA is widely expected to hold the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.6% tomorrow after the “material miss” (quoting RBA’s Governor Bullock) on inflation. In fact, the Australian Q3 inflation report last week surprised significantly to the upside, with the Trimmed Mean figure (RBA’s preferred inflation measure) printing at 1.0% Q/Q versus the RBA’s 0.6% forecast.

At this meeting, we will get the updated SMP (Statement on Monetary Policy) with new economic forecasts. The near-term inflation forecast is likely to be revised higher given the renewed pressures and improved global economic activity. As a reminder, the RBA’s inflation target is the mid-point (2.5%) of the 2-3% band. The Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is now at 3.0%.

STATEMENT

The statement is likely to acknowledge the increase in underlying inflation and reiterate that the decline has slowed. If the central bank adds that there are upside risks to inflation, then it would be a slightly hawkish turn. The RBA is likely to repeat that the outlook remains uncertain and might note that the labour market data was softer than expected (although Governor Bullock dismissed it as volatile).

PRESS CONFERENCE

In the press conferece, Governor Bullock is likely to repeat that future policy decisions will be cautious, and on a meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent approach. She is unlikely to offer much in terms of forward guidance as the data will eventually shape their decisions (although we will likely need notable weakening in the labour market to force them to cut).

Given the market pricing, even some hawkish comments are unlikely to change expectations much, although we should see the probabilities for a December cut evaporate to near zero. Click here to read her most recent comments.

MARKET PRICING

• November cut: 7% probability
• December cut: 16% probability
• Total easing by the end of 2026: 22 bps (next cut expected in May at the earliest)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades cautiously against its peers at the start of the week. The British currency is expected to remain volatile amid uncertainty surrounding the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate policy, which will be announced on Thursday.

Jobs data and earnings are the two things that will dominate our coverage.

The US Dollar keeps trading within a narrow range, around 154.00, consolidating gains against a somewhat softer Japanese Yen.

EUR/JPY trades lower on Monday, stabilizing around 177.50 at the time of writing, down 0.10% for the day, as Japanese markets were closed on Monday for a national holiday.

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This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Governor of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS), Peter Kazimir, said during the European trading session that there is no need to alter or adjust the monetary policy as risks to inflation and the economy remain broadly balanced.

Risk currencies are not seeing the typical boost one would have expected after the US and China agreed on a one-year trade truce last week. We think there are two factors currently at play keeping the dollar the dominant story, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.