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Bank of Japan policymakers appear increasingly aligned on the need to continue normalising interest rates, though opinions differ on timing and conditions, according to the summary of the central bank’s October meeting released Sunday US time.
Several members said the BOJ should raise rates further if its economic and price forecasts hold, with one noting that conditions for another move are “almost met.” Others stressed the importance of confirming that companies maintain active wage-setting behaviour before tightening policy, particularly as firms finalise pay plans for next year in response to U.S. tariffs set at 15%.
Some members urged patience given uncertainty surrounding global markets and Japan’s new government’s fiscal stance, though one warned that delaying hikes too long could force more aggressive action later. Another said raising rates closer to a “neutral” level now would help prevent distortions in the economy.
The summary highlighted a cautious but steady shift toward policy normalisation. Members said Japan is approaching an environment conducive to further rate adjustments if wage and inflation trends remain supportive. One policymaker suggested that a rate increase soon could help counter inflationary risks from a weaker yen but emphasised the need for careful examination before acting.
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The BOJ’s latest summary signals growing comfort with the idea of further tightening, reinforcing market expectations for a potential move in early 2026. Maybe even December 2025. Traders will watch upcoming wage data and comments from board members for confirmation of a December or January hike window.
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From the day of the meeting:
Don’t want to read that lot? Here is TD’s take on the decision and Ueda, seems a reasonable one:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser
Earlier:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has signalled a major shift in fiscal policy, saying her government will drop the annual target for achieving a primary budget surplus in favour of a multi-year framework.
Speaking in parliament on Friday, Takaichi said progress in restoring Japan’s finances will be judged “over a span of several years,” effectively diluting the country’s long-standing fiscal consolidation goal.
Her administration plans a new stimulus package to offset rising living costs and boost investment in growth sectors and defence. Analysts see the move as another sign of Tokyo prioritising growth over budget tightening, even as public debt remains more than twice the size of the economy — the highest among major economies.
The change marks a clear break from past administrations that used the annual primary balance target as proof of fiscal discipline. Takaichi, a known advocate of government spending, has criticised the metric as too restrictive and out of step with global norms.
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The shift away from Japan’s annual fiscal target signals a more expansionary policy stance under Takaichi, reinforcing expectations of continued fiscal stimulus. Markets will likely view the move as supportive for growth but negative for the yen and bond stability.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said the country’s monetary policy faces an “unusual challenge,” as the economy continues to run above its potential even after last year’s recovery began, leaving limited room for near-term rate cuts.
Speaking at a UBS conference in Sydney, Hauser said that demand was “slightly” above potential output when GDP growth resumed last year — the tightest recovery phase since the early 1980s. While this strength reflects resilient activity and strong employment, it also limits how far the RBA can loosen policy without reigniting inflationary pressures.
The deputy governor noted that Australia’s economic capacity remains tight, with little slack left in labour or supply conditions
Hauser said rate cuts could resume from late 2025 to support growth but stressed that sustainable disinflation would require stronger productivity and investment in new capacity.
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The RBA last week kept its cash rate unchanged at 3.6%, pausing after three cuts earlier in 2025.
Policymakers have turned more cautious amid stronger inflation, firmer household demand, and a rebound in the housing market. The central bank now expects inflation to remain above its 2–3% target range until at least mid-2026, reflecting continued capacity constraints.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
China has suspended its export restrictions on key strategic metals used in semiconductors and defense technologies, easing a year-long ban that had targeted shipments to the United States.
News from Sunday, in brief:
China had originally imposed the export controls in December 2024, citing national security concerns.
Beijing also said it is pausing stricter end-user and end-use checks on dual-use graphite exports to the U.S., which were introduced at the same time as the original ban.
The latest move follows a similar announcement on Friday, when China suspended additional export controls imposed in October on certain rare earth elements and lithium battery materials.
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These metals are vital for semiconductor manufacturing, military electronics, and renewable technologies.
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China’s suspension of critical metal export bans may ease global supply concerns for chipmakers and defense industries, signalling a possible easing in U.S.-China trade frictions.
Globex has opened for the week, emini equity indexes are up a bit on the positive news like this and this:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
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