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If Trump wanted Russia to lose the war in Ukraine or regime change in Iran/Venezuela, what would be his first move?

The wise move would be to pull on whatever levers possible to get oil prices down in order to minimize a spike later. You could do that by leaning on Saudi Arabia and allies in OPEC to open up the taps.

That appears to be what’s happened as OPEC has pumped (at least officially) well beyond what anyone expected when Trump rolled into office. That has WTI down to $61 and a broad belief that the crude market will be oversupplied in the year ahead.

But what’s Part 2? Today we’re learning that Trump is preparing to attack military installations within Venezuela. I happen to think the 700-900 mbpd of Venezuelan exports (a third of that is controlled by Chevron) is insignificant and not at risk but it may speak to Trump’s strategy. The bigger levers are Iran — which has already been struck — and Russia with its 12 mbpd of production.

TotalEnergies CEO is out with a notable comment today.

“I am more bullish […] because I begin to realize that these sanctions will have a real impact in this market,” he said. “I think the market is underestimating what it means.”

I’m cautious on oil at the moment because OPEC is going to add even more barrels this weekend but a real geopolitical shock could be a gamechanger and at some point in 2026, crude might be the best trade out there.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD is trading at new highs as the week draws to a close — a sharp turnaround from the early-week tone, when sellers were in control through Tuesday and Wednesday. That changed after the Fed’s rate cut, as Chair Powell emphasized that the Fed is not on a pre-set path to ease again in December. The comments triggered a rebound in the dollar, pushing USDCAD higher.

Technically, the pair reclaimed the broken 200-day moving average at 1.3927, retested it successfully yesterday, and then extended higher. The price also broke above the 200-hour MA at 1.39855 after briefly closing below it on Thursday while holding the 100-hour MA support near 1.3967. Today’s break above the 200-hour MA drew in fresh buyers and drove the pair to new weekly highs.

The next upside target comes at last Friday’s high of 1.4038. A sustained move above that level would open the door toward the October swing area between 1.4060–1.4067, followed by the monthly high near 1.4079.

On the downside, the 1.4000 area remains the near-term risk level, with support layered at 1.4004 (swing level) and the psychological round number itself.

Bottom line: Momentum has shifted firmly to the buyers heading into the weekend, with the trend favoring further upside while 1.4000 holds as support.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

I have been writing about the k-shaped economy this week but we’re increasingly in a k-shaped stock market. The S&P 500 hit a record this week but yesterday, 9% of stocks in the S&P 500 hit a 52-week low.

This is a market that’s being carried by some Mag7 names and the AI trade.

AbbVie (ABBV) — Fell 1.6% after another weak quarter in its aesthetics segment despite strength in new anti-inflammatory drugs.

Amazon (AMZN) — Up 13.5% on strong earnings ($1.95/sh vs. $1.57 est.) and $180.2B in revenue, beating expectations.

Apple (AAPL) — Added 2% after topping Q3 earnings and revenue forecasts and guiding for a strong holiday quarter.

Brighthouse Financial (BHF) — Soared 24% after FT said Aquarian Holdings is in talks to buy and take the insurer private.

Charter Communications (CHTR) — Fell 5% as EBITDA missed ($5.56B vs. $5.61B est.), offset by slightly better revenue.

Chevron (CVX) — Gained 1.5% as profits from the $53B Hess acquisition lifted oil output and cash flow.

Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) — Up 1% after beating Q3 estimates and announcing a business realignment and asset sales.

Dexcom (DXCM) — Dropped 12% after management warned 2026 revenue growth could trail Wall Street’s 15% forecast.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) — Shares down 0.8% despite beating Wall Street expectations for a sixth straight quarter, driven by new oil production in Guyana.

Intuitive Machines (LUNR) — Up 5% after an $8.2M Air Force contract extension for nuclear spacecraft power systems.

Netflix (NFLX) — Up 1.3% premarket; approved a 10-for-1 stock split and reportedly exploring a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery assets.

