News

Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) rose from previous 2.6% to 2.8% in September

• Prior Month MoM -0.1%, YoY 1.9%
• CPI MoM 0.1% vs 0.0% estimate
• CPI YoY 2.4% vs 2.3% estimate.
• CPI Median YoY 3.2% vs 3.0% estimate. Prior month 3.1% revised to 3.2%
• CPI Trim YoY 3.1% vs 3.0% estimate. Prior month 3.0%
• CPI common 2.7% versus 2.5% last month
• CPI BoC Core 2.8% versus 2.6% last month
• CPI BoC Core MoM 0.2% versus 0.0% last month.

Some details:

• Prices for gasoline fell 4.1% year over year in September after a 12.7% decrease in August.
• On a year-over-year basis, prices for travel tours fell 1.3% in September following a 9.3% decline in August. Despite typically declining on a month-over-month basis in September, travel tour prices rose 4.6% in the month.
• Consumers paid 4.0% more year over year for food purchased from stores in September, following a 3.5% increase in August. Faster price growth was driven by increased prices for fresh vegetables (+1.9% in September, compared with -2.0% in August) and sugar and confectionery (+9.2% in September, compared with +5.8% in August).
• Following a year-over-year increase of 1.7% in August, the clothing and footwear index rose 0.8% in September.

The pricing for October now shows 19 basis points of cuts which is down from 21 basis points prior to the release.

For the end of year the current expectations is for 25 basis points of cut down from 28 basis points prior to the release.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USD is starting the day higher with the JPY the biggest mover with a gain of close to 0.80% as Japan’s Takaichi becomes the PM. The EUR and GBP are both down -0.22% vs the greenback. In the video above, I take a look at the technicals given the move higher in the greenback today and outline the key targets and risk defining levels.

Japan has it’s first female PM after Japan’s LDP leader Takaichi secured enough votes to assume the role (as expected). Takaichi leans dovish on interest-rates. She supports maintaining a loose monetary stance and expansionary fiscal policy, prioritising growth over tightening.

Incoming Japanese Finance Minister Katayama commented that it is desirable for the foreign exchange (FX) market to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals, making no comment when asked about potential Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hikes. This sentiment reiterates recent commentary from the outgoing Finance Minister, Kato, who also declined to comment on specific FX levels but noted recently seeing one-sided, rapid moves and emphasized the importance of stability reflecting fundamentals.

Meanwhile Bloomberg, suggests the Bank of Japan is closer to a rate hike, but that there is little need to rush and no urgency to hike rates next week. Current market pricing for a 25 basis point (bps) hike is for a 20% chance next week with a 44.8% chance in December.

The Canada CPI will be released at 8:30 AM with the expectation for 0.0% for the headline MoM and 2.3% up from 1.9% last month.

A snapshot of earnings released this morning shows mostly BEATs on both EPS and Revenues. Northrup Grumman did miss on the Revenues. Overall, earnings so far has been been better than expectations :

• Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT): EPS of $6.95 (BEAT vs. $6.36 expected) and Revenue of $18.6bn (MET vs. $18.54bn expected).

• RTX Corp (RTX): EPS of $1.70 (BEAT vs. $1.45 expected) and Revenue of $22.48bn (BEAT vs. $21.38bn expected).

• Coca-Cola Co (KO): EPS of $0.82 (BEAT vs. $0.78 expected) and Revenue of $12.5bn (BEAT vs. $12.39bn expected).

• General Motors Co (GM): EPS of $2.80 (BEAT vs. $2.26 expected) and Revenue of $48.6bn (BEAT vs. $45.25bn expected).

• 3M Co (MMM): EPS of $2.19 (BEAT vs. $2.07 expected) and Revenue of $6.52bn (BEAT vs. $6.24bn expected).

• PulteGroup Inc (PHM): EPS of $2.96 (BEAT vs. $2.86 expected) and Revenue of $4.40bn (BEAT vs. $4.3bn expected).

