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Fundamental
Overview
The USD strengthened a bit
on Friday following some positive Trump’s comments on China as Treasury yields
bounced and erased the Thursday’s losses. Overall, the US dollar performance
has been mixed as markets have been driven by quick changes in risk sentiment
since Trump’s tariffs threat.
On the domestic side, the
US government shutdown continues to delay many key US economic reports. The
dollar “repricing trade” needs strong US data to keep going, especially on the
labour market side, so any hiccup on that front is weighing on the greenback.
The BLS will release the US
CPI report on Friday despite the shutdown, so that’s going to be a key risk
event. That will need to be seen in the context of US-China relations and any
negative shock by that time though. If things go south, then the CPI will not
matter much as growth fears will trump everything else.
On the GBP side, we haven’t
got any meaningful change in the fundamentals. The BoE left interest rates
unchanged at the last meeting but slowed the pace of QT. The forward guidance
was mostly the same with the focus being more on the inflation side now. The UK
continues to have a serious inflation problem with high core CPI, high wages
and rising consumer inflation expectations.
We saw some dovish
repricing following the soft UK employment report with the market now seeing 11
bps of easing by year-end and 50 bps by the end of 2026. This week we have the
UK CPI report which is going to be more important for the BoE.
GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD probed below the key 1.3332 level a couple of times in the past
two weeks but eventually the breakout got invalidated and the price bounced
back strongly. If the price rises all the way back to the 1.3588 level, we can
expect the sellers to step in there with a defined risk above the resistance to
position for a drop back into the 1.3332 level. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the
1.3789 level next.
GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor support zone around the 1.3365 level. If we get a
pullback, we can expect the buyers to step in there with a defined risk below
the support to position for a rally into the 1.3588 level. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop
into new lows.
GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 1.3443 level. This is where
we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to
position for a pullback into the 1.3365 support. The buyers, on the other hand,
will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The
red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
On Wednesday, we have the
UK CPI report, while on Friday we get the US CPI and the US Flash PMIs data. Keep
in mind that the US-China developments continue to be a key market focus.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
Palladium Futures Technical Analysis: Testing the August Pivot Channel
I’m Itai Levitan from investingLive.com, and today we’re revisiting Palladium futures (PA DEC25) through a broader one-hour technical perspective.
investingLive.com — previously ForexLive.com — delivers real-time market news and analysis across forex, stocks, commodities, and global markets, providing traders and investors with fast, data-driven insights to support informed decision-making.
Earlier today, I published “Palladium Technical Analysis: What’s Next After a 14% Collapse Since Friday,” which explored the recent selloff through our proprietary orderFlow Intel system. That piece focused on what the underlying order flow data revealed about buyer and seller behavior and where institutional traders might be accumulating positions.
This follow-up takes a technical charting perspective using the one-hour timeframe to explore where Palladium stands after the retest of its August pivot channel — and what may come next. See the following Palladium Technical Analysis Video from Today:
In the Palladim Analysis Video Above: From the August Pivot to the Present
The current structure traces back to the August 27, 2025 pivot low, formed after roughly a 20% correction from the June–July highs. That low established a major structural base, and since then Palladium has traded inside a rising yellow channel that has defined the market’s trajectory for nearly two months.
After breaking above the channel, price advanced to $1,550 on October 9, confirming strong momentum.
It then backtested the upper boundary, held it successfully, and pushed higher — a bullish continuation pattern when an upward-sloping channel turns into support after breakout.
This rally extended to the 50-week high of $1,695 on October 16, before reversing sharply.
The Collapse and the Retest
Friday’s decline was extraordinary — from $1,692.5 down to $1,510.5, a −9.68% drop within one session.
In less than two days of futures trading, Palladium fell just over 14%, reaching today’s low of $1,456.5.
Technically, that move perfectly retested the same rising channel drawn from the August pivot, a critical area that often determines whether a longer-term uptrend survives or fails.
Given the magnitude of the selloff, the fact that price is stabilizing near the $1,500 round number — a strong psychological magnet — suggests that the market may be preparing for a short-term rebound or controlled retracement.
Key Technical Context for Palladium Futures Today
VWAP (1,501.5) – The volume-weighted average price remains near the 1,500 handle. A decisive move above this level would indicate renewed buyer control.
Point of Control (1,489) – A crucial short-term “line in the sand” between bulls and bears. Staying above it maintains the constructive bias.
Value Area Low (1,477) – Also today’s session low, reinforcing this zone as the first structural support.
Value Area High (1,512) – The next breakout threshold. A confirmed close above 1,512 could open the door toward 1,520–1,535, where the first upper VWAP deviation sits.
Palladium at an interesting technical crossroad…
From a pure technical standpoint, Palladium is sitting at an important inflection zone.
The market has retested its long-term channel and key value levels, and so far, the structure remains orderly rather than impulsive, implying potential for a controlled rebound.
For traders, this area presents a legitimate contrarian long setup within the 1,477–1,489 support cluster — provided that risk is managed carefully and partial profits are taken progressively if price moves higher.
As discussed in the earlier orderFlow Intel report, the structure still supports a bullish bias, though confirmation depends on Palladium holding above 1,489 and reclaiming VWAP around 1,501.5.
In summary:
After one of its steepest two-day declines in years, Palladium futures are once again testing the same rising channel that launched the August rally.
Whether this becomes a second rebound leg or a trend failure will hinge on how price behaves between 1,489 and 1,512 in the coming sessions.
For more detailed trade setups, including partial profit strategies and stop placement logic, follow the investingLive Stocks Telegram channel for real-time updates.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.
This paves the way for Takaichi to be elected as the first ever female prime minister of Japan in the vote tomorrow. After all the drama with Komeito leaving and what not, we’re finally seeing the dust settle. Sure, the LDP party is now much weakened and this coalition government isn’t as strong a faction as the one before. But for now, it’s enough to keep the vultures from circling and allows for things to move forward – at least for the time being.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
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