News

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  • IMF warns Asia’s resilience is at risk from a stronger US dollar

    Asia’s resilience to U.S. tariffs is at risk if the supportive financial conditions that have helped so far reverse, a senior IMF official warned.

    Krishna Srinivasan, the IMF’s Asia director, said low interest rates and a weak dollar have allowed Asian economies to weather the tariff shock and borrow cheaply.

    But he warned these favourable conditions may not last.

    • If interest rates start rising… that could have a significant impact on Asia, where debt servicing costs… has been pretty high,
    • adding that a dollar appreciation is also “a big risk.”

    The IMF’s regional outlook upgraded 2025 growth for Asia to 4.5%, citing strong, tariff-related exports. However, the report warned risks are tilted to the downside, projecting a slowdown to 4.1% in 2026.

    Srinivasan praised Asian central banks for managing inflation due to their independence, but stressed they must remain focused on price stability and not be “burdened with multiple mandates.”

    —

    This IMF warning acts as a significant risk-off signal for Asian assets, directly challenging the recent optimism in the region. It implies that Asian currencies (like the won, baht, and rupiah) are vulnerable to a sharp reversal against the U.S. dollar. Furthermore, it threatens Asian equity markets (MSCI Asia ex-Japan) by highlighting the dual risks of slowing 2026 growth and rising corporate debt costs, which could squeeze profit margins and deter investment.

    This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

  • Is Intel Stock a Buy After Its Full 9.1% Earnings Rise?

    Intel’s Turnaround Gains Momentum After Solid Q3. Bloomberg Analyst Says Execution Will Be Key Key and I Ask If There’s More Meat After the Earnings Move?

    Intel’s long awaited turnaround story is finally beginning to take shape. Despite what appeared to be a slight miss in its fourth quarter guidance, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Semiconductor Analyst Pindu Sivani explained that this was largely a misunderstanding. The market’s consensus estimates incorrectly included Altera revenues, which Intel no longer reports following its Altera business exit.

    When adjusted for that, Intel’s Q4 guidance was actually solid, coming on the heels of a strong Q3 earnings beat. Sivani said the company’s ongoing execution on process technology and cost efficiency supports a credible recovery narrative.

    Foundry and Node Progress Strengthen the Long Term Case

    Intel’s 18A node progress, combined with capacity expansion in Arizona, is creating what Sivani called a structural cost advantage that will improve margins over time. She highlighted improvements in gross margin trajectory and OPEX discipline, adding that these metrics suggest Intel is regaining operational control.

    Government partnerships, NVIDIA collaboration, and SoftBank’s investment provide long term tailwinds, even though they do not yet contribute meaningfully to near term earnings. Sivani noted that these developments are strategically important to Intel’s foundry ambitions and positioning within the U.S. semiconductor ecosystem.

    AI Manufacturing Still a Wait and Watch Story

    Asked whether Intel can compete in the booming AI chip manufacturing race, Sivani called it a “wait and watch game.” The company will not be able to prove its competitiveness immediately, she said. Instead, investors and customers will be watching how 18A yields and cost structure improve over coming quarters.

    According to Sivani, consistent delivery on these milestones will be critical to establishing customer confidence, especially as Intel seeks to become a third party foundry supplier at advanced nodes like 14A.

    investingLive View. Execution Is Everything

    While sentiment around Intel has improved, much of the stock’s recent rally stems from optimism over policy support and partnerships rather than immediate earnings power. As Sivani emphasized, execution over the next year will determine whether Intel’s comeback truly sticks.

    Patience, discipline, and continued delivery will be key. But there’s another important point I would like to make as the positive earnings is only part of the story.

    My Note: What the Options Market Is Telling Us About Intel Stock

    Looking at the options market, the expected move ahead of earnings was approximately 9.1%. Intel Corp. (INTC) closed after hours at $41.63, which is about 8.4% above its regular session close, almost perfectly aligned with what the options market priced in. The after hours high was $41.61, so in practice, Intel reached that target zone exactly, considering normal bid ask spreads.

    That fulfillment suggests that patient profit takers and programmed trading algorithms were ready to lock in gains once the expected move was achieved. This naturally raises the question. Is there still much “meat” left on the bone for retail investors and traders looking to jump in now?

    If you are already holding Intel and wondering whether to trim some exposure, this could be a logical point to dilute a portion of your position, for example, around 20%, in line with how professional traders often manage risk around fully priced in moves.

    Conversely, if you are a short seller, this may be an area worth monitoring. After all, with Intel shares up roughly 103 percent since the start of 2025, and the stock now hitting its options implied ceiling, this could represent a tactically attractive zone to consider short exposure, especially if the price consolidates or forms a descending channel (potential bull flag) pattern in the coming sessions.

