Follow the latest analyses and key economic, financial, and global market news in this section. Our team reviews the most important market events daily and provides comprehensive insights for traders and enthusiasts.
He made the comments on CNBC.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
The USDCAD fell in the Asian and the early European session, and found strong support at its 200-hour moving average (currently at 1.3632) and the low of the swing area near 1.3630, helping to stall the early decline in today’s trading. The bounce from that support area kept the buyers in play and helped shift short-term momentum back to the upside. The pair is also back above the 38.2% of the move down from the June high at 1.3676.
The next major test for buyers comes at the 50% retracement of the move down from the June high, which sits near 1.3676, followed by the key swing area between 1.36858 and 1.3692. That zone has acted as a key inflection point on multiple occasions in recent weeks and will be a crucial hurdle if buyers are to regain further control.
For now, holding above the 38.2% and the 200-hour MA keeps the recovery prospects alive for buyers. A move back below would start to negate the current bounce and reintroduce downside pressure, with support at 1.3616 (100 hour MA) and 1.3591 and 1.3579 as possible targets.
As it stands right now, however, the bulls are back in the driver’s seat, but they’ll need to prove themselves above 1.36763 and 1.36923 to turn the bias more convincingly bullish.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The USD is mixed vs the 3 major currency pairs – the EUR (-0.13), the JPY (+0.37%), and the GBP (+0.19%) to kickstart the US/North American session. The pair is higher vs the AUD after RBA held its policy rate steady at 3.85%, defying the expectations of a 25 basis point cut, citing the need for more data to confirm that inflation is sustainably tracking toward its 2.5% target.
IN the video above, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, and also a look at the AUDUSD.
Despite inflation easing to 2.1% in May—its lowest since October 2024—the RBA noted that recent data was slightly stronger than anticipated.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasized a cautious and gradual approach to rate easing, stating that while recent inflation data was interpreted differently by the market, the RBA prefers to wait for more comprehensive data—especially the upcoming quarterly CPI on July 30. She noted that monthly inflation figures are too volatile, and the central bank wants confirmation that inflation is still on track before acting. Bullock downplayed prior market excitement over a potential 50 bps cut discussed in May, clarifying it was only considered as an option but quickly dismissed in favor of a more measured 25 bps move. She also highlighted that policy discussions reflected only minor differences, mainly about timing rather than direction, and that international risks played a role in the cautious stance. Ultimately, Bullock reaffirmed that the current pause doesn’t signal an extended hold, but rather a decision to play it safe until stronger data justifies a cut.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers called the decision disappointing, emphasizing the government’s efforts to ease cost-of-living pressures.
The AUDUSD is higher by 0.83% off of the decision and retracing much of the declines seen in trading yesterday. The pair is back above the 200 and 100 bar MAs on the 4-hour chart after dipping below each yesterday to test the lows from June 24 and June 25. The pair is back testing a swing area between 0.65357 to 0.65537. Move above and traders will be eying the highs from last week and the year at 0.6590.
On Monday tariffs returned to the spotlight as Trump sent warning letters to 14 nations, including Japan and South Korea, about higher duties set to take effect August 1. While less severe than those proposed in April, the new tariffs exceed the current 10% baseline. Trump described the deadline as “firm, but not 100% firm,” leaving room for negotiation. The new duties exclude previously announced sector-specific tariffs, and the omission of India and the EU from the letters has fueled speculation of pending trade deals. Japan and South Korea signaled willingness to negotiate, with both nations seeking exemptions or adjustments.
Meanwhile, China warned Trump against reigniting their tariff dispute, highlighting the fragility of a recent trade truce between the two nations. A vague “framework” deal was reached in June, but details remain unclear. China now faces an August 12 deadline to strike a deal and avoid the return of steep tariffs, which could exceed 100% if reinstated.