Newell Brands (NWL) — Sank 18% on weak earnings and guidance cut; now expects EPS of $0.56–$0.60 and revenue down 4.5–5%.

Nvidia (NVDA) — Flat; CEO Jensen Huang said he still hopes to sell Blackwell chips to China but has no near-term plans.

Ramaco Resources (METC) — Up 13% after signing a deal with the U.S. Energy Department to advance rare earths mining.

Strategy (MSTR) — Climbed 6% after revenue ($128.7M) topped estimates, helped by bitcoin exposure and software growth.

Twilio (TWLO) — Surged 11% as Q3 results beat estimates ($1.25/sh on $1.3B revenue vs. $1.08/sh est.).

Western Digital (WDC) — Gained 9% after earnings ($1.78/sh on $2.82B revenue) beat expectations.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Berkshire’s operating profit generated from the conglomerate’s wholly owned businesses including insurance and railroads jumped 34% in the third quarter.

“I don’t rest easy with the idea that something is not possible,” former Vice President Kamala Harris said on Steven Bartlett’s Diary of a CEO podcast.

CNBC’s Charlotte Reed will travel to Copenhagen to speak with Novo Nordisk’s new CEO after a bumpy few months.

Trump’s bathroom update follows his major makeover of the Oval Office, and the demolition of the White House East Wing, to be replaced by a large ballroom.

On Air Force One, Trump said he would love to get rid of the remaining 10% fentanyl tariff on China.

At this rate, China is going to have the lowest tariffs in the world.

Also:

• Says there are no strikes on Venezuela

I wonder if that leak to the Miami Herald was just to see what kind of alarms it raised or to flush something out in terms of intelligence.

• Says he will not restart negotiations with Canada

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD moved higher early in the week, but the Fed’s less-dovish tone turned the tide — sending the AUD lower and the USD broadly higher. Stocks slipped and yields rose in response to the more hawkish message from Chair Powell. That helped the push lower as well.

Still, the downside move has found support near the 200-hour and 100-day moving averages, both converging around 0.65366. That confluence gives traders a clear risk-defining level, and buyers have stepped in to defend it. With risk contained below, “buyers are in play.”

The next upside targets sit first at the day’s high, and more importantly, the 100-hour MA at 0.65684 — a level broken to the downside yesterday and now acting as a key barrier. A move above it would shift momentum back in favor of the bulls.

If buyers can’t hold the line and price slips below the converged MAs, however, the bullish case fades and downside pressure returns.

Bottom line: The AUDUSD sits at a key crossroads — buyers have a defined shot from support, but they have work to do to wrestle full control. If they cannot do it, and the price falls below the dual MAs below, that bias will shift fully in favor of the sellers.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

A surprise in this week’s Fed decision was a hawkish dissent from Kansas City Fed President Schmid, who didn’t want to hike rates. In his published comments today regarding the dissent, one of the things he highlighted was the tailwind from ‘financial conditions’. That’s a code phrase from the Fed that mostly means ‘the stock market’ and what he’s saying is that rising stock prices will boost growth, or at least signal that the Fed isn’t leaning too hard on the brakes.

An index published by Goldman
Sachs shows that broader financial conditions are currently the most accommodative they have been in three-and-a-half years and that they’ve only been looser twice since 1990 (ex pandemic).

National Bank notes that in other loose periods in 1999 and 2018, the Fed was tightening and now it’s doing the opposite.

A model developed by the Fed suggests that, at their current level, financial conditions
could add as much as 1% to growth over the next twelve months. That’s all well and good, but when you add to these figures the
anticipated effect of the three other elements covered in recent days (AI investment, the wealth effect, and fiscal policy), there is
reason to fear that the economy could overheat in 2026. (Keep in mind, we haven’t even mentioned the supply shock that could be
caused by tariffs and the reduction in the labour supply due to stricter immigration policies.) This is certainly a risk that is increasingly
on our minds.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.