    The earnings results were indeed good, but were they that good to justify much more upside immediately? Ultimately, broader market direction, particularly the Nasdaq’s next move toward or away from new all time highs, will play a major role in determining whether Intel continues higher or starts cooling off. Additional upcoming tech earnings may provide the next big clue. As always, do your own research as we at investingLive.com are not giving financial advice and always invest and trade at your own risk only.

    This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

  • ICYMI – JPMorgan says gold could double by 2028

    I posted earlier from Goldman Sachs:

    Similar now, with strategists at JPMorgan believe the metal’s price could more than double within the next three years.

    • dismissed the recent tumble, the biggest one-day drop in more than a decade, as a technical profit-taking event by commodity trading advisers, not a fundamental reversal by retail investors, who have been steady buyers.
    • core of JPMorgan’s bullish case is a structural shift in investor behaviour. They argue that investors are increasingly using gold as a hedge for their equity exposures, replacing the role traditionally held by longer-dated bonds.
    • this strategic change, the bank notes, was accelerated after recent tariff-related volatility (post “Liberation Day”) caused both stocks and bonds to fall simultaneously, breaking their traditional inverse relationship and rendering bonds an ineffective hedge.
    • JPMorgan calculates that nonbank investors currently have a 2.6% allocation to gold. If investors were to shift the approximately 2% of their portfolios traditionally held in long-dated bonds into gold instead, the target allocation would rise to 4.6%.
    • Factoring in projected growth in other financial assets, the strategists conclude that “the gold price would have to rise by 110% for the gold allocation to increase from 2.6% currently to 4.6% by 2028.”

    —

    JPMs note reframes gold’s recent sharp sell-off as a technical, short-term event, providing a strong “buy the dip” signal to long-term investors.

    By positing a new, structural source of demand—portfolio hedging—JPMorgan’s analysis suggests gold’s rally is not just a temporary “debasement” trade but a fundamental repricing. This could create a more resilient floor under the price, as investors may now be conditioned to buy gold both when they fear inflation and when they fear an equity market drawdown.

    This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

  • South Korea seeks major US investment package amid tariff talks, smaller than US$350bn

    South Korea’s Industry Minister has revealed the country is seeking a major U.S. investment package, directly linking the request to the success of ongoing tariff negotiations.

    • In a move that formally connects U.S. investment commitments to trade policy, the minister stated that the desired sum would be “smaller than $350 billion”, seeks smaller cash portion in $350 billion U.S. investment package for tariff deal

    This announcement positions a large-scale U.S. investment deal as a key component for resolving the current tariff disputes between the two nations.

    —

    This news formally links U.S. investment to trade policy, creating uncertainty for South Korean markets. A successful deal could significantly boost the South Korean Won (KRW) and equities, particularly in the tech and auto sectors, by removing tariff risk. However, linking the two raises the stakes; any sign of a breakdown in these high-stakes negotiations could lead to sharp sell-offs in the same assets, as markets would have to price in both failed investment hopes and the resumption of trade tensions.

    This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

  • China needs fiscal push to fix trade war damage, says PBOC adviser

    How many times have we heard this? A key adviser to China’s central bank has called for a “stronger fiscal push” to repair the damaged finances of households and corporations, warning that recent signs of economic resilience are concealing the true impact of the U.S. trade war.

    Speaking at the Bund Summit in Shanghai, Huang Yiping, a member of the PBOC’s monetary policy committee, argued that while booming exports supported third-quarter growth, the domestic economy remains fragile. He pointed to weak inflation, sluggish private investment, and high unemployment as evidence of weak confidence amid tariff uncertainty.

    • “The government, including the central bank, needs to take major steps to repair the balance sheets of households, enterprises, local governments, and possibly financial institutions”
    • specifically urged the government to stabilize the property market to restore consumer confidence
    • also emphasized that stronger household incomes are essential for lasting consumption growth, cautioning that subsidies offer only “short-term relief” and have already contributed to industrial overcapacity.

    Huang was cautious about the central bank’s own ability to act, noting there is “limited room for aggressive easing,” thereby placing the burden of stimulus firmly on fiscal policy.

    His comments, which cast doubt on China’s ability to withstand trade pressures without broader government support, were echoed by top officials at this week’s Central Committee meeting. The committee reaffirmed the need to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and overall economic expectations.

    —

    This report signals that further policy support for the Chinese economy will likely come from fiscal (government) channels, not monetary (PBOC) ones.

    If so, this shifts the focus onto infrastructure and domestic consumption, which could support Chinese equities (CSI 300) and industrial commodities. However, the downbeat assessment of domestic confidence and the admission of “limited room” for rate cuts will likely cap optimism and put a floor under Chinese bond yields, as the market digests that the PBOC cannot ride to the rescue with aggressive easing.

    This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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