The major US indices are mixed after declines yesterday Dow industrial average is lower while the S&P and NASDAQ today. Both the S&P and NASDAQ came off record closing levels on Thursday of last week. The S&P fell -0.79% and the NASDAQ felt -0.92%. A snapshot of the market currently shows that futures are implying:
In the US debt market, yields are higher after yesterday’s move to the upside:
in other markets:
The economic calendar is light with the Canada Ivey purchasing managers index for June as the only release. It came in at 53.8 not seasonally adjusted and 48.9 seasonally adjusted last month.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
US copper prices are up 11% after Trump said he would be imposing a 50% tariff on copper imports. The CME contract last traded at $5.59 in a surge following the announcement.
“Today we’re doing copper,” Trump said at a Cabinet meeting before floating the 50% number.
It’s not a shock as he’s floated the idea of copper tariffs for some time.
It’s a strategy that’s tough to make sense of though. The US needs imported copper and will need much more in order to build out the needed investments in the grid, broader infrastructure and electrification. I’m not sure how making it more expensive to import raw materials needed for those factories makes the US more competitive.
There is certainly a need to incentivize the supply of mines in the US and elsewhere but a changeable tariff policy hardly achieves this. In any case, it takes many years — often decades — to build a copper mine so this will do nothing but drive up costs for the foreseeable future.
US officials have highlighted smelting capacity as a priority as that’s now concentrated in China so we could see some action on that but I’m not sure how tariffs on imports in any way incentivize anyone to build a smelter.
In terms of trading, there is set to be a big premium on US copper relative to elsewhere. With a 50% tariff, that premium can only be captured by companies like Freeport-McMoran with sizeable US mines.
There might be second-order effects though. A tariff on US imports may signal the importance and scarcity of copper, prompting other countries to protect their supplies or secure stockpiles. It also highlights my long-held copper bullish thesis — which is now hitting long-term highs.
Notably, this isn’t just a front-month move as copper futures out to May 2026 are up more than 10%.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
Tensions
in the Iran-Israel conflict have eased, and the oil market has largely avoided
any significant supply disruptions. On top of that, the IEA doubled down on its
mid-June forecast that demand will stabilize by the end of the decade. Given
all this, it’s no surprise that oil
prices have dropped back below $70.
This is
only good news for oil-importing countries, since lower prices mean lower
spending and greater economic benefit. But for exporters, the opposite is true.
Naturally, one would have expected OPEC+ to take steps to boost prices again,
for example by keeping production stable at its July meeting.
But the
complete opposite happened: contrary to logic, the cartel not only increased
the number of barrels produced per day, but to a higher figure than many had
expected: 548,000 barrels per day, instead of the 411,000 previously planned.
In addition, another equal increase could be announced for September.
It might
be thought that this has been done to discipline members such as Kazakhstan,
which have been exceeding their production quotas. And it would make sense if
oil prices were to fall as a consequence, but the complete opposite happened:
after an initial decline, a barrel of Brent rose to $69 a barrel on Monday.
As for
the stock market reaction, indexes including the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq
went red on Monday. But it was not due to fears that rising oil prices would
fuel inflation and slow the Fed’s
path of rate cuts. Rather, the drop came on
disappointing news about tariff negotiations with South Korea and Japan.
Why was
this decision made, and why did prices rise?
Starting
with the first question: according to OPEC+, the decision to increase
production was based on a “stable global economic outlook and currently healthy
market fundamentals”. But it is unclear where this optimism comes from, given
that major trade disputes remain unresolved and the Fed is in no hurry to cut
interest rates.
As for
the second question, prices may have risen in response to Saudi Aramco’s $1 per
barrel increase in its Arab Light crude, which puts it $2.20 above the regional
benchmark for Asian buyers. Hopes for progress in trade negotiations may also
have played a role. If so, the basis for further price rises looks rather
shaky.
Thus,
logic suggests that prices are likely to fall unless a new geopolitical crisis
hits a region critical to oil supply.
The
continued decline in the number of active drilling rigs in the United States,
despite Donald
Trump’s calls to “drill, baby, drill,” also suggests that shale
producers are not feeling bullish about the market. As for investment bank
analysts, many expect oil prices to fall back toward $60 per barrel in the
fourth quarter.
But, as
always, the market may still hold some surprises.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.