• Northrop Grumman (NOC): EPS of $7.67 (BEAT vs. $6.46 expected) and Revenue of $10.42bn (MISSED vs. $10.70bn expected).

• GE Aerospace (GE): EPS of $1.66 (BEAT vs. $1.45 expected) and Revenue of $12.18bn (BEAT vs. $10.37bn expected).

The major US stock indices are modestly higher:

• Dow industrial average +38.42 point
• S&P index +4.62 point
• NASDAQ index +11.98 points

Looking at the US debt market:

• 2-year yield 3.459%, -0.5 basis points
• 10 year yield 3.978%, -1.0 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.568%, -1.1 basis point

Looking at other markets,

• Crude oil is trading up $0.38 at $57.40.
• Gold is down sharply by $130 or -2.97% at $4226. The price yesterday moved up to test the high prices from October 16 and October 17 of last week and found willing sellers. The price is now below the 100 hour moving average at $4273.16.
• Silver is down -$2.55 or -4.87% at $49.80
• Bitcoin is down $-1930 at $108,650

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The updates follow the travel company’s major overhaul in May, which brought services such as catering and personal training to its app.

In an exclusive interview Nike CEO Elliott Hill says he’s betting on a “return to sport” to revive the brand.

• Do keep a watchful eye on EUR/CHF
• Gold drops amid yet another volatility spike, profit-taking
• Heads up: ECB president Lagarde to speak later today
• What are the main challenges for Japan’s first female prime minister Takaichi?
• Japan’s Nippon Ishin co-head Fujita says this is a genuine conservative reform government
• What are the main events for today?
• Switzerland September trade balance CHF 4.07 billion vs CHF 4.10 billion prior
• FX option expiries for 21 October 10am New York cut
• Japanese yen falls as Takaichi wins key vote to become next prime minister
• Sanae Takaichi wins Japan lower house vote, set to become first female prime minister
• In this market, just “buy shiny stuff” – SocGen
• Waiting on that TACO moment
• Standard Chartered lifts its China’s 2025 GDP forecast to 4.9% (from 4.8%)

It’s been an empty session in terms of data releases and newsflow. Nevertheless, we saw some interesting moves across markets.

The Japanese Yen weakened across the board as Sanae Takaichi became the first female Prime Minister. Recall, she’s a fiscal dove, so the market expects dovish policies ahead and a delay in BoJ rate hikes.

We have also seen a pullback in precious metals with silver falling by more than 5% at some point. There was no catalyst for the move, so it might have been just usual profit-taking. Given the parabolic surge of the last months, aggressive pullbacks could become the normal, unless we finally get a bearish catalyst to trigger an even bigger correction.

In the FX market, the US dollar remains a tad stronger but overall the performance has been mixed. Bitcoin is down more than 2% on the day with the crypto market diverging from the equity market despite the positive risk sentiment. US Treasury yields pulled back a bit but remain above Friday’s lows.

In the American session, the main highlight will
be the Canadian CPI report. The CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.3% vs 1.9%
prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.0% vs -0.1% prior. The
underlying inflation measure, the CPI Trimmed Mean Y/Y, is expected at
3.0% vs 3.0% prior (it’s been hovering around 3% since February 2025).

BoC
Governor Macklem spoke last week and he delivered a couple of dovish
comments that suggested a rate cut in October was coming no matter what. The market
increased the probabilities from 68% to 86% now. By the end of 2026 the
market expects one more rate cut bringing the terminal rate to 2.00%,
which would be below the lower bound of the BoC’s estimated neutral
range (2.25%-3.25%).

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Gold was rejected at the $4,380 area for the second time on Monday, and the precious metal has lost more than $100 on Tuesday, reverting the previous day’s gains, with precious metals hammered by an improving market sentiment and a stronger US Dollar.US President Trump calmed markets on Monday, anno