News

The worst-case scenario for the US economy at the moment — and this is something Powell hinted at yesterday — is a covid-style halt in trade. We don’t have to look back to far to see how that might play out as it led to shortages and inflation. It also might have led to widespread economic problems if not for massive financial and monetary stimulus (that isn’t likely to come this time).

Here is Craig Fuller the founder of FreightWaves:

Trucking market conditions are soft, but with imports and exports collapsing, the industry is in for a very rough season in coming months.

The winds are picking up, but the hurricane is still offshore.

Here is Ryan Peterson Founder and CEO of Flexport:

Two of our American customers devastated by the tariffs gave up and sold themselves to their Chinese factories in the last week.

He has also warned that thousands, and then millions, of American small businesses, including many iconic brands, will go bankrupt this year if the tariff policies on China don’t change.

Earlier this week I highlighted the crash in forward freight bookings.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Learn Advanced Option Spreads: Iron Condors, Butterflies & Multi-Leg Mastery

As your stock options education progresses, it’s time to explore advanced spread strategies—tools that allow you to express market-neutral or range-bound views with defined risk and enhanced premium collection. This guide focuses on iron condors and butterfly spreads, powerful setups for traders who have a grasp on verticals and are ready to add complexity for higher precision.

These strategies are ideal for traders who:

• Want to profit from sideways markets

• Prefer defined risk and reward

• Are learning options with a methodical, rules-based approach

Iron Condor: Range-Bound Profit Machine

An iron condor combines a bull put spread and a bear call spread, creating a neutral strategy that profits when the stock stays within a specific range.

Structure:

• Sell a put (strike A)

• Buy a lower put (strike B)

• Sell a call (strike C)

• Buy a higher call (strike D)

All options share the same expiration. The goal is for the stock to remain between strike A and strike C by expiration.

Example:
Stock XYZ is trading at $100.

• Sell $95 put for $1.00

• Buy $90 put for $0.50

• Sell $105 call for $1.00

• Buy $110 call for $0.50

• Net Credit = $1.00

Max Profit: $1.00 (if XYZ stays between $95 and $105)
Max Loss: $4.00 (spread width $5 – $1 credit)

Why It Works:

• Profits from time decay and range-bound price behavior

• Defined risk on both sides

• Can be adjusted (rolled) as market moves

Butterfly Spread: Low-Cost, High-Precision Strategy

The butterfly is a tightly focused range trade using three strikes, designed to profit when the stock lands near the middle strike at expiration.

There are two common types:

1. Call Butterfly (used in bullish or neutral markets)

2. Put Butterfly (used in bearish or neutral markets)

Structure (Call Butterfly):

• Buy one lower-strike call

• Sell two middle-strike calls

• Buy one higher-strike call

Example:
Stock ABC is trading at $50.

• Buy 1 $48 call for $2.00

• Sell 2 $50 calls for $1.20 each ($2.40 total)

• Buy 1 $52 call for $0.60

• Net Debit = $2.00 + $0.60 – $2.40 = $0.20

Max Profit: $1.80 (if ABC closes at $50)
Max Loss: $0.20 (initial cost)

Why It Works:

• Extremely low-cost strategy

• Defined risk/reward with a high payout potential

• Perfect for range-bound earnings plays or event-driven setups

Which Strategy to Choose?

Tips for Learning and Using Advanced Spreads

• Set Alerts Near Outer Strikes: Be proactive about adjustments

• Trade High-Volume Underlyings: Reduces slippage and improves fill rates

• Avoid Low IV Environments for Premium Selling

• Exit Early When Profits Reach 60-70% of Max Potential

Common Pitfalls for Beginners

• Forgetting Assignment Risk: Short options close to expiration may be exercised

• Misjudging Volatility: Iron condors struggle in breakout markets

• Ignoring Commissions: Multi-leg strategies can rack up fees on small accounts

Wrapping Up: Elevating Your Options Trading 101 Toolkit

Iron condors and butterfly spreads give options traders powerful range-bound income strategies with defined risk and measurable probability. Mastering these tools can significantly enhance your options trading playbook.

Once comfortable, you can experiment with broken-wing butterflies, double diagonals, and iron butterflies—further variations that offer nuanced control and payout flexibility.

Continue your stock options education with us at ForexLive.com (to evolve to investingLive.com later this year), where traders of all levels learn options with practical examples, clear strategy, and a commitment to real-world success.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

President Trump has for months privately discussed firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, according to people familiar with the matter cited by the WSJ.

• Trump hasn’t made a final decision about whether to try to oust him before his term ends in May 2026
• Trump has spoken with Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, about potentially firing Powell before his term ends and possibly selecting Warsh to be his replacement
• Warsh advised against firing Powell in conversations in February
• Warsh gave the impression that the Fed job had all but been offered to him once Powell’s term expires
• Others close to the president have spoken to Trump about firing Powell as recently as early March
• Bessent has consistently pushed back against Trump advisers who want to replace Powell
• Some advisors argue that law isn’t strong enough to maintain Powell’s job if Trump pushes

Warsh is largely seen as Trump’s preferred replacement for Powell. Warsh was a finalist for the job when Trump picked Powell.

You wonder where these leaks are coming from? Who stands to gain from these leaks? Maybe the WSJ has good sources but Trump hates leaks and if I had to guess, this was leaking by a rival of Warsh’s who wants the job for himself.

Earlier today Trump wrote: “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”

The report also notes that six years ago when there were similar rumblings from Trump, Fed leaders decided that if Powell’s status as chair of the Fed’s board was called into question, they would elect him to lead the FOMC, which is traditionally the same person but the FOMC has the power to elect its own Chair.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

If you missed it, about two hours ago, Fox Business’ Charlie Gasparino was out with this report:

If the current trajectory of the negotiations remain, White House officials expect to soon announce a trade deal w Japan, I am told by people w direct knowledge of the matter. No details on exact timing and this could always change given the volatility of the talks, but the smoke signals are positive so far. Also no details on type of deal ect. According to one White House official: “We’re in a great place with a lot of people…Trump didnt get here because he isn’t persuasive…Easter might slow things up but we’re making progress.” Story developing

That’s probably the wind behind the sails of the stock market in the second half of the day today but note that Japanese reports aren’t as positive.

I also think the scope of the first deal — whatever it is — will be critical. Japan has a $68 billion trade deficit in goods with the US so it’s a tough test but I hope the US can drop the 10% tariff floor. If not, and if the US is looking for things like reparations for military defense, then it’s going to signal a tough slog on trade.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.