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China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.6 below forecasts (50.9) in October

China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.6 below forecasts (50.9) in October

Goldman Sachs warned that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown is set to inflict the largest economic hit of any shutdown on record, both in scale and duration.

The bank said the current halt in federal operations appears broader than the 35-day partial shutdown of 2018–19, impacting far more agencies and government functions. While a short disruption of two to three weeks would mostly reflect lost output from furloughed workers, Goldman said a longer shutdown could significantly weigh on federal spending, investment, and even private sector activity.

Assuming the shutdown extends for about six weeks, Goldman estimates

• it will reduce U.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 by 1.15 percentage points (q/q annualized),
• followed by a rebound of roughly 1.3 points in the first quarter of 2026 as delayed federal purchases and investment are realized.

The bank concluded that while activity may recover in early 2026, the near-term drag could mark the sharpest quarter-on-quarter disruption caused by any U.S. government shutdown.

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Goldman’s projection underscores the rising economic risk from a prolonged U.S. government shutdown, with markets likely to price in near-term growth weakness before any first-quarter recovery.

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Trump touts himself as a dealmaker but has so far been unable, more likely unwilling though, to do anything to end the the shut down.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. President Donald Trump said in an interview with CBS News that the United States will prevent China from obtaining Nvidia’s most advanced semiconductor technology, underscoring Washington’s continued focus on restricting the flow of cutting-edge artificial intelligence hardware to its strategic rival.

Trump reiterated that American-made high-performance chips are vital to national security and innovation leadership, saying the U.S. “will not let China have Nvidia’s most advanced chips.” The comments reinforce his administration’s hard line on tech export controls and come as tensions between Washington and Beijing persist over access to AI and semiconductor supply chains.

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I posted this earlier:

UBS: U.S./China talks modestly positive, AI demand underpinning market rallies

I mentioned the US and China had papered over crakcs in the relationship, there is no deal. It can;lt be too much longer before one side or the reignites public tensions.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.0867 compared to the Friday’s fix of 7.0880 and 7.1171 Reuters estimate.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.

• The previous close was

PBOC injects 78.3bn yuan at 1.40% via 7-day reverse repos

• Drains net 259bn yuan in today’s open market operations

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

EUR/USD edges lower and continues its losing streak for the fourth successive session, trading around 1.1530 during the Asian hours on Monday.