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  • Westpac: US dollar strength driven by yen weakness and global policy divergence

    Westpac says the US dollar’s gains are not growth-driven, given shutdown risks to consumption and investment.

    • Europe and Asia ex-Japan are showing continued resilience, contrary to the dollar’s appreciation.

    • Japan’s leadership change may bring looser policy and a weaker yen, supporting USD/JPY.

    • China’s renminbi is seen as Asia’s relative outperformer amid steady growth and expected stimulus.

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    The US dollar’s rise this month is not being driven by stronger growth expectations at home but by relative developments abroad, according to a new Westpac analysis.

    The bank said the prolonged US government shutdown is likely to dampen household consumption and business investment, undermining the case for domestic-led currency gains. Instead, global policy shifts and relative performance across regions appear to be doing the heavy lifting for the greenback.

    Westpac noted that Europe and Asia (excluding Japan) have both shown resilient activity and diminishing downside risks, a backdrop that would typically weaken the dollar rather than support it.

    However, Japan remains an exception. The appointment of Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister, if it comes, is widely seen as paving the way for easier monetary policy and a softer yen, indirectly underpinning the dollar’s strength.

    In contrast, Westpac highlighted China’s renminbi as the best-positioned Asian currency, saying the country has managed 2025’s uncertainty relatively well and is expected to step up economic support measures in coming months.

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    Westpac’s analysis suggests the greenback’s rally may be more about relative policy expectations than fundamentals, with Japan’s dovish tilt offsetting resilience in Europe and Asia. The call implies limited near-term downside for USD/JPY but room for CNY outperformance if Chinese stimulus accelerates.

    This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

  • Nomura: China likely to drop specific growth target in 15th Five-Year Plan

    The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) will be discussed by China’s leadership this month.

    • Nomura expects Beijing to omit a specific growth target, focusing on resilience, security, and inclusiveness.

    • The plan carries greater significance amid global influence and domestic property-market challenges.

    • The final plan will go to the National People’s Congress in March 2026.

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    Nomura expects Beijing to avoid setting a specific GDP growth target in its upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), opting instead to prioritise themes such as economic resilience, national security, and social inclusiveness.

    The Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee will meet in Beijing from October 20–23 to discuss the plan, which will outline China’s medium-term economic and social development framework. The final version is scheduled to be submitted to the National People’s Congress for approval in March 2026.

    Nomura said the next plan may carry greater strategic importance than the current 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025), reflecting China’s expanded global influence and the persistent challenges from the prolonged property-market downturn that began in 2021.

    While acknowledging that the 14th plan achieved several policy goals, the bank said there remains “considerable room for improvement” as Beijing seeks to adapt its economic model to slower growth, demographic shifts, and structural reforms.

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    Nomura’s outlook signals a shift in China’s policy emphasis from quantitative growth to qualitative stability, implying continued policy support for strategic sectors but fewer stimulus measures aimed at short-term expansion.

    This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

  • S&P: Trump’s tariffs to cost $1.2 trillion, consumers bear most of burden

    S&P Global projects global tariff costs of $1.2 trillion in 2025.

    • About two-thirds of that cost is expected to be passed on to consumers, not absorbed by companies.

    • Tariffs act as de facto taxes on supply chains, diverting profits toward governments and logistics costs.

    • S&P says the impact estimate is likely conservative given rising input costs and weaker output.

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    S&P Global estimates that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will cost global businesses around $1.2 trillion in 2025, with consumers expected to bear the majority of the burden.

    In a new white paper released Thursday, S&P said its figure is likely conservative, based on data from about 15,000 analysts covering 9,000 companies. The report found that only about one-third of the total cost will be absorbed by companies, while two-thirds will ultimately fall on consumers through higher prices and reduced output.

    S&P analysts said tariffs and trade barriers effectively act as taxes on global supply chains, diverting resources toward governments, logistics costs, and infrastructure investments. “Collectively, these forces represent a transfer of wealth from corporate profits to workers, suppliers, governments, and infrastructure investors,” the report said.

    Since April, the White House has introduced 10% tariffs on all U.S. imports and added targeted duties on items such as autos, timber, and kitchen cabinets. Officials argue the measures will shift the cost burden to foreign exporters, but S&P’s analysis suggests consumers are likely to face the largest impact.

    Lead author Daniel Sandberg wrote that with real output declining, “consumers are paying more for less,” indicating that the consumer share of tariff costs may be even higher than current estimates.

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    S&P’s trillion-dollar tariff estimate underscores the inflationary risk of U.S. trade policy and potential margin pressure on manufacturers. The findings suggest tariffs could weigh on global demand and complicate central-bank easing paths.

    This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

  • When the credit bogeyman crashed Wall Street’s overcrowded dinner table

    Wall Street already had a full plate this week — rare earths turning into geopolitical lightning rods, the AI trade wobbling under bubble whispers, a government shutdown choking off vital data flow, and a labour market flashing early warning lights — all while stocks sit perched at the highs of the year, fat and complacent